• Thinking About Future Alex Bregman
    by Randy Holt - 10/18 -  7
    Alex Bregman came into the 2017 with rather large expectations, to the point where I opined that he might end up in the top five third basemen in Major League Baseball by year's end in my bold predictions at the beginning of the year.
  • Roto Riteup
    The most roto-relevant news of the previous day, recapped in a concise format for your morning coffee.
  • Bullpen Report
    Detailed daily updates and charts on every bullpen in the Major Leagues to help you manage your saves and holds.
  • Prospect Coverage
    Our prospect team mines the minors for top prospects and useful pieces alike.
  • MASH Report
    Award-winning in-depth injury report with analysis from Jeff Zimmerman.
  • The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast
    Eno Sarris, Paul Sporer, and Jason Collette lead the RotoGraphs staff in a regular fantasy podcast.
  • Daily Fantasy Strategy
    The RotoGraphs team discusses daily fantasy strategy and then makes picks for the day.
  • Ottoneu Strategy
    Strategy for the year-round FanGraphs Fantasy game.
  • Top 50 Fantasy Prospects
    Marc Hulet adjusts (and updates) his prospect list for fantasy purposes.
  • Field of Streams
    A contest to see who can make the better picks: streaming pitcher and hitter choices for every day of the season in a podcast hosted by Dylan Higgins and Matthew Dewoskin.
C  -  1B  -  2B  -  SS  -  3B  -  OF  -  SP  -  RP

Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – October 19th, 2017

Filling in for Eno today! We’ll start just after 11 CT!

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Scooter Gennett, Giancarlo Stanton, and RBI Luck

This being FanGraphs, I don’t spend a ton of time thinking about RBI and runs. Both of those stats are contextual in nature and say less about a player’s quality of performance than many of this site’s context-neutral metrics, such as wOBA and WAR. But I still play in a number of roto leagues where RBI and runs are categories, and just because they mean less in real life doesn’t mean I can’t put some analytical thought into how players accumulated them.

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Reviewing The 2017 Starting Pitcher Strikeout Rate Downsiders

Yesterday, I reviewed my 2017 starting pitcher strikeout rate upsider list, which produced embarrassing results. Let’s hope the downsider results look much improved. Once again, this list was compiled by using my pitcher xK% equation to identify starters whose 2016 xK% marks were significantly above their actual K% marks.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 503 – Jason’s Lessons


The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 18, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER18!

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  • AL LCS Review
  • NL LCS Review

Strategy Section

  • Jason’s Lessons from ‘17


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Turning Scoutable Traits Into Projections

Last week I laid out my plans for combining prospect grades and “scoutable” traits to help project major league performance. Finally, I’m able to output projections with encouraging results. Just by using traits people can scout with their eyes, I created a set of projections which competes with Steamer projections. Additionally, it helps point to the traits people should look for in prospects.

Previously, I tried to use just the five traits prospects get graded on (Hit, Power, Speed, Field, and Arm) to come up with a player’s value. I found the Speed and Power grades useful but came to the following conclusion on the Hit grade:

Basically, the Hit tool is a useless component to determine hitter value as it’s currently being distributed.

The more I thought about the Hit tool, the more I concluded that it’s trying to evaluate too much information (examples of different Hit tool definitions).

For these projections, I matched up the traits hitters display with common stats. To start with, here are the core traits I decided to utilize:
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Thinking About Future Alex Bregman

Alex Bregman came into the 2017 with rather large expectations, to the point where I opined that he might end up in the top five third basemen in Major League Baseball by year’s end in my bold predictions at the beginning of the year. As it turns out, that wasn’t too far-fetched an idea, as Bregman rode a strong second half toward finishing 7th at the position in WAR (3.8) and 7th in Off rating (17.7). With that in mind, it’s an exciting prospect to discuss what exactly the Houston Astros, as well as prospective fantasy owners, could expect from him moving forward.

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Ottoneu Power Rankings: Final 2017

The 2017 ottoneu season has come and gone, so it’s time to take a look at the final power rankings of the season. Was overall scoring down compared to 2016? Where did your team/league end up in the rankings? Let’s find out!

You can find prior power rankings here: August,  JulyJuneMay April2016 Final

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Reviewing The 2017 Starting Pitcher Strikeout Rate Upsiders

At the beginning of January, I used my xK% equation to identify six starting pitchers with significant strikeout rate upside in 2017. Let’s see how these pitchers actually performed.

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Reviewing 2017 Pod’s Picks & Pans — Starting Pitcher

Alas, we reach the final position to dive into for this year’s recap of Pod’s Picks & Pans. We finish with the starting pitchers, a group that always garners varying opinions. Let’s see how the players I was most bullish and bearish on versus the RotoGraphs consensus actually performed.

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A Minor Review of 2017: Houston Astros

The Astros have a talented, young team but the minor league system is starting to thin out now. With that said, there are still a few prospects with high ceilings, such as outfielder Kyle Tucker and pitcher Forrest Whitley.

The Graduate: Francis Martes, RHP: The Astros have a relatively young team but the club didn’t rely heavily on rookies in 2017. Derek Fisher led the first-year hitters with 166 plate appearances while Martes led the freshman pitchers with 54.1 innings — narrowly edging a more effective James Hoyt. Why focus on the former and not the latter? Hoyt has solid potential as a one-inning reliever but Martes has additional value as a guy that can go multiple innings out of the ‘pen or could eventually move back into the starting rotation. Just 21, he already flashes three potentially-plus offerings but it’s his lack of control and command that holds him back. Martes sits in the mid-90s with his heat but until he trims his walk rate (5.13 BB/9) he’ll be pitching in triple-A or mopping up games in the Majors.

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