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    The most roto-relevant news of the previous day, recapped in a concise format for your morning coffee.
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    Detailed daily updates and charts on every bullpen in the Major Leagues to help you manage your saves and holds.
  • Prospect Coverage
    Our prospect team mines the minors for top prospects and useful pieces alike.
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    Award-winning in-depth injury report with analysis from Jeff Zimmerman.
  • The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast
    Eno Sarris, Paul Sporer, and Jason Collette lead the RotoGraphs staff in a regular fantasy podcast.
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    The RotoGraphs team discusses daily fantasy strategy and then makes picks for the day.
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    Strategy for the year-round FanGraphs Fantasy game.
  • Top 50 Fantasy Prospects
    Marc Hulet adjusts (and updates) his prospect list for fantasy purposes.
  • Field of Streams
    A contest to see who can make the better picks: streaming pitcher and hitter choices for every day of the season in a podcast hosted by Dylan Higgins and Matthew Dewoskin.
C  -  1B  -  2B  -  SS  -  3B  -  OF  -  SP  -  RP

Projecting the Impossible: Pitcher Wins

In the latest episode of the Launch Angle Podcast, Rob Silver asked me how many Wins did I expect Chris Archer to accumulate this season. Basically, I came back with my normal response, I don’t chase Wins and don’t care. He pushed a little harder and wondered the actual difference. I just stammered out a horrible response because I didn’t know. I’m not one to not know so found out with the answer being a win or two.

For years, I’ve used the potential for more Wins as a tie breaker between pitchers with similar baseline stats (strikeouts, walks, and groundball rate). I focused on talent first. Usually, I found pitchers on projected better teams being drafted way ahead of those with similar skills on worse teams. I just assumed the better skills will lead the pitcher to as many Wins as the worse pitcher on a better team. There is no need for me to make that assumption anymore.

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Lutheran Drafts: Which Draft Position Do You Want, And How Do You Get It?

Most Fantasy drafts embody a sort of Calvinist view of the world: your draft position is a matter of predestination, where you wind up is arbitrarily determined, and there’s nothing you can do to alter the outcome. But drafts in the National Fantasy Baseball League are more Lutheran: there are things you can do to affect your position. To determine draft order in snake drafts, the NFBC uses what it calls the Kentucky Derby System, because it resembles the way post positions get chosen for the Derby. NFBC owners can indicate their draft position preferences beforehand by ranking them. If the owner doesn’t bother, the default ranking for that team is what you’d expect: 1 through Whatever. The NFBC computer then randomly picks the order in which each owner’s preferences are consulted. The first owner gets her first choice, the second owner gets his first choice unless it’s already gone, in which case the computer moves on to the next owner and doesn’t come back to Owner Number Two until everyone else’s first preferences have been consulted. And so it proceeds with second preferences, third preferences, and so on. Thus, it’s theoretically possible that the last owner in the KDS sequence gets the first draft choice.

The question is, does she want it? And that’s what we decided to find out: are there any differences at all, this year, among draft positions? If so, how big are the differences and which positions are best? And how can you go about getting those positions? Read the rest of this entry »


Surprise! You Believed Their 2017 BABIPs, But Shouldn’t Have

Today marks the end of xBABIP week, after I shared and discussed 11 hitters potentially due for a BABIP surge and 10 hitters at risk of dramatic decline over the last two days. Today I’ll check in on hitters that at first glance, wouldn’t appear to be far off from their xBABIP marks, while the surgers and decliners list were quite a bit more obvious. If you posted a .230 BABIP in 2017, you’re probably going to find yourself on a potential surger list, while a .380 BABIP is likely going to get you onto the decliner list.

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No Rankings, No Mocks: Before Photo

I’m trying something new this winter. For years, I’ve lamented the near worthlessness of rankings. Here’s me in 2014 saying some things about how much I hate rankings. Here I am again in 2016. Here’s me with a graph (that’s not me!). Apparently, this post is an even-year tradition. However, I’m doing things a little differently this time. That’s what we’re here to talk about today.

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Hot Stove Update – February 21st

It has been quite a while since we did one of these because the Hot Stove has been so ice cold. We’re finally starting to see big moves as the stove thaws and I expect a steady stream of moves for the duration of the offseason until the bulk of available players find homes.

Yu Darvish to CHC

Darvish stays in the NL and heads to Chicago to join the Cubs. I had him ranked 13th in my most recent SP ranking update back in late-January and I can’t imagine moving him much, if at all, on my next update. He remains well supported by a deep bullpen and strong offense. Don’t get too hung up on the World Series starts. A week before that he was dismantling his new team (6.3 IP/1 ER/7 K in NLCS) and the Diamondbacks (5 IP/1 ER/7 K in NLDS). Your Mike Montgomery shares just went the way of Bitconnect for now, but in leagues deep enough to take him in the first place, he’ll still hold some value as a super reliever (just 7 appearances of an inning or less last year).

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2018 Ottoneu FGPts Rankings- OF

Last week we kicked off our ottoneu FanGraphs points player rankings with C/1B/3B and 2B/SS, and today I’m back with the OF group. This year the rankings will include values from myself, Trey Baughn, and the default values from the FanGraphs Auction Calculator using the ottoneu FanGraphs points preset (Steamer projections). We are presenting our individual dollar values, plus the weighted average of all three rankings (2:2:1 weighting with the Auction Calc weighted less). In addition, the tables below include ottoneu eligibility (5 games started/10 games played in the prior year). Players are ranked only at their most valuable position, and the hierarchy we are using is C/SS/2B/3B/OF/1B (with 3B and OF being a coin toss in terms of replacement level, we chose to include 3B/OF eligibles at 3B).

Prior Rankings: C/1B/3B, 2B/SS

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10 Hitter BABIP Decliners For 2018

Yesterday, I used my xBABIP equation to identify and discuss 11 hitters who might be in for a BABIP surge this season. Today, I’ll move on to the other side of the ledger — those hitters whose xBABIP marks were significantly below their actual BABIP marks, suggesting serious downside this year.

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Three Pitchers Who Won’t @#$%ing Adjust

Sometimes, I grow weary of writing introductions. The title is pretty self explanatory. If you need more time to mentally prepare yourself for analysis, here’s a short thread about my knuckleball and Vicente Padilla‘s slickball. Ok, let’s go.

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Two-Pitch Starters Needing a Third Pitch

Every year Jason Collette puts together a list of pitchers who are adding a new pitch. Last year, over 50 different pitchers said they were adding/changing at least one of their pitches. Once the season was over, the pitchers who made the biggest gains from adding a new pitch weren’t on the list. As much as I personally enjoy helping with the list during the spring, it doesn’t help fantasy owners. Instead of focusing on the list, I’m going to work propose a different method for finding pitchers to target.

Once every season ends, I go examine where the fantasy industry missed on players. Two top-15 pitchers who made the list were Robbie Ray and Luis Severino. In both cases, they began to effectively utilize a third pitch. For Severino, it was a changeup which generated a 13% SwStr% and his K/9 jumped from 8.4 to 10.7 and his ERA dropped from 5.83 to 2.98.

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11 Hitter BABIP Surgers For 2018

A year ago, I introduced the latest and greatest version of my hitter xBABIP equation, this time incorporating shift data. Even though it was leaps ahead of any previous iterations and attempts at an xBABIP equation, it still only resulted in an adjusted R-squared of 0.5377. There’s still a whole lot more work to be done here! I would have liked to spend some time doing more research in the hopes of unveiling a further improved equation before the season begins, but alas, I haven’t had the time.

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