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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 566 –Buy High Hitters w/Jake Ciely

6/20/18

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

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Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles

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Bullpen Report: June 20, 2018

Among yesterday’s developments, I was pretty certain nothing was going to top the Cubs losing their closer due to an injury sustained while taking his pants off. I was wrong.

After blowing a save against the Marlins on Monday night, Hunter Strickland then lost a fight with a door. The Giants’ closer punched said door and broke his right hand. He underwent surgery on his right pinky finger on Tuesday and is expected to be out for six-to-eight weeks. Bruce Bochy wasted little time in anointing Sam Dyson as his new primary closer, and promptly used him to nail down a save against the Marlins on Tuesday night. With Tony Watson apparently off after pitching on consecutive days, Will Smith pitched the eighth inning and stayed in to begin the ninth with lefties J.B. Shuck and Derek Dietrich due up, but after walking pinch hitter Yadiel Rivera and striking out Dietrich, he gave way to Dyson. The sinkerballer, who happens to have a 64.8 percent ground ball rate, got Brian Anderson to hit into a game-ending double play.
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Pablo Sandoval & Kevan Smith: Deep League Wire

Today’s deep league wire features a blast from the past and a hitter at a position you are almost surely in need of upgrading.

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The Daily Grind: The Crawling Chaos

That song about rolling in the deep is a Cthulhuian chant and specifically invokes Nyarlathotep aka The Crawling Chaos.

AGENDA

  1. TDG Invitational
  2. Weather Reports
  3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
  4. SaberSim Says…
  5. Stripling Quik-Analysis

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Roto Riteup: June 20, 2018

I don’t want to brag, but I hit a home run this week:

 

On the Agenda:
1. Rumors!
2. Various News and Notes
3. Streaming Pitchers

 

Rumors!
According to Jon Morosi, there is building trade interest in Blue Jays reliever Ryan Tepera. The 30-year-old reliever has been the bright spot in the Toronto bullpen since losing closer Roberto Osuna to legal troubles. He would be a great addition to most teams and is under team control for a few more seasons. However, as a fantasy asset, he would likely lose value if traded.

Jon Morosi also reported that the Diamondbacks have made contact with the Baltimore Orioles in regards to a trade for Manny Machado. The discussions are in the beginning stages and there are expected to be a lot of interested teams in Machado, but he would be an interesting fit in Arizona and a huge trade deadline prize in NL Only leagues.

 

Various News and Notes
Hunter Strickland was placed on the 10-Day DL after losing a fight with a wall that resulted in him breaking his pitching hand. He will miss 6-8 weeks with the injury. In his absence, Sam Dyson will be the primary closer with Mark Melancon sitting on a huge pile of wasted money waiting in the wings. There was no word on if the wall was injured in the altercation.

J.P. Crawford has been placed on the 10-Day DL with a fractured hand. The injury occured after he was hit on the hand with a pitch Tuesday night versus the Cardinals. He will likely miss 4-to-6 weeks. This will likely open up more playing time for Scott Kingery.

AJ Ramos will miss the rest of the season with a torn labrum that will require surgery. Ramos has been on the DL since late May, but after further examination, the injury is more serious than previously thought.

Rougned Odor was a late scratch for Tuesday’s game after it was discovered that he and Yohander Mendez violated team rules Monday night. Apparently, both players were out late drinking and were involved in “an incident.” Mendez was sent down prior to the game as a result. It will be interesting if more details became available. This apparently was not the “violation”:

 

Streaming Pitchers Options
A pitcher for today: None
Hail Mary Option: Frankie Montas @ SD is an interesting gamble.

A pitcher for tomorrow: Clayton Richard @SF
Since May 8th, Richard has gone at least six innings in each start and has only allowed more than three runs once.


Gary Sanchez’s Season Is Not As Bad As It Looks

It’s hard to put a good spin on Gary Sanchez rolling into late June as the seventh-ranked catcher in Roto value (per ESPN’s Player Rater), but while his season has been disappointing, it has its bright side. For one thing, at least he is having a better fantasy season than Willson Contreras. For another, he leads all catchers in runs (35) and is second in home runs (13) and RBI (39).

It’s clearly Sanchez’s .194 batting average that is holding him back, and now that he is mired in a 6 for 62 slump, it’s heading in the wrong direction. He is a bit off last season’s home run pace and his strikeout rate has risen slightly from 22.9 percent in 2017 to 24.6 percent so far in 2018, but his real problem is what he is doing on balls in play.
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Matt Boyd’s Surprising Success

Matt Boyd was terrible last year. In fact, let’s just be really honest and acknowledge that he was pretty bad through the first 290 innings of his career with a 5.47 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, and 11% K-BB rate. His best effort through three seasons was a 4.53 ERA and 1.30 WHIP back in 2016. While never a Top 100 guy, Boyd was a prospect of some acclaim and expectations had him becoming a capable backend starter.

He’s starting to meet those expectations with a 3.23 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 75 innings so far this season. His success has perplexed analysts and fantasy players alike as no one can seem to make sense of how he’s throwing the best baseball of his career despite virtually no change to his base skills. I decided to dive in and see what’s going on.

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Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 6/19/2018

We chatted. Here is the transcript which ends with some ROY picks. Enjoy.

4:01
Vegan Man!: What are you doing with Jon Gray and Castillo in 12 team leagues? Benching or dropping? Thanks!

4:01
Brad Johnson: Playing matchups. Definitely not dropping. Gray is actually top 10 SP by FIP WAR

4:01
Brad Johnson: Oh, hello everyone

4:02
Brad Johnson: Greetings and such

4:02
Brad Johnson: Onward

4:02
Julian H.: Been offered Verlander for Ohtani in a keep forever h2h pts league. I’ve got a top contending team. I love Ohtani and am anguishing over this. Talk to me.

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Mining For Pitchers: Suarez, Littell, & Kennedy

Last week I re-introduced my hitter prospect finder and today, the pitchers take center stage. The process uses K%-BB%, age, and level as inputs to find potential off-the-radar prospects.

While the hitter finder finds all the top hitters from scouting sources, the pitcher is not as robust. It just looks at results which sometimes can be off with known fastball velocities and pitch quality. Even though it doesn’t replicate the top prospects, I find it’s great at finding lesser-known targets.

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Justin Mason Baseball Chat – June 19th, 2018

Here is today’s transcript from the chat. Lots of Nimmo questions.

9:27
Justin Mason: Hey everyone! Sorry about starting late. It is going to be a shorter chat today (30-40 minutes) as I am fighting a bad cold. I am going to try and skip around to answer a variety of questions today, so I am not answer multiple questions about the same players. Please give me format and size of leagues for context. Just a reminder that I will answer as many questions as I can, but please don’t repeat questions. If I can’t get to your questions then hit me up on facebook at https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100008744507752 or on twitter @justinmasonfwfb.

9:28
Mike: Soroka, Heaney, Bundy, Flaherty, Castillo, Fulmer ROS

9:29
Justin Mason: I lean Heaney, but there is risk that they limit his innings. I don’t know if they can with their lack of depth in the rotation though.

9:30
Jammer: Any hope for Murphy this season? Is snell for him too much given he looks completely hobbled or gamble on the upside ?

9:30
Justin Mason: I think he is a risky gamble. There is upside, but I really prefer Snell going forward.

9:30
Kyle: Rendon, Devers and Andujar who’s next 3 years are the brightest?

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