Biggest Busts: Second Base & Third Base (ottoneu lwts leagues)

After a one week hiatus, I’m continuing to look at players who have been busts in ottoneu fangraphs points fantasy baseball leagues.  It uses the same model described in this post, although the values have been updated based on year to date statistics.

Second Base

Dan Uggla, ATL
wOBA: .284
Avg. Cost $29.36
Performed As: $1
Value: -$28
Chone Figgins, SEA
wOBA: .214
Avg. Cost: $5.15
Performed As: -$22
Value: -$27
Aaron Hill, TOR
wOBA: .275
Avg. Cost: $10.04
Performed As: -$3
Value: -$13

My Pick: Dan Uggla

 

Uggla is my second baseman in ottoneu (you might remember I also had Mauer and Pujols, who were among the top busts at C and 1B…guess how my ottoneu team is doing!).  Despite a recent surge, he is only now producing at replacement level despite being the third-most expensive second baseman (behind Cano and Pedroia) in the game.  Much has been written about his season-long slump.  He’s BABIPing .204, is hitting more ground balls than ever, swinging more than ever (both in and out of the zone), has his highest swinging strike percentage since 2008, apparently has lost a substantial amount of plate coverage high in the zone, etc.  I don’t know if Uggla can produce as a $29 player the rest of the way.  But I think he can still be a well above-average producer the rest of the way at his position.  If you can buy him for cheap right now, you’re in for a good second half.

Others (Salary – Performance): Jose Lopez (-$13), Ryan Raburn (-$11), Melvin Mora (-$9), Gordon Beckham (-$9)

Third Base

Evan Longoria, TBR
wOBA: .333
Avg. Cost $46.46
Performed As: $15
Value: -$31
Ryan Zimmerman, WAS
wOBA: .331
Avg. Cost: $37.82
Performed As: $9
Value: -$29
David Wright, NYM
wOBA: .343
Avg. Cost: $36.72
Performed As: $12
Value: -$25

My Pick: Ryan Zimmerman

There was a premium on the perceived top-tier 3B’s this preseason, and all three of these guys were in that perceived top tier.  And all of them have combined to both miss substantial time and probably also underperform the mark owners set for them when healthy.  I’m going with Zimmerman for two reasons here.  One, I’m concerned about the degree to which David Wright really will be healthy when he returns, while I think Zimmerman may finally be over his abdominal issues.  Second, his average salary is $9 cheaper than Longoria’s, while I’m not convinced that he’s a better hitter (most projections have them has virtual twins).

Zimmerman does have a few minor warning flags in his hitting line this year, especially that his groundball rate is far above his career averages.  But I think he’s likely to be a great bet the rest of the year.  Unfortunately, if you don’t already own him, I don’t see him as someone who has experienced a substantial drop to his perceived value, so I don’t see him as a buy-low candidate…unless someone is convinced his abdominal issues are going to be an ongoing problem.

Others: Brandon Inge (-$19), Pedro Alvarez (-$17), Casey McGehee (-$17), Dan Johnson (-$12), Ian Stewart (-$11), Jorge Cantu (-$10)



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Justin is a lifelong Reds fan, and first played fantasy baseball on Prodigy with a 2400 baud modem. His favorite Excel function is the vlookup(). You can find him on twitter @jinazreds, even though he no longer lives in AZ.


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sean
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sean

gordon beckham wasn’t considered?

sean
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sean

nevermind

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