A Manny Comeback?

When Manny Being Manny gave way to Manny Being Bannied last season, Manny Ramirez chose to retire from the Tampa Bay Rays after 17 putrid plate appearances rather than face a 100-game suspension for a second PED violation. But, just when it seemed as though we had seen the last of the Green Monster-whizzing slugger with 555 career home runs, Manny is swimming, swinging and showing humility in hopes of getting a Spring Training invite from a club looking for a designated hitter.

Ramirez, 40 in May, still faces a 50-game suspension if a team gives him a chance. We don’t really know what type of shape he’s in or what he has been up to over the past nine months — cutting off outfield throws in Beer League softball games, selling giant grills, pointing at David Ortiz on TV (and wondering why he doesn’t point back)…your guess is as good as mine. And, as Matt Klaassen opined earlier this week, the Manny Market may consist of only Texas, Minnesota, Toronto and Tampa (though I really doubt that last one). But, assuming Manny does get an offer and a chance at playing time come June, what might his batting line be? To get a rough idea, let’s look at his recent performance and the history of greybearded DHs.

There’s not much of anything to be gleaned from Manny’s brief trial at the Trop in 2011, so let’s focus on the two years prior to that. Ramirez was still an offensive force as recently as 2009, hitting .290/.418/.531, swatting 19 home runs and rocking an on-base-plus slugging percentage that was 53 percent better than the league average during a PED suspension-shortened season. In 2010, however, Manny stopped mashing as much. Check out this graph of his Isolated Power by season (in green), with the league average in blue:

His ISO tumbled from .241 in ’09 (in the top 30 among batters with at least 400 plate appearances) to .162 in 2010, which wasn’t all that far from the .155 big league average that season. Manny’s superb plate discipline still allowed him to post a .409 OBP, but his adjusted OPS declined to 38 percent better than the league average. The main reason for the power decline was a big uptick in ground balls hit:

He grounded out about 33 percent of the time in 2009, but that shot up to 43 percent in 2010. Manny was bothered by a strained calf that limited him to 320 plate appearances, so that could have contributed to his worm-burning woes.

It seemed like a move to Tampa as a full-time DH in 2011 would help him rest his legs and regain his power stroke, but we’ll never know how that might have worked out. What we’re left with is a guy with a great eye, declining pop and a year without seeing live pitching. The Hardball Times’ Oliver projection system has a .272/.374/.452 forecast for Manny in 2012. There’s obviously more uncertainty around that projection than most, but that translates to about an OPS about 13 percent better than the league average if run-scoring levels remain similar to last year.

History suggests that even that level of performance would be very rare for a bat-only player who has celebrated his 40th birthday. According to Baseball-Reference, there are just 10 player seasons in which a 40-plus year-old DH managed an above-average OPS while getting at least 400 plate appearances. And of those ten, only four really raked at the plate (all at age 40): Edgar Martinez (141 OPS+ in 2003), Dave Winfield (137 OPS+ in 1992), Harold Baines (135 OPS+ in 1999) and Brian Downing (132 OPS+ in 1991). Should Manny meet his 2012 Oliver projection, he would slot in between Reggie Jackson and Carl Yastrzemski at number six all-time:

Rk	Player	OPS+	PA	Year	Age	Tm
1	Edgar Martinez	141	603	2003	40	SEA
2	Dave Winfield	137	670	1992	40	TOR
3	Harold Baines	135	486	1999	40	TOT
4	Brian Downing	132	476	1991	40	TEX
5	Reggie Jackson	116	517	1986	40	CAL
6	Carl Yastrzemski	110	523	1982	42	BOS
7	Carl Yastrzemski	106	437	1983	43	BOS
8	Dave Winfield	105	594	1993	41	MIN
9	Paul Molitor	104	597	1997	40	MIN
10	Darrell Evans	104	522	1988	41	DET

I have no idea whether Manny can be a role model, but this is where his career is at: he’s closing in on 40, showed less pop and durability prior to a hasty retirement and will go something like 14 months between regular-season at-bats, if he can find a team to give him playing time. Projections and history suggest it would be an upset if he can put up more than an OPS in the low .800s.

There’s no risk in keeping an eye on Manny this winter and spring. If everything breaks right, he could be a high-OBP, moderate slugging batter who gives your team a cheap boost come June. Maybe he even has a Winfield or Baines-esque season in him. But that’s if he’s healthy and if he can convince one of a small number of suitors that he’s still got something left to offer. As always, we’re left wondering what Manny will do next.