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Week 27 Mixed-League FAAB “Estimates”

Trying to estimate how much who FAAB bidding will go has been a humbling experience. While I’ll likely to break down the entire process during the offseason, it’s just one more bidding cycle. The only requirement this week is “spend it if you got it”. The dollars aren’t rolling over to next season.

My model was off for the past week as owners began taking my advice a week early. The number of bids jumped from the previous week (562 to 568) with the average bid just dropping from $6.7 to $6.5. My model projected a spending drop which effectively did not happen.

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Daily Starters – Saturday, September 22th

Many decent arms, even for bad teams, throw on Saturday. While there are usually quite a few pitchers under 20% owned to examine, I pushed the threshold up to 43% and still only have eight pitchers. It’s not pretty out there.

Jose Urena (43%) vs Reds

There is a reason Urena is the most owned of this group, he’s better than the rest. He’s been a steaming option all season with a 7.0 K/9 and 4.21 ERA with estimators to match. The Reds lineup is not intimidating especially since the game is in Miami with the spacious ballpark. Stream away.

Jaime Barria (37%) at Astros

The Astros are starting Verlander, so the Win is already in doubt. Like Urena, Barria has been a streamable option all season with similar stats (6.8 K/9, 3.61 ERA). The difference here is the opponent.

Astros > Reds

Even with the bad matchup, Barria is not a horrible streaming option compared to some of the other arms.

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Daily Starters – Thursday, September 20th

With the smaller Thursday game slate, I expanded my normal Fantrax ownership out to 25%. In all, there are a couple decent options.

Jason Vargas (25%) at Nationals

Look at those home runs (1.9 HR/9) and the .325 BABIP. That’s what happens with a lefty is sitting at 86.5 mph, he gets hit around. His 6.47 ERA would even be worse without his 7.9 K/9.

As for his value in this game, he’s very borderline and it may come down to league depth. The Nationals are middle of the pack against lefties and are going with unproven Joe Ross. The chose to use him is a coin flip.

Jorge Lopez (19%) at Tigers

Like with Vargas, the outlook isn’t great but some of the other options are horrible. Lopez has been able to be a productive low strikeout, high walk pitcher by limiting the damage done by batted balls (.289 BABIP, 0.5 HR/9). His 47% GB% doesn’t point to him being either a groundball or flyball pitcher but he’s both.

His four-seamer (29% GB%) and slider (36% GB%) are high flyball pitches. His curve (61% GB%) and change (65% GB%) are the groundball pitches. His major issue is that his sinker, which he throws more than any pitch, has a middle of the road 44% GB%. Also, it has the lowest swinging-strike rate (5%) of any of this pitches. There are signs he could be more. I’m just not sure it’ll happen this season.

He’s a reasonable streamer except for those owners needing to protect their WHIP. He’s always been prone to giving up walks and this season it’s no different (3.8 BB/9).

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Daily Starters – Monday, September 17th

For today’s limited game slate, I pushed my normal Fantrax’s ownership rate to 23% to snag a few more arms.

Ryan Borucki at Baltimore (23%)

The 24-year-old lefty is not a bad option considering he’s facing the Orioles with Andrew Cashner on the mound. Borucki isn’t going to provide a ton of strikeouts (5.9 K/9) but his low HR/9 (0.6) has kept his ERA reasonable (4.26).

Trevor Richards vs Nationals (22%)

Richards is the day’s best strikeout option (8.9 K/9) but he’s ratio killer (1.46 WHIP and 4.85 ERA). He gets a small boost since he’s a flyball pitcher (35% GB%) throwing at home where he HR/9 is 0.9 while 1.3 on the road. There are worse options like ….

