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Estimating Playing Plate Appearances Knowing Team Talent

I just got done writing up my hitter breakouts and need to make several playing time adjustments based on my projected lineup spot. I needed to find out how many plate appearances the lineup spot generated. After about a half dozen lookups, I decided to just create a simple table with the values. Read the rest of this entry »


Mining the News (3/12/24)

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

American League

Angels

• The manager named Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers, Tyler Anderson, Griffin Canning, and Chase Silseth to the starting rotation.

The Angels aren’t ready to name their Opening Day starter just yet but Washington said his five starters will be lefties Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers and Tyler Anderson and right-handers Griffin Canning and Chase Silseth. It’s not a surprise but Washington clarified his rotation because of the emergence of right-hander José Soriano, who is getting stretched out as a starter after a breakout rookie year in relief last season.

José Soriano will continue to be stretched out as a starter.

For right-hander José Soriano, it was welcome news when he was told that he’d be stretched out as a starting pitcher this spring, as he wanted to give starting another chance even after his strong rookie season in relief last year.

Orioles

Kolten Wong will play some third base.

The Orioles took Wong up on that offer on Friday night, when the 33-year-old made his professional debut at third base in a 4-3 win over the Tigers at Ed Smith Stadium.

Entering the night, Wong had played in 1,189 regular-season MLB games, 38 postseason contests, 320 Minor League games and 183 Spring Training exhibitions — and he hadn’t appeared at third base in any of them. Wong didn’t think he had played third in a game since his time at the University of Hawaii at Manoa, which he attended from 2009-11.

Rangers

• Evan Carter will not be platooned.

It’s clear that Carter — MLB Pipeline’s No. 5 overall prospect — isn’t going to platoon. And he’s confident in his own abilities to hit any type of pitching. In a small sample this spring, he’s gone 2-for-9 in Cactus League play, already doubling his total from the big leagues last season.

“He’s getting more and more comfortable, and that comes with reps that we’ve said he’s going to get,” Bochy said. “Yeah, it’s going well with him.”

Royals

• Alec Marsh is being built up as a starter.

How does Marsh fit on the 2024 Royals? He’s building up as a starter, but he could be in a variety of roles if he’s on the outside looking in at the five-man rotation. He could be used in long relief. The Royals could use an opener for him, like they did last year.

• Nick Pratto is healthy after dealing with injuries over the past two seasons.

Finally healthy after two years of fighting through hip and groin injuries, Pratto feels like himself again – and he’s hitting like it. He has a 1.032 OPS in seven games (19 at-bats) with just three strikeouts this spring, and he’s looked much more aggressive in the zone than last year, when he had a 22% called strike rate. That was the 10th-highest mark among 293 players with at least 300 plate appearances.

“I felt like I was hitting without a backside for a long time,” Pratto said. “Swinging at pitches I don’t normally swing at, having to sell out to certain areas. Taking balls I don’t normally take because I wasn’t able to control my body.

Twins

• David Festa is getting all buff.

And the final step in Festa’s development might be physical development.

“I get pretty sore just based on the fact that I’m not a big, muscular guy, so really, the volume has kind of allowed me to not be as sore in my legs and my arm,” Festa said. “I think that’s something that will help me throughout the season.”

Especially as Festa’s stuff has continued to tick up in his time with the Twins, he admits that he hasn’t tended to recover well after outings due to his frame, with his velocity not sustaining well at times in outings and deeper into the season due to fatigue.

With that in mind, the Twins connected Festa with a trainer close to home in New Jersey, and the right-hander went in five times a week for volume lifting, functional lifting and more unilateral work as part of his offseason strengthening program.

• Jose Miranda felt healthy around December and will focus on playing first base.

Meanwhile, Miranda said he began feeling healthy again around December. He spent most of the winter rehabbing and training at the club’s complex in Fort Myers, working to refine his swing and lock in his timing so that when camp opened, he could hit the ground running.

He’s 6-for-13 (.462) with two walks so far this spring and on Friday played five innings at first base, his first defensive action since the operation.

