Archive for January, 2017

The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 422 – The Al Melchior Debut!

1/31/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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 Leading Off: Question of the Day (3:40)

Strategy Section: Team-by-Team Breakdowns

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Early ADP Thoughts – Starting Pitcher, Part II

Today’s ADP piece is looking at the SPs beyond the top 50. This is where you can win leagues. Let me emphasize “can” because leagues are rarely won or lost at the draft table alone. After all, there’s a reason we play out the six months of the season and don’t just go off a projection set. Usually a good 40-50% of many rosters turn over every year, at least in mixed leagues in the 10-15 team range.

Even if there are only 6-7 player slots turned over out of a 23-man roster (which is 25-30% turnover), there will still be many players moving in and out those slots. The point is that you shouldn’t get too precious about your draft picks in the mid-to-late rounds because a lot of them aren’t going to be on your roster very long anyway. Pitchers in particular have huge variance year-to-year so take your guys in this part of the draft.

Previous Editions:

STARTING PITCHER (click here for ADP list)

  • Jeff Samardzija (pick 196) might not have bounced back as well as some of us expected, but he shaved over a run off his ERA and further showed himself as one of the few workhorses left in the market.

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It’s Ottoneu Cut Day!

Today’s the day. Your 2017 ottoneu keeper rosters are due prior to midnight tonight. All that advice to put off cutting your extraneous players can be ignored. Shed the bloat and corruption from your roster. See ya $35 Chris Davis. Didn’t find a taker for your $20 David Ortiz? Well, I’m not surprised. Goodbye forever Big Papi.

I’m here to offer some last minute advice as you make your decisions. Let’s talk about trade options and those oh-so-tricky borderline keepers. For more late breaking advice, check out the ottoneu strategy page.

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The 2015-2016 Brls/BBE Leaders

Yesterday, I introduced you to the new Statcast fueled xHR/FB rate equation I developed during my recent xMetric frenzy. It’s simple to use, requiring just a couple of variables, and its components are easily accessible. So now armed with all the data that led to the equation, let’s dive in, explore, and have a little fun.

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Mixing Fantasy & Reality: Lindor, Turner, & Moss

Trea Turner’s and Francisco Lindor’s Unexpected Power

In 2015, Lindor perplexed fantasy owners by hitting 12 HR in just 438 PA. He was never much of a power hitter in the minors and scouting reports put him at below average power. He’s not been the only light-hitting infield prospect with unexpected power.

Trea Turner’s home run power was unanticipated with 13 homers in about half a season last year. Like Lindor, he never hit for much power in the minors and his power grades disappointed. Should owners point to Lindor as an example for limiting power expectations after an unexpected half season?

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Everyone Is Paying Too Much for Jose Peraza

This far out from the start of the season, most of the average draft position data we have available is largely speculative, and understandably so. Still, I find value in analyzing the returns from this uncertain period, as it helps us develop some early trends going into our own draft/auction preparation. Second base is my usual beat here at RotoGraphs, so the other day I found myself examining the NFBC ADP for the position.

There’s other surprises in that data to save for another day, but today I’d like to discuss Jose Peraza’s position as the 12th 2B drafted. Peraza is currently going ahead of Dustin Pedroia, Ben Zobrist, Jonathan Schoop, Devon Travis, Jedd Gyorko, Starlin Castro, Logan Forsythe and Neil Walker. I’m sure we all have our own arguments about which of those eight names should slot in above Peraza, but I’m also fairly confident most of us prefer at least one or two of them to Peraza. Right?

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Fantasy Busts and Opportunities: AL East

The series continues! We’re here to discuss the following question – which current MLB starters might flop in 2017, opening an opportunity for a prospect or non-full time player? During Spring Training, we’ll go into a full dive on team depth charts, fleshing out these opportunities in more detail. This post is meant to be quick and dirty. If you missed the previous editions, you can find the NL East here, AL West here, NL Central here, and AL Central here.

I’ve constrained myself to players I believe may predictably fail. The person who asked the question used the Tigers rotation, Jimmy Rollins, Shin-Soo Choo, and Luke Gregerson as examples. He or she profited from Michael Fulmer, Tim Anderson, Ken Giles, and Nomar Mazara.

Let’s begin.

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A Minor Review of 2016: Cleveland Indians

Welcome to the final installment of the annual series that provides both a review of your favorite teams’ 2016 season, as well as an early look toward 2017. It also serves as a helpful guide for keeper and dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Tyler Naquin (OF): Naquin burst onto the scene in 2016, taking advantage of injuries and never looking back. He hit for more power than expected — 14 homers and a .218 ISO in 321 at-bats — during his MLB debut so it will be interesting to see if it was a blip on the radar or a sign of things to come (10 home runs was previously a career high). His strikeout rate, too, was a surprise. After sitting around 20-23%, it spiked to just under 31%. It took a BABIP of .411 to compensate for the contact issues so a batting average near .300 will likely not continue unless he makes some adjustments. He appears pencilled in at center field for Cleveland in 2017.

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Introducing the New Statcast Charged Batter xHR/FB Rate

Nearly three years ago, I developed and published the original batter xHR/FB rate equation. While I used it during the season to analyze players, it was unfortunately behind the FG+ pay wall and shrouded in mystery. Then almost exactly two years ago, I unmasked the equation and shared it with the entire world. The equation used three components compiled by Jeff Zimmerman and did a fairly solid job of estimating what a hitter’s HR/FB rate should have been (adjusted R-squared of 0.649). Sadly, the data fueling the equation is no longer available, so naturally I decided to create a new equation. A Statcast charged one.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 421 – Hell’s Angels

1/29/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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 Leading Off: Question of the Day (3:40)

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

Strategy Section: Team-by-Team Breakdowns

  • Los Angeles Angels
    • Who earns the most SVs on this team? (25:40)
    • Betting on Matt Shoemaker (65th SP) or Garrett Richards (69th)? (28:30)
    • Does Ben Revere bounce back? (34:33)
    • Favorite Target: Revere for both
    • Stayaway: the entire team besides Trout?
    • Off-the-Radar: Tyler Skaggs (42:44)
    • Impact Prospects? (lol)

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