Archive for September, 2018

Bullpen Report: September 19, 2018

It was Zach Britton, and not Dellin Betances, who got the save for the Yankees in their 3-2 win over the Red Sox in Tuesday night’s series opener. I have made Britton and Betances co-closers in the grid below, with both receiving the “Hot Seat” label. However, it’s not Britton’s adventure of an inning or Betances’ recent struggles that have put them on the hot seat, but rather that Aroldis Chapman could return as soon as Wednesday. It appears that Chapman’s worst-case scenario is a Thursday return, in the event that Aaron Boone wants to give the lefty an additional day of rest following Monday’s sim game.
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The Daily Grind: Some Kind of Walker Texas Ferris Buehler Pun

You’re running out of time to hit your games played and innings pitched caps in traditional fantasy leagues. Luckily, you have a free resource available in the form of Streaming Wars.

AGENDA

  1. TDG Invitational
  2. Weather Reports
  3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
  4. SaberSim Says…
  5. Déjà Vu Again

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Waiver Wire SP Options: 5 Starters To Win This Week

It’s been a fun season covering discount starting pitcher options here at Rotographs, and with under two weeks remaining, I’m shifting this piece to focus on options through the rest of the week to consider to stream to pull ahead through the weekend.

I’ll be keeping them under 30% owned per usual, with all numbers pulled from Fantasy Pros’ consolidated ownage metrics.

Steven Matz vs. Philadelphia Phillies + Washington Nationals – Matz has two starts left this week, playing in just an hour against Phils and on Sunday against the Nationals and his low ownage rate shocks me. He’s sporting a 2.67 ERA with a 3.03 SIERA to back it across his last five starts, averaging seven strikeouts and over six frames per start. He’s increased his slider usage from 8% on the season to 15% in that time frame, returning an impressive 2.8 pVal, which has also amplified the effect of his heater. Batters are more aware of Matz’s strong slide piece that they can’t sit on heaters, creating tougher at-bats, and more efficient starts for Matz. Meanwhile, the Phillies and Nationals are far from strong offenses – lineups Matz has produced against recently – and should make for productive outings for Matz owners.

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Daily Starters – Wednesday, September 19

Wednesday’s slate of starting pitchers is not fully set, as there are still no fewer than five teams listing TBD as their starter as of this writing. I have filled in some of the blanks, projecting that Stephen Gonsalves will be the Twins’ primary pitcher and Sam Gaviglio will start for the Blue Jays. That increases the number of widely-available projected “starters” to eight, using a 25 percent ownership rate on Fantrax as a cutoff point.

While most owners are forsaking these hurlers, a few are reasonable streaming options, particularly in deeper formats.
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Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 9/18/2018

Here’s today’s chat transcript. It was a good one.

4:01
Brad Johnson: Hey folks, we’ll get started in a moment or two.

4:03
Jake Junis Priest: Aroldis: is he a quick activate or wait and see? He can kill a ratio but might get saves off the bat…

4:03
Brad Johnson: I think he’ll quickly return to the 9th inning, and there isn’t much risk to your ratios

4:04
Brad Johnson: Obviously there is SOME risk, but he’s more likely to help than hurt

4:04
High Strikes Low Balls: Have to start either Josh James or Touki Toussaint this week. Who would you risk going with?

4:05
Brad Johnson: This is a tough one. They’re the same asset class – precocious, unestablished talents. They’ve both avoided hard contact in tiny tiny samples

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Daily Starters – Tuesday, September 18th

It’s a slate of studs with several aces going, but there are still a host of useful starters to run out there in your playoff or roto chase to the top.

(I’ll be citing the FantasyPros roster rates)

Joey Lucchesi – SD v. SF (26%)

Lucchesi is a slam dunk spot start thanks to the easiest matchup a lefty can get in the second half. The Giants are 30th in wOBA against lefties since the break at .262. Meanwhile, it’s not just the matchup that is appealing here as Lucchesi’s had a useful 4.13 ERA and 54 strikeouts in 48 innings.

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The Daily Grind: Pitcher Blob

Chris Stratton is my favorite pitching target for tomorrow in Streaming Wars.

AGENDA

  1. TDG Invitational
  2. Weather Reports
  3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
  4. SaberSim Says…
  5. Vogelbomb

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Roto Riteup: September 18, 2018

The Roto Riteup is a big fan of cycling:

Big apologies for taking the last few days off. Been dealing with some health issues, but am now off the DL and looking forward to only pinch running and playing defense.

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St. Louis Cardinals Top 10 Prospects Updated

The Cardinals don’t have the deepest system in the word but there are some interesting prospects littered throughout the system. And the upper half of the Top 10 has some helium potential.

Click here for the pre-season Top 10

1. Alex Reyes | RHP | DL —> When healthy, Reyes has the ability to be one of the most dominating pitchers in baseball. He has three better-than-average offerings when his command is on but the control also lets him down — and hasn’t had much of a chance to get better with all the layoff time. Reyes can hit triple-digits with the heater and his curveball is a swing-and-miss offerings. The members of the Cardinals front office (and fans) will hold their collective breathes until Reyes returns healthy to the mound, hopefully for Opening Day 2019.

2. Nolan Gorman | 3B | A —> Gorman has a chance to be a beast. However, he also has a chance to de-evolve into Joey Gallo — a player who swings for the fences every single time and doesn’t have an ounce of strategy at the plate beyond the grip-and-rip. Gorman, 18, had a nice approach in rookie ball but it started to fall away in A-ball when he started to chase the homers more often. He’ll likely return to A-ball in 2019 and I’d like to see him put the homer swing in his back pocket for a while and work on pitch recognition, handling curveballs and just polishing the hit tool. Defensively, he has a chance to be average but he needs some work to get there.

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Bullpen Report: September 17, 2018

Adam Conley did not have a save opportunity on Sunday against the Phillies, but nonetheless, I have moved him to the head of the Marlins’ closer committee in the grid. Don Mattingly, like many managers, will sometimes use his closer with a four-run lead in the ninth inning, and that’s what he did on Sunday. With a 6-2 lead, Conley retired the first two batters, but he allowed a hard-hit Aaron Altherr double followed by Roman Quinn’s RBI single. The lefty could have limited the damage to the lone run if Starlin Castro had not been eaten up by a Cesar Hernandez grounder, but the error allowed the Phillies to cut the lead to 6-4. Then the rally ended when Conley struck out Rhys Hoskins.
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