Archive for June, 2016

#2xSP: 7.4-7.10

Happy week of July 4! This’ll be the last one of these for a couple weeks as we plow through the All Star Break, but so far so good on season four of #2xSP after a bumpy season three.

Here’s what we’re working with so far:

24-23 record
4.05 ERA
8.3 K/9
2.9 K/BB
1.36 WHIP
37 quality starts

There are multiple good options to look at this week, so in addition to the three recommended you can also look at Junior Guerra (20.7% ESPN, @WAS, v. STL) and Matt Moore (17%, v. LAA, @BOS). Here are this week’s recs, with opposing team wRC+ in parentheses:

LHP Sean Manaea – 4% ESPN – @MIN (88), @HOU (100)

Manaea looked solid against a pretty good Giants offense last time out — 5.2 innings, six hits and no runs with four strikeouts and just one walk — and I like his chances for a solid start against a subpar Twins offense. Manaea dominated the Twins to start the month — eight strikeouts and one earned run on June 1 — and has put together a really solid June (3.13 ERA, 23-7 K/BB ratio in 23 innings) after being absolutely obliterated in his first six starts (7.03 ERA). I think he’s settling right in, and there’s no reason not to buy the talent overall. Read the rest of this entry »


MASH Report (6/30/16)

Clayton Kershaw is on the DL with lower back pain.

Clayton Kershaw will be placed on the 15-day disabled list with lower back pain, and Dodgers manager Dave Roberts couldn’t say he was optimistic that his ace will return in the minimum time.

Kershaw received an epidural injection for pain relief, but the club did not release an injury diagnosis or explain whether the pain was caused by a disk issue or possible herniation.

There is just not a lot of details on his injury right now. I went and selected Pitcher, Back, and several possible injuries in my DL time tool and came up with the following values.

 

The median number of days lost at 36 with the average being 20 days more. I would count on him being out a month with the likelihood it could be more.

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Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat – June 30th

Great chat as always! Back at it again next week around 2 pm Central!

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Cameron Rupp Has Been Red Hot

Cameron Rupp has been surging for the past month and a half, producing a .298/.353/.575 slash line over that period. Pretty solid numbers in their own right, and he has been one of the most valuable offensive forces in baseball over this stretch (ranked 29th by wOBA). It is even better when you consider he is a catcher with a 7% owned rate in the Yahoo leagues.

Following the conclusion of the 2015 season, during the end of season meetings, Pete Mackanin suggested Rupp may benefit from altering his bat path. During the off season, Cameron with the aid Chris Edelstein, a batting instructor he has known since childhood, went to work on shortening his bat path and focusing on the top of the ball. He came into spring training this season with a newly adapted swing, one in which he describes as having “a minor adjustment.” In early May, Rupp told Joe Harris, a contributor of MLB.com:

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Building DFS Lineups for Small Slates

So far, this weekly column has largely focused on various general aspects of DFS strategy for the first half of the post, and specific projections for the day in the second half. Today, I’d like to switch gears a bit and discuss my process for building lineups in small (2-5 game) slates, using today’s early 3-game slate as an example.

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The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for June 30

Agenda

  1. Roto Riteup Splits
  2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
  3. Daily DFS
  4. SaberSim Observations
  5. Tomorrow’s Targets
  6. Factor Grid

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Field of Streams: Episode 190 – Stuck With Mike Leake

Episode 190 – Stuck With Mike Leake

The latest episode of “Field of Streams” is live!

In this episode, Dylan Higgins and Matthew Dewoskin discuss James Shields earning a win with the White Sox, Madison Bumgarner being his own designated hitter, being particularly skeptical of the elbows of Mets pitchers, some cheap outfield options, and the inconsistency of Taijuan Walker.

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Quality of Pitchers Faced

Over the years, I’ve made several attempts to adjust both hitter and pitcher performance statistics based on the quality of their opposition, but I’ve never settled on a method that I really like. Those failures will not stop me from trying. In this attempt, I’ve opted to use a plus/minus approach similar to those used in modern defensive statistics like Defensive Runs Saved. Here’s how it works in this case. Whenever a batter records a hit, I am giving him credit of 1.0 hits minus the batting average allowed this season by the pitcher he is facing. So if that hit comes against Clayton Kershaw, that’s 1.0 minus 0.185 or 0.815 hits over what that pitcher would be expected to allow in a typical at-bat. If instead that hit comes against Alfredo Simon, that’s 1.0 minus 0.348 or just 0.652 hits. Meanwhile, if the batter fails to get a hit, he receives 0.0 minus the pitcher’s batting average allowed, which would be -0.185 hits against Kershaw and -0.348 hits against Simon.

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2016 AL Starting Pitcher Tiers: July

It’s that time of year again, American League starting pitcher tier update time! I still pay no attention to ERA, as it’s not a metric I use for evaluation and ranking pitchers for rest of season performance. Player movement between tiers will only occur when there’s a change in underlying skill, pitch mix, or velocity. Injured pitchers with non-arm injuries expected back relatively soon will remain in the tier they had been. Pitchers with arm-related injuries with up-in-the-air return dates have been removed. I just can’t speculate on that kind of stuff.

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Roto Riteup: June 30, 2016

The Giants are conceding their right to a designated hitter and letting Madison Bumgarner bat today. Bumgarner is a great hitter by pitching standards, but he’s also only slashing .175/.261/.350 on the season (a 69 wRC+), with a 47 wRC+ over 470 career plate appearances. The Giants will hit a worse player, but that’s entirely OK. More goes into such decisions, like keeping your ace happy and, you know, having some fun.


Fun bad decisions > Boring good decisions.

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