“He looks stronger physically than he did last spring, and pretty comfortable at the plate,” manager Rocco Baldelli said. “He needs to go over to first base and handle that position, take ownership of that position. He needs to become a quality first baseman.”

White Sox

• Colson Montgomery is “really close” to joining the major league team.

Colson Montgomery, the White Sox No. 1 prospect and No. 9 overall per MLB Pipeline, was reassigned to Minor League camp as one of seven roster moves made prior to Monday’s loss.

But the shortstop is getting “really close” to the Majors, according to Grifol.

“It was a good conversation with him today,” said Grifol of Montgomery. “He’s obviously ultra talented. He does a lot of things right on the field. But one of the things I told him was that he’s always on the clock. What I mean by that is people always are looking at him.

• Eloy Jiménez adjusted his swing to get more lift.

There’s now an adjustment in Jiménez’s swing with his hands held higher, a suggestion made to him during the offseason by Amaury Nina, his godfather who also happens to be his hitting coach. It’s a way for Jiménez to combat a career 50.4 percent ground ball rate, according to Statcast, which has never been below 47.6 percent in a single season.

National League

Braves

Ronald Acuña Jr. plans to keep running.

Acuña produced MLB’s first 40-70 season when he hit 41 homers and stole 73 bases last year. Snitker has said this recent knee ailment won’t affect how aggressive Acuña is on the bases this year.

“He’s still young and he’s still at an age where he can still [steal a lot of bases],” Snitker said. “He’s going to reach a time where he’s going to slow down on his own. For now, you’ve just got to let a kid like that loose and let him play his game.”

Brewers

• Brice Turang will start at second base.

Manager Pat Murphy named Turang the starter at second base on Tuesday — right where the 24-year-old finished off his rookie season after serving as Milwaukee’s second baseman during the National League Wild Card Series.

“I think this kid’s gonna make a quantum leap,” Murphy said. “I think he’ll establish himself as an everyday player. I’m really confident.”

Cardinals

• Victor Scott II is not an option for one of the team’s outfield spots.

Prospect Victor Scott II doesn’t seem to be an option at this time.

“I think we have to be a little bit more patient with (Scott),” Mozeliak said. “Clearly he’s opened up some eyes early on, but we have three weeks of camp left, so a lot of time to still make some judgments and decisions.”

Cubs

• The team will try to pitch Shota Imanaga every sixth day.

What throws a little wrinkle into how the rotation plays out to start the season is Shota Imanaga’s schedule. Coming from Japan, Imanaga is accustomed to pitching every sixth day. Imanaga has remained on that schedule this spring and while Counsell has said they won’t go to a six-man rotation, there have been hints that they’ll be creative with how to get him some rest.

“He’s gonna be a starter,” Counsell said. “How often he pitches — we’re not going to make a special schedule for Shota, we’re going to make a schedule for our pitching staff.”

Giants

• Alex Cobb is ahead of schedule and won’t be put on the 60-day IL.

However, Cobb appears slightly ahead of schedule as he works back from last year’s hip labrum repair.

The veteran righty got through a 25-pitch bullpen session yesterday and will throw live batting practice early next week. Manager Bob Melvin told reporters that while the team will be cautious not to push Cobb too quickly, they’ve “probably sped (the timeline) up a little bit” based on his progress (via MLB.com). The team announced a six-month recovery timetable for Cobb to log game action of any kind when he underwent surgery on Halloween.

It now looks as if he could be on track for a minor league rehab assignment earlier than that. To this point, the Giants have kept him off the 60-day injured list — a move that would prevent him from pitching at the MLB level before May 27.

• Nick Ahmed has the inside track to be the team’s starting shortstop.

With less than three weeks to go until Opening Day, it’s beginning to look like Luciano may no longer have the inside track. The Giants’ No. 2 prospect was slowed by a hamstring issue early in camp, prompting the club to bring in two-time Gold Glove Award winner Nick Ahmed on Minor League deal last month.

