Archive for April, 2015

Bullpen Report: April 30, 2015

Huston Street saved his ninth game of the year with a large thanks to Mike Trout for doing this. Street allowed four base runners and was somehow able to only allow one earned run, even including Trout’s game saving catch. Street owners should be thankful for Trout, as this could have been a disaster of an outing. Today’s earned run was the first allowed on street this year and he will enter his next appearance with an impressive 1.00/1.95/3.59 ERA/FIP/xFIP line. This is the Bullpen Report, but Mike Trout is so good he becomes the lead.

Sean Doolittle continued his rehab, throwing a 25-pitch bullpen today.  Assuming no set backs, Doolittle should have a few more bullpens before starting the rehab appearances in the low minors. The A’s have only handed Tyler Clippard two save opportunities thus far, so Clippard owners expecting a few saves while Doolittle comes back from injury might be out of luck with him nearing a return. However, Clippard should seamlessly move back to his familiar set up role, netting holds and vulture wins.

Drew Storen wasn’t given a save opp but he still pitched a perfect inning with two strikeouts, securing the win against the Metropolitans. It’s a pain when your closer gives up runs on a work day, so it’s refreshing for Storen owners to see him pitch a clean inning in a non-save situation. Also of note in this game, Nationals prospect Sammy Solis made his majorleague debut, throwing two scoreless innings, allowing one hit and striking out one as well. Solis is an older prospect but was mentioned by Kiley McDaniel as a top 20 prospect for the Nationals earlier this year. Solis has a power arm and was touching 96+ mph in his outing tonight. Every year there are young arms that come up and are quite impressive, Solis might be a sleeper to keep an eye on and could factor into more higher leverage innings as the season moves on.

Brett Cecil didn’t enter the game with a save situation, but he still threw a scoreless ninth, holding the four run lead for the Blue Jays. He allowed a base hit but otherwise retired all the other batters without issue. Innings like this, regardless of a save situation or not will go a long way towards Cecil maintaing the job. As we mentioned before, the biggest impediment to Cecil’s save total now may not be his fellow bullpen mates but whether or not Aaron Sanchez stays in the rotation. Roberto Osuna entered the game in the sixth and finished the seventh with Aaron Loup pitching the eighth. This might be the order of operations moving forward, but it certainly looks like Cecil’s job to lose for now.

Closer Grid:

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Closer First Second DL/Minors
Arizona Addison Reed Brad Ziegler Evan Marshall
Atlanta Jason Grilli Jim Johnson Luis Avilan
Baltimore Zach Britton Darren O’Day Tommy Hunter
Boston Koji Uehara Junichi Tazawa Edward Mujica
CHI (NL) Hector Rondon Pedro Strop Jason Motte
CHI (AL) David Robertson Jacob Petricka Zach Duke
Cincy Aroldis Chapman Jumbo Diaz Tony Cingrani Sean Marshall
Cleveland Cody Allen Bryan Shaw Scott Atchison
Colorado John Axford Rafael Betancourt Boone Logan Adam Ottavino
Detroit Joakim Soria Al Alburquerque Joba Chamberlain Joe Nathan
Houston Luke Gregerson Chad Qualls Pat Neshek
KC Wade Davis Kelvin Herrera Ryan Madson Greg Holland
LAA Huston Street Joe Smith Vinnie Pestano
LAD Yimi Garcia Chris Hatcher Pedro Baez Kenley Jansen
Miami Steve Cishek A.J. Ramos Mike Dunn
Milwaukee Francisco Rodriguez Jonathan Broxton Will Smith
Minnesota Glen Perkins Caleb Thielbar Brian Duensing Casey Fien
NY (NL) Jeurys Familia Carlos Torres Buddy Carlyle Jenrry Mejia
NY (AL) Andrew Miller Dellin Betances David Carpenter
Oakland Tyler Clippard Evan Scribner Dan Otero Sean Doolittle
Philly Jonathan Papelbon Ken Giles Luis Garcia
Pittsburgh Mark Melancon Tony Watson Arquimedes Caminero
St. Louis Trevor Rosenthal Jordan Walden Seth Maness
SD Craig Kimbrel Joaquin Benoit Dale Thayer
SF Santiago Casilla Sergio Romo Jeremy Affeldt
Seattle Fernando Rodney Danny Farquhar Yoervis Medina
TB Brad Boxberger Kevin Jepsen Ernesto Frieri Jake McGee
Texas Neftali Feliz Shawn Tolleson Keone Kela Tanner Scheppers
Toronto Brett Cecil Aaron Loup Roberto Osuna Steve Delabar
Wash. Drew Storen Aaron Barrett Blake Treinen Casey Janssen

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]


RotoGraphs Audio: The Sleeper and the Bust 4/30/2015 – Greene & Hutch

Episode 223

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris discuss the injury news related to Jed Lowrie, Albert Pujols, Alcides Escobar, Archie Bradley, Anthony Rendon, Mat Latos, and Phil Hughes. They also touch on the call-ups of Tim Cooney and Jack Leathersich (and how it relates to Rafael Montero, who ended up getting hurt during his spot start on Tuesday). And finally they look at some recent performances from Ryan Braun, Denard Span, Hanley Ramirez, Shane Greene, Drew Hutchison, Dallas Keuchel, Mike Pelfrey, and Ubaldo Jimenez.

