2B ADP: Early Results

Mock Draft Central is currently running mock drafts and I will look at how second basemen are being taken in those drafts. Besides the data Mock Draft Central provides, I have added in the approximate round the player would have been taken in a 12-team draft and the difference between the earliest and latest the player was drafted. First, here is a list of the second basemen with their draft stats:

Player Team ADP App. Round Earliest Latest Difference Draft %
Robinson Cano NYY 10 1 1 17 16 100.0%
Dustin Pedroia BOS 19 2 8 28 20 100.0%
Ian Kinsler TEX 25 2 13 35 22 100.0%
Dan Uggla ATL 55 5 24 98 74 100.0%
Brandon Phillips CIN 63 5 38 90 52 100.0%
Chase Utley PHI 77 6 43 115 72 100.0%
Rickie Weeks MIL 79 7 46 114 68 100.0%
Ben Zobrist TB 83 7 40 109 69 100.0%
Howie Kendrick ANA 104 9 64 130 66 100.0%
Dustin Ackley SEA 135 11 82 193 111 100.0%
Neil Walker PIT 143 12 103 198 95 100.0%
Danny Espinosa WAS 149 12 95 212 117 100.0%
Jemile Weeks OAK 154 13 98 217 119 100.0%
Jason Kipnis CLE 163 14 94 ND 99.8%
Aaron Hill ARI 232 19 169 ND 90.3%
Kelly Johnson TOR 237 20 166 ND 77.3%
Gordon Beckham CHW 237 20 207 ND 32.0%
Brian Roberts BAL 242 20 215 ND 59.5%
Jose Altuve HOU 243 20 235 ND 8.4%
Omar Infante MIA 257 21 249 ND 18.4%
Alexi Casilla MIN 264 22 255 ND 5.0%
Maicer Izturis ANA 301 25 291 ND 0.4%
Johnny Giavotella KC 317 26 307 ND 3.7%
Tyler Greene STL 447 37 432 ND 1.1%
Joe Inglett HOU 462 39 447 ND 0.4%

Notes

– Pedroia and Kinsler generally should be available for an owner that picks early in the first round when the draft snakes back to them. This pick is a great chance to fill a MI position. I think these 2 and Cano are close in talent, but there is a decent drop off to the next 2B. If an owner doesn’t get one of these 3, wait a few rounds to begin looking at 2B again.

– I am not a fan of Uggla being taken ahead of Phillips. I hate to go with a one dimensional player like Uggle (HRs, no AVG or SB) this early in the draft. Uggla has one of the highest differences between his earliest and last draft positions. Buyers are definitely torn over his value.

– I have no idea how Utley is going this high, especially with Weeks, Zobrist and Kendrick still being on the board. He has had multiple injuries over multiple seasons dragging down his production. Draft the younger players.

– The players I would try to target for 2B is the remainder of who is left from Weeks, Zobrist and Kendrick. See which one(s) drops the most and then pick them up around round 10. These 3 are being picked at the end of a tier of 2B talent. I will group all these 2B together and aim to draft one when only one or two are still available.

– Kipnis and Ackley are just too far apart IMO. A case can be made that Kipnis will have the better season. Here are the pair’s projected stats for 2012 (average of Bill James, Fans and RotoChamp):

Kipnis: 18 HRs, 17 SBs, 0.272 AVG
Ackley: 12 HRs, 14 SBs, 0.271 AVG

Kipnis is being taken 30 spots later on average in the draft. I think in this situation, Kipnis is getting a little short changed and Ackley’s stock is a bit bloated.

– Two final 2B that peak my interest are Aaron Hill and Kelly Johnson. Both have the potential to be top 10 or even top 5 2B at the end of the season. If a team is drafting and needs to a fill MI spot, these two look like great pickups around the 20th round.



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Jeff writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first season in Tout Wars, he won the H2H league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.



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Eminor3rd
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Eminor3rd

Super useful post. Thanks

Eminor3rd
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Eminor3rd

In fact, could we get a post like this for all positions? Within the next 3 weeks? Would be awesome.

Max
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Max

Seconded.

winfield wants noise
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In some leagues, Michael Cuddyer qualifies at 2B. Where does he slot in? Ahead of Howie Kendrick?

JimNYC
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JimNYC

I’m sorry, but I can’t take advice from somebody who thinks that the idiom is “peak my interest.” My interest is piqued by the fact that Fangraphs evidently doesn’t employ copy editors and/or people familiar with the English language.

Honestly, how can you expect anybody to take anyting you say seriously when you make such basic mistakes?

xrayxtals
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xrayxtals

boooooooo

JimNYC
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JimNYC

Granted, I totally destroyed my entire argument by spelling “anything” without an “h.”

jimbo
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jimbo

i can haz free advice and stuffs hear ’bout game me likey.

wpDiscuz