Manager Bob Melvin said the Giants haven’t made a decision, but it felt notable that Ahmed started at shortstop in Thursday night’s game against the Dodgers, which featured most of the club’s regulars following Wednesday’s off-day.


“The defense is what the priority was,” Melvin said. “We talked about infield defense. Chapman is here. But I think it’s [Ahmed’s] health. He had the shoulder thing, and we want to see what it looks like compared to the past. So far, so good. He’s also had big offensive years, too. It doesn’t surprise you when he hits the ball over the fence. He’s got a couple of those already.”

Marlins

• The team will split the catching duties between Christian Bethancourt 베탄코트 and Nick Fortes fifty-fifty.

“I’m pretty confident Nick knows how to catch Luzardo, so I’m just trying to make sure everybody knows each other, and then make a decision maybe a week before camp breaks and to see exactly who’s going to get bulk and that type of thing,” Schumaker said. “I’ve got no problem pinch-hitting still, and they’re both going to play maybe the same day, whatever. Maybe the offensive profile just takes off. I don’t know. But I think to say it’s 50-50, I don’t know. It’s not a good answer for you right now, but it’s also [March 9] or whatever it is, so time will tell.”

Padres

• Dennis Lin of The Athletic believes Graham Pauley will fill in at third base while Manny Machado is the DH.

This was always a distinct possibility for Machado coming off right elbow extensor tendon repair. He will ease back, at some point, into regularly playing third base. In the meantime, Pauley has emerged as a strong contender to fill in at third base (and first base) in Machado’s defensive absence. Yes, between Pauley and Merrill — who essentially has been a roster lock for some time — the Padres could start two rookies on Opening Day with limited experience above Single A.

Pirates

Oneil Cruz is healthy and hitting the ball hard.

[Cruz’s] first swing of the day was a 412-foot missile off a Max Castillo fastball, which left the bat at 116.6 mph.

In the Statcast era (since 2015), the only Pirate who has hit a harder homer was, of course, Cruz (117.5 mph on Aug. 29, 2022).

The next inning, Cruz was caught a bit off balance against a Castillo changeup. It didn’t matter, and he blasted that one 434 feet, leaving the bat at 114.4 mph.

Reds

• Nick Lodolo will be skipped the first time through the rotation.

Though Lodolo’s slow progression this spring won’t have him ready for the first turn through the rotation in the regular season, he is on schedule to join the Reds very soon thereafter. Cincinnati made investments in veterans Frankie Montas and Nick Martinez to support the rotation, but the biggest upside still exists in Lodolo and Hunter Greene shaking off last year’s injury issues and continuing their upward trajectory.

Rockies

Brenton Doyle’s swing has become more efficient.

The Rockies identified some mechanical adjustments Doyle could make toward the end of last season. It’s only early March, but the early returns have been good.

Doyle has focused on being more efficient with his swing, positioning his hands in such a way that he has a more direct path to the baseball. He’s also been keeping more weight on his back leg during his set-up at the plate.

“It’s about giving my eyes a little more time to react to pitches,” Doyle said. “And the point right before I get my barrel through the zone, just keeping that a little tighter than I usually do. It helps me stay inside the ball — that’s been a big emphasis.”


2024 Fantasy Pitcher Breakouts – Zimmerman’s Picks

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Like with my Busts, I consider breakouts to be players who will out-earn their current costs. Most of the time, my breakouts aren’t exciting prospects but stable veterans who aren’t sexy anymore. If you want exciting picks, look elsewhere. If you want league winners, stay around.


Changelog

  • 3/12/2024: Initial list

Ranking Methodology

  • ADP is based on 30-day rolling NFBC Draft Champions Leagues.
  • $ Values are based on standard 5×5 12-team league using the FanGraphs Depth Charts and these Auction Calculator settings. They default to a player’s most valuable position, so if the first base list includes a catcher, it will show that player’s value at catcher.
  • ADP and $ Values are updated as of the last update date on this post.
  • 5-game eligibility was used for these lists to cast the widest net (though that’s not a big deal at SP).