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MASH Report (4/30/15)

• Since my last MASH Report, 11 players have gone on the DL and not one came off. Injuries every-where.

Masahiro Tanaka will be out until at least the end of May with wrist tendinitis and a forearm strain. His damaged elbow hasn’t gotten any worse since his last MRI.

Tanaka had been scheduled to start Wednesday against the Rays, but instead went on the 15-day disa-bled list a day after he arrived at Yankee Stadium on Tuesday reporting discomfort in his wrist. The Yankees said that the MRI showed no changes to Tanaka’s partially torn elbow ligament.

Tanaka will refrain from throwing for seven to 10 days and then will have to rebuild his stamina with a Minor League rehab assignment.

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NL Outfield Tiered Rankings: May

NL OF Tiers: March (Preseason) 2015
Also, David Wiers’ AL OF Tiers: May

This is my second ever installment of tiered rankings so, I admit, I’m still figuring out how to properly balance a hitter’s present and future values. It’s too easy to rank them by, say, their current ESPN Player Rater rankings, but it would be foolish to still rank them simply by expected end-of-season value, as I did in March.

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The Sophomore Report: Betts, McHugh, Odorizzi

We always read a lot about prospects and rookies but the coverage tends to fall off the map after the conclusion of a player’s freshman season. This ongoing series will chronicle the successes and failures of the sophomore class to help determine whose rookie season was a harbinger of even better things to come, and whose was blanketed in smoke and mirrors.

Previous Pieces:
The Sophomore Report Week 1
The Freshman Report
The Prospect Stock Watch

George Springer, OF, Astros: Houston is undoubtedly one of the biggest feel-good stories of 2015 to date and the scary news for the AL West is that the fast start could be sustainable. The team has been getting great pitching but the hitting has yet to truly take off and a number of batters are hitting below .200 — including Springer. Despite those struggles, he’s still having an impact at the plate. He’s still managed to produce a .300+ on-base percentage and eight of his 18 hits have gone for extra bases. Once on base, he’s used his solid speed to nab eight bases in nine tries (in only 20 games). Striking out at 33% is definitely going to keep Springer, 25, from hitting for a high average but he should get into the .230-.250 range once he gets hot. [Value Steady]

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RotoGraphs Audio: Field of Streams 4/30/2015

Episode 19 – So Much Dart-Throwing

The latest episode of “Field of Streams” is live!

In this episode, Dylan Higgins and Brad Johnson discuss a weird split mini schedule, a popular stack with a weather risk, identifying Tim Cooney, some cheap shortstop options, a bad matchup for Alfredo Simon, Jeffrey Braden Francoeur having DFS relevance, adjusting a contest pick, and Brad’s bullpen reports.

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The Daily Grind: deGrom, Norris, Maxwell

Agenda

  1. Glaringly Obvious Stacks
  2. Daily DFS – deGrom and Norris
  3. Tomorrow’s Targets – Wilson, Quintana, Maxwell, Aybar
  4. Factor Grid

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Scott’s Miscellany – Stolen Base Opportunities

The title of the article is an allusion to Schott’s Miscellany, which you should definitely check out if you never have and feel compelled to know that a group of larks is called an exaltation or that a member of the 32nd degree of Freemasonry is known as a Sublime Prince of the Royal Secret.

–Stolen Base Opportunities–

I did something similar to this a few weeks ago when I looked at RBI relative to plate appearances with runners in scoring position, which I used as an estimate of RBI opportunities. For stolen bases, I decided to define an opportunity as (1) a plate appearance that (2) features at least one received pitch—e.g. the first pitch was not put in play—where (3) the runner in question is on first base and (4) second base is open. Obviously, that’s imperfect for a variety of reasons. Not all plate appearances have the same number of pitches. Counts can matter. And sometimes runners steal third base. Still, I think it’s a decent attempt at a simple measure of how frequently a runner had the opportunity to attempt a stolen base.

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2015 AL Starting Pitcher Tiers: May

It’s tier update time! I’m notoriously stubborn when it comes to changing my opinion of a player and three or four starts is far too small a sample to convince me to make any real dramatic adjustments. However, there are some scenarios in which I will reconsider — a change in fastball velocity, a change in pitch mix, an injury, or perhaps the pitcher’s defensive support performing better or worse than expected. That’s really about it. I care little for actual results at this point unless there’s a significant change in results not explained by the aforementioned factors. Like, if Mark Buehrle was suddenly striking out more than a batter per inning. My xK% equation is fantastic in small sample sizes since it’s based on per-pitch metrics and not innings or batters faced. But still, the underlying components themselves could quickly change.

As a reminder, the tiers are named after the best characters from the FXX show, Man Seeking Woman.

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Roto Riteup: April 30, 2015

Today’s Roto Riteup was fueled by late night coffee.

On today’s agenda:
1. Revisiting my love of Adam Lind
2. Rick Porcello’s strong outing
3. Time to drop Homer Bailey
4. Streaming Pitching Options
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