ADP to Replacement Player Projected Stats Spreadsheet

Necessity is the mother of invention. –Plato

I wanted to know how owners were valuing Michael Brantley’s playing time. Currently, at NFBC, he is going 233rd overall in NFBC drafts. Over a full season, he is projected to be more productive than the two outfielders going right before him, Carlos Beltran and Randal Grichuk. Owners, via calculations or their gut, are significantly downgrading a full season Brantley. But by how much? I needed to find the league replacement value.

I could go through all the whole league setting and final the values like I did for my Tout Wars league. While I recommend this detailed procedure for any league an owner takes seriously. I was just looking for a quick answer and stumbled upon one while looking over my Fantrax league.

Our friends at FanTrax.com have their players listed with projected stats and ADP. Having both downloadable made a projection sheet quickly come together.

I found the best-fit equations for the ADP for each of the various stats. Then I inserted them into this spreadsheet which automatically spits out the average projections for Fantrax’s ADP. The spreadsheet can be downloaded by going to File -> Download and then change the yellow cells. While the projections and ADP’s values don’t perfectly line up with other websites, it does give a nice general idea of the average player’s value for his ADP.

One note on the spreadsheet, I created it with the intention of getting replacement level players. Some of the values at the top end can get overly optimistic and should be ignored.

Additionally, I added the coding for an owner to enter their league, roster, bench sizes. With these values, the bench and waiver wire replacement level players are outputted. Finally, I created a sheet for starting pitchers.

I stayed away from relievers. So much of their value is tied to Saves which is has nothing to do with their talent and all do with how their manager utilizes them.

So now go back to Brantley. Here are the average player taken at Brantley’s ADP, the bench replacement player who will fill in when Brantley is not playing, and a full season Brantley projection.

Brantley, ADP, and Replacement Level Stats
Stat ADP player Replacement player Brantley (full season)
PA 518 453 600
AB 475 475 534
AVG 0.259 0.254 0.291
OBP 0.323 0.317 0.359
Runs 60 49 72
HR 14 12 15
RBI 57 46 75
SB 8 7 10

By using the NFBC SGP values Tanner Bell created at Smart Baseball, I can weigh the final values. The SGP for the ADP was 23.8 with the replacement player at 21.2 points and Brantley at 29.4 points. The weights to get to a 23.8 value is 32% to Brantley and the rest as the replacement player. Assuming 600 PA, this means owners think Brantley will get only 190 PA. This value feels about right to me.

I ended up with the projected plate appearances I wanted and everyone has a simple spreadsheet to get a quick an easy way to get the projected stats for most ADPs.



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Jeff writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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White Jar
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White Jar

So cool. I get an uneasy feeling when using things that I don’t fully understand though. The formulas are like nothing I’ve ever used.