Andrew Cashner vs Blue Jays (21%)

No way. The only possible desired outcome will be a Win since he is going against Ryan Borucki. Of the pitchers with at least 150 IP, his K%-BB% is the league’s lowest at 5%. Just stay away.
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Sunday Evening FAAB & Waiver Wire Chat

7:31
hscer: most droppable? (next opponent listed) Fiers-MIN; Urena-CIN; Minor-SEA; Matz-@PHI; Sabathia-BAL; Lucchesi-SF. thanks

7:32
Jeff Zimmerman: Urena or Minor

7:32
Enlightening Round: Best source for finding out who will actually start over the last two weeks? My points league has a cap on starting pitching for our two week final and I have to choose wisely

7:34
Jeff Zimmerman: It’s a little late in the season to possibly pay the full price, but I live off the Razzball.com weekly/daily projections. Ruby Gamble runs it and he knows his shit. For many of the best out there, it’s one-stop shopping.

7:34
Joe B: need wins- Godley has been horrible. Would you  pick up CC Sabathia who has been pretty bad in September but he does have a start this week against Baltimore?

7:34
Jeff Zimmerman: CC is a great streamer this week

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Week 26 Mixed-League FAAB Estimates

The FAAB bids this past week at the NFBC’s Main Event mirrored the regular season, almost dead. Even so, I’m back for another week of estimates for the upcoming bidding cycle.

First off, here is a snapshot of last week’s results.

On average, the bids were significantly higher than expected except with some rookie call-ups. I went back to the drawing board and completely reworked my formulas with some historically acceptable results.

My current quandary is making the estimates more usable. Before next season, I can reexamine the information with fresh eyes and possibly explore other options.
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Daily Starters – Saturday, September 15th

Compared to yesterday’s streaming options, today’s group could win the Cy Young. While there are still some clunkers a few usable options exist. For the pitcher examined, I’m using pitcher owned in 20% or fewer FanTrax leagues.

Erasmo Ramirez at Angels (18%)

I’d have no issues starting him for this game. His year-long results look uninviting (5.31 ERA and 2.3 HR/9) but he’s pitched decently since coming off the DL (shoulder). Since returning, he’s posted a 7.1 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, and 3.68 ERA.

He’ll face a beatable Angels team starting Andrew Heaney. He’s a fine streaming option.

Sean Reid-Foley at Yankees (15%)

I didn’t like what I saw from Reid-Foley when he debuted and nothing has changed (6.86 ERA, 9.4 K/9, 1.62 WHIP). Now, if an owner is only needing strikeouts and doesn’t mind how much the rest of his stats get abused, Reid-Foley is the day’s best strikeout option.

Yonny Chirinos vs A’s (14%)

I’m a little surprised Chirinos’s ownership is only 14%. He’s a perfectly fine streaming option (7.4 K/9, 3.81 ERA) and faces a shaky Trevor Cahill.
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Daily Starters – Friday, September 14

Tomorrow will be a horrible day to stream. I can barely recommend two pitchers.

All the pitchers were selected had a Fantrax ownership rate of 20% or less.

Eric Lauer vs Rangers (15%)

This game is the pillow fight of the day especially with Lauer facing Yohander Mendez. I could see some random one-out LOOGY get the Win in this game.

Besides Ross, Lauer is probably the day’s best strikeout option. What a bad day.
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American League Lineup Analysis

Angels

Astros

  • It’s set with the exception of Marwin Gonzalez playing more since he’s heated up (.268/.316/.563 over the last 28 days).

Athletics

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Sunday Evening FAAB & Waiver Wire Chat

7:31
Jake Junis Priest: Hi! Curious if you’d cut any of Cahill/Y. Chirinos/Shoemaker for Josh James if I need ratios/K’s/W’s or if I should sit tight. Thanks!

7:33
Jeff Zimmerman: Cahill’s start today was killer. I haven’t had a chance to look but all the starters listed should be considered streaming options from here on out.

7:33
Jeff Zimmerman: Since you need everything, you just have to go by the matchup.

7:33
Parts + Gleyber: Cahill’s 6 BBs in 2.2 today had me a little alarmed though I didn’t get to watch it live. He’s got TB this week, but on the road, where he’s struggled. Is it time to jump ship in AL Only?

7:34
Jeff Zimmerman: He may be a drop or bench. I’m a little worried he’s hurt again and when he throws hurt, the results are horrible.

7:35
Jeff Zimmerman: Since he’s with a playoff team, he could say he’s fine but continue to get lit up.

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