Batted Ball Outliers: Part Timers

Yesterday, I looked at the batted ball data for full time hitters. Today, I moved onto the hitters that had between 150 and 400 PA in 2011. There are more outliers in these groups because the hitter’s batted ball data did not have a chance to stabilize.


Jason Giambi 29.5% 152
Andruw Jones 25.0% 222
Mark Reynolds 22.9%

No young players sneaking up onto this list. Just the 2 part time vets


Name LD% PA
Nick Punto 31.0% 166
Salvador Perez 29.2% 158
Trayvon Robinson 28.8% 155
Kyle Seager 27.7% 201
J.D. Martinez 27.6% 226
David Ross 26.3% 171
Ruben Tejada 25.7% 376
Willie Bloomquist 25.2% 381
Bryan Petersen 25.0% 241
Magglio Ordonez 25.0% 357
Rob Johnson 25.0% 199
Todd Helton 24.9%

Salvador Perez – Sal should see plenty of attention going into next season. A catcher that hits 0.300 will get noticed. He won’t continue to hit LD at a near 30% rate. Pitchers will find a weakness in his swing and the numbers will come down.


Alejandro De Aza 0.404 171
Reed Johnson 0.394 266
Jimmy Paredes 0.383 179
Austin Jackson 0.369

Carlos Quentin 0.242
Mike McCoy 0.240 228
Rene Tosoni 0.240 189
Jason Michaels 0.236 169
Brian Roberts 0.236 178
Manny Burriss 0.233 152
Matt Tolbert 0.233 226
Jeff Mathis 0.233 281
Hank Conger 0.231 197
Brandon Crawford 0.228 220
Michael Martinez 0.220 234
Jorge Cantu 0.216 155
Chone Figgins 0.215 313
Chris Stewart 0.213 183
Kelly Shoppach 0.212 253
Michael Saunders 0.212 179
Dioner Navarro 0.210 202
Anthony Rizzo 0.210 153
Jayson Nix 0.209 151
Adam LaRoche 0.205 177
J.R. Towles 0.200 165
Craig Counsell 0.197 187
Drew Butera 0.194 254
Tyler Colvin 0.175 222

Alejandro De Aza – He is getting mentioned as next year’s lead off hitter for the White Sox. The possible drop he may see in AVG could easily be made up with SB and Runs.

Hank Conger – He always had a BABIP over 0.300 in the minors. He can’t seem to get it over 0.250 in the majors. He needs to finally break through or he may have a long future as a journeyman catcher.

Brian Roberts – He was hitting bad before losing the season to a concussion. I like him as a buy low candidate in 2012. I would not have him as my first choice at 2B, but would take a late round flier on him.

Chone Figgins – I have no idea why the Mariners just haven’t cut the cord on him.

Anthony Rizzo – He was one of the players that came over in the Adrian Gonzalez trade. He is a long ball hitter with 20 or more HRs over the last 2 years in the minors. While with the MLB club, he hit only 1 HR. A low LD% (13.4%), high K% (30%) and fly balls that won’t leave the stadium (2.8% HR/FB) will lead to the 0.141 AVG. Hopefully he will have a better 2012. It almost can’t get any worse.

Tyler Colvin – Tyler looks like a home run hitter that can’t hit home run. After hitting 20 home runs with a HR/FB ratio of 19.4% in 2010, he only hit 6 HRs in 2011 with a 8.6% HR/FB ratio. I just don’t think he can hit good enough to make it in the majors.

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Jeff writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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I’m not sure Conger will have really any fantasy value or even given the chance because Scioscia has a fetish for Jeff Mathis


The funny thing is that S-C-I-O-S-C-I-A never really gave him a consistent string of at-bats this season. Mathis complained that his lack of consistent at-bats prevented him from showing his potential but the same has happened to Conger.

Also Conger is a switch hitter who only hit against RHP this year. I sincerely hope they give him a full opportunity this year to show what his glove and offense can do.