Read the rest of this entry »


Outfield 2024 Fantasy Rankings

Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports

Updates

  • I quickly reran the rankings with a big boost to Sean Bouchard’s and Estevan Florial’s playing time.

Outfield Overview

The outfield position allows a fantasy manager to a certain player at all points of the draft. Early speed, late speed. Early power late power. Also, there is always a balanced player available.

The big oh-no moment happens around the 90th-ranked outfielder is that strong-side platoons start.  There are around 20 players with at least dual eligibility but that still leaves about 70 good full-timers to draft. In a 12-team, five-outfielder league, the total needed is 60, so the starters are covered, and most of the bench bats. It’s when a league is 15-team or deeper, platoon bats come into play.

With each additional revision, I will expand the list beyond 110 guys and include more writeups. I will put all of the changes here at the beginning so there is no reason to go searching the article for them.


Changelog

  • 3/11/2024 – Reranked a few guys but not much of a change
  • 2/23/2024 – Boost to Sean Bouchard’s and Estevan Florial’s playing time
  • 2/13/2024 – Jorge Soler and Jurickson Profar signed.
  • 2/8/2024 – Reworked playing time on many guys and wrote a few more evaluations.
  • 1/31/2024 – Added new projections to my base evaluation.
  • 1/22/2024 – Added writeups on a few players and added a few more prospects.
  • 1/15/2024 – Added about a dozen players and included a few more player writeups.
  • 1/8/2024 – Expanded outfield list. Note changes for three traded players and Hernandez signing. Added another tier on part-time players.
  • 1/4/2024 – Harrison Bader signed and a new tier added.
  • 1/4/2024 – First Release

Ranking Methodology

  • ADP is based on 30-day rolling NFBC Draft Champions Leagues.
  • $ Values are based on standard 5×5 12-team league using the FanGraphs Depth Charts and these Auction Calculator settings. They default to a player’s most valuable position, so if the first base list includes a catcher, it will show that player’s value at catcher.
  • ADP and $ Values are updated as of the last update date on this post.
  • 5-game eligibility was used for these lists to cast the widest net.

Read the rest of this entry »


Top-200 Hitters 2024 Fantasy Rankings

Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Several projections became publicly available this week (THE BAT X and ZiPS) so my overall valuations changed. I only noted the early players who have moved by 10 or more spots and 20 spots for the tiered or worse hitters.


Changelog

  • 3/11/2024 – Again, just trying to focus on playing time.
  • 2/23/2024 – Moved some guys based on playing time.
  • 2/9/2024 – Just reranked a few players
  • 1/30/2024 – Incorporated some more projections into my base rankings.
  • 1/19/2024 – Tiered the next 50 hitters (250 total) and messed a bit on the catcher value in the overall ranks.
  • 1/12/2024 – First release.

Ranking Methodology

  • ADP is based on 30-day rolling NFBC Draft Champions Leagues.
  • $ Values are based on standard 5×5 12-team league using the FanGraphs Depth Charts and these Auction Calculator settings. They default to a player’s most valuable position, so if the first base list includes a catcher, it will show that player’s value at catcher.
  • ADP and $ Values are updated as of the last update date on this post.
  • 5-game eligibility was used for these lists to cast the widest net.

Read the rest of this entry »


Mining the News (3/9/24)

• Here is a list of players out of options. Either they will need to remain on the major league team or be released.

Read the rest of this entry »


2024 Fantasy Hitter Breakouts – Zimmerman’s Picks

Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

For Breakouts, I think these hitters will outperform their current draft cost. With hitters, I’ve found I don’t have a knack to determine which hitters will outperform their projections besides looking at playing time. The projections catch most of the other adjustments (e.g. new home park, aging adjustments, etc…).

I divided the players up by 50 spots of ADP so fantasy managers could consider the players in their league depth. 


