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    The most roto-relevant news of the previous day, recapped in a concise format for your morning coffee.
  • Bullpen Report
    Detailed daily updates and charts on every bullpen in the Major Leagues to help you manage your saves and holds.
  • Prospect Coverage
    Our prospect team mines the minors for top prospects and useful pieces alike.
  • MASH Report
    Award-winning in-depth injury report with analysis from Jeff Zimmerman.
  • The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast
    Eno Sarris, Paul Sporer, and Jason Collette lead the RotoGraphs staff in a regular fantasy podcast.
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    The RotoGraphs team discusses daily fantasy strategy and then makes picks for the day.
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    Strategy for the year-round FanGraphs Fantasy game.
  • Top 50 Fantasy Prospects
    Marc Hulet adjusts (and updates) his prospect list for fantasy purposes.
  • Field of Streams
    A contest to see who can make the better picks: streaming pitcher and hitter choices for every day of the season in a podcast hosted by Dylan Higgins and Matthew Dewoskin.
C  -  1B  -  2B  -  SS  -  3B  -  OF  -  SP  -  RP

Pitcher Spotlight: Don’t Overlook Collin McHugh

I didn’t care for Collin McHugh for the first half of 2017You probably didn’t care for Collin McHugh. Why would we? He was returning mid-season from an impingement in his throwing elbow and tendinitis in his shoulder after he held a 4.34 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over 184.2 frames the previous year. It was an investment that just wasn’t worth your time…or so we thought. Instead of mediocrity, McHugh was quietly productive in his 12 starts – 3.55 ERA (3.82 FIP), 22.9% K rate, and a 1.29 WHIP across 63.1 innings. Not studly or game-changing, but nor the disaster we forecasted. This may be chalked up to being a fluke as his numbers aren’t so far off from his large 2016 workload, but I think there was something here that you should be aware of. Read the rest of this entry »


Rule Change Season Pt 2 – Real Live Examples

Yesterday, I mused about rule changes in dynasty leagues. My point was pretty simple – league health is the number one priority. A healthy league is one with many contenders and few rebuilding owners. Unfortunately, rule proposals rarely focus on health. Instead, there is a tendency to “fix” non-problems, often to the benefit of the top performing owners.

In that linked column, I referenced a few rule changes we’re considering in my 20-team dynasty league. Let’s look at those in more depth here while considering unintended consequences.

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Reviewing Pod vs Steamer Projections — Stolen Base Upside

Let’s continue our recaps of my Pod vs Steamer projections series, this time with stolen bases. As a reminder, I compared my 2017 Pod Projection stolen base forecast to the Steamer projected, extrapolated over the same number of plate appearances I had projected. This group is composed of those whose Pod Projected stolen base total most exceeded the Steamer projection. Let’s see how they did.

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When Plate Discipline Sticks

A few days ago, Jake Leech asked me if Zack Cozart’s 2017 improved plate discipline would stick into 2018.

Cozart saw quite a bit of improvement with his K%-BB% dropping by 6% points.

Note: I like using K%-B% to get an overall value for a hitters plate discipline. Earlier this year, I investigated what early season stats point to a true breakout. K%-BB%, along with launch angle (FB%), were the two key factors to focus on.

Zach Cozart’s Plate Disciple
Season BB% K% K%-BB%
2016 7.3% 16.5% 9.2%
2017 12.2% 15.4% 3.2%
2018 (Steamer) 8.8% 15.6% 6.8%

The Steamer projection has his K%-BB% regressing closer to his 2016 values than the ones from 2017. This is how projections work with previous season stats having some weight along with some regression.

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A Minor Review of 2017: Kansas City Royals

The Royals system lacks can’t-miss, high-impact talent but it has some depth. I’m a big fan of catcher M.J. Melendez.

The Graduate: Scott Alexander, LHP: This southpaw (who’s equally successful against both right- and left-handed hitters) is one of the most underrated relievers in the game — especially during this period of juiced balls. His eye-popping ground-ball rate of 78% led the Majors and he struck out a quite a few more batters (21%) than the typical sinker ball pitcher. He was also an anomaly because threw his 94 mph heater a whopping 94% of the time with his slider a very distant 4.5%. His success is somewhat impress considering big league hitters always know what’s coming.

Read the rest of this entry »


Rule Change Season

From now until the end of the calendar year, overeager fantasy baseball enthusiasts will be discussing potential rule changes for the 2018 season and beyond. We’ve just begun the process of voting on a couple subjects in my 20-team dynasty. We keep 560 of 900 rostered players (including amateur teenagers). It’s a deep format. We have a bit of problem with owners getting stuck in rebuild mode.

Up for debate at this time are two issues. I suggested moving the trade deadline back from August 10. Another owner wants to add a fifth outfielder slot. We also always talk about increasing the quantity of keepers too. No matter what’s on the table, it’s important to be wary of how new rules will affect competitive balance.

When designing a league or tinkering with an existing one, I seek to accomplish the following:


Positional Overview: Catcher

Over the next few weeks, I’m going to review every position and take stock of where we’re at heading into the offseason. We will tackle the primary skills, look at some playing time jumpers, check in on some prospects, peek back at 2017’s ADP, and get an early look at the 2018 pool. There is definitely going to be similarities across all the positions with these overviews, but each will have its own idiosyncrasies tailored to the depth and expectations. Let’s start with fantasy baseball’s thinnest position and dive in on catchers!

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Reviewing 2017 Pod vs Steamer Projections — Home Run Downside

Before taking a short vacation, I reviewed the first preseason Pod vs Steamer Projections series posts, focused on home run upside. That article discussed the hitters whose home run Pod Projection was significantly greater than his Steamer projection. Today, I’ll recap the players I identified as possessing significant home run downside compared with Steamer. With the record setting home run total, this shall be interesting.

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Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – November 17th, 2017

Thanks for coming out!

2:33

Paul Sporer: Yo yo yoooo!!! Let’s talk some baseball!!!

2:33

Jordan: Akil Baddoo has some pretty incredible stats for an 18 year old in the Appy league. Think he’s the type of prospect that can really shoot up lists in dynasty circles?

2:34

Paul Sporer: :Googles Akil Baddoo:

2:34

Paul Sporer: Ohhhh THAT Akil Baddoo

2:35

Paul Sporer: I’m sorry, I know literally zero about him and I don’t wanna pretend and mislead you

2:35

Dusty: Anything to report on Twins SS Prospect Wander Javier?

Read the rest of this entry »


Shohei Ohtani Projection and Comparables

A few days ago, Travis Sawchik ask me to help find some comps for the Shohei Ohtani using a 2016 Davenport translation. The list of potential hitters with similar 2018 Steamer projections was impressive (Charlie Blackmon, George Springer, Mookie Betts, Carlos Correa, Yasiel Puig, and Aaron Judge). Additionally, I found pitchers who had similar 2018 projections to his 2016 translation but the list wasn’t as impressive (Jimmy Nelson, James Paxton, Jon Gray, Luis Castillo, Luke Weaver). Thanks to Dan “The Man” Szymborski, a 2018 projection now exists and results will be a little disappointing.

First, from what I heard from most fantasy websites, Ohtani’s will be two separate draftable players. Ohtani the pitcher and Ohtani the hitter. No site, that I know of, has yet to combine the two. If they did, they will likely have to count all the hitting stats accumulated by all pitchers. I hope this doesn’t ever happen.

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