Changelog

  • 3/7/2024: Initial list

Ranking Methodology

  • ADP is based on 30-day rolling NFBC Draft Champions Leagues.
  • $ Values are based on standard 5×5 12-team league using the FanGraphs Depth Charts and these Auction Calculator settings. They default to a player’s most valuable position, so if the first base list includes a catcher, it will show that player’s value at catcher.
  • ADP and $ Values are updated as of the last update date on this post.
  • 5-game eligibility was used for these lists to cast the widest net (though that’s not a big deal at SP).

Read the rest of this entry »


Mining the News (3/4/24)

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

• I expected more articles on the effects of the pitch clock but here is the first one I’ve seen. While I would have liked more details on results/methods used, it did find that “slow” starters struggled more than “slow” relievers. They used fWAR to determine if the pitcher struggled. I wish they would have divided up the talent and playing time components.

Though there are a number of factors at play in determining how well a pitcher performs, we can, at the very least, hypothesize that starters were more greatly impacted by the pitch clock than relievers. Starters’ changes in fWAR and tempo between ‘22 and ‘23 were more heavily correlated (0.55) than those of relievers (0.35). While correlation doesn’t imply causation, it does lead us to believe that starters were likely more strained from a performance standpoint than relievers. This would make sense, too, when considering the staminal game starters endure as opposed to the fast-paced, max-effort environment relievers face.

Read the rest of this entry »


Mining the News (2/29/24)

Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

American League

Angels

• The team plans on running more.

Angels manager Ron Washington said he plans to change that this year and it’s already showing up early this spring. The Angels have stolen 11 bases through their first five games, which ranks second among all clubs this spring. Washington is coming from the Braves, who stole 132 bases last year, which ranked 10th in the Majors, while they were also the best team in baseball at taking the extra base at 51 percent. Washington’s teams with the Rangers were also aggressive and led by basestealers such as Elvis Andrus and Ian Kinsler.

“I think everybody is going to be pleased because that’s what they were used to seeing from the Angels, when Mike [Scioscia] was managing, it was a regularity,” Washington said. “When I was in Texas, it was a regularity and when I was in Atlanta, it was a regularity. We stole five bases yesterday and three before that, but I want these guys to keep building. I don’t think teams are going to let us run crazy but if they fall asleep, we’re going to run. I want to be aggressive, that’s the way I want to play.”

Read the rest of this entry »


Mining the News (2/28/24)

Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Note: Some of the “news” isn’t really that new. I went back to the beginning of Spring Training and dug for as many nuggets as possible. If I felt the information was useful, I added it.

American League

Angels

• Manager Ron Washington has voiced how he sees the lineup working out.

Washington initially pegged first baseman Nolan Schanuel as his leadoff batter but said he now envisions him as the club’s No. 2 hitter because of the way he gets on base and handles the bat. Infielder Luis Rengifo or right fielder Mickey Moniak could serve as leadoff hitter, while Washington sees Mike Trout hitting third and Anthony Rendon batting cleanup.

“I want somebody who has some speed,” Washington said. “I don’t want Schanuel to get on the bag and then clog them. Now, if I have to come back and make him the leadoff hitter because that’s what he’s done, I’m not saying it can’t change. But I want him in the second hole because he can move the baseball around the field and the second hole is situational.”

After Rendon, Washington said he sees Taylor Ward as his fifth hitter, Brandon Drury sixth and Logan O’Hoppe seventh. Jo Adell, Aaron Hicks or Moniak would likely hit eighth, and Zach Neto is slated to be the club’s No. 9 hitter. Washington views Neto as a second leadoff hitter and said it’s a role that Neto is embracing.

“Neto told me he wants to hit ninth,” Washington said. “He loves restarting and turning the lineup over. He wants to be on the bag and score runs with the big guys at the plate. He said he wanted to hit ninth, and that kid had no hesitation. He knew exactly what he wanted to do.”

Washington said he doesn’t see the Angels changing lineups or batting orders often, as he wants to create some stability. But he also knows things can change over the course of a season and will adapt as necessary.

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