Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 10/9/2018

Great chat today. Here’s the transcript. Anyone wanna do me a favor and note down everything I said was going to be a future article?

3:55
Brad Johnson: We’ll get this started in a couple minutes.

3:56
Brad Johnson: I ask that you reserve your keeper questions until a more appropriate time. If you have to make them in October, by all means ask away.

3:56
Brad Johnson: But in general, you should wait to make those decision closer to your deadline. No need to fuss about it now.

3:57
Brad Johnson: Let’s have some fun with meatier topics, maybe get a little back and forth going.

3:58
Planet Dust: What’s Wander Franco up to right now?

3:58
Brad Johnson: Whence does Franco Wander?

4:00
Brad Johnson: I video scouted him earlier this season on twitter, caught some heat for it

4:00
Brad Johnson: Because I didn’t simply gush about him being the greatest prospect ever to prospect

4:01
Brad Johnson: There were some rough edges that could be smoothed out to his swing. All-in-all, everything is very encouraging.

4:01
Brad Johnson: For dynasty, I’d view him as a top 5 prospect

4:01
Brad Johnson: Deep dynasty I should add

4:02
Rocco: Who are you higher on in 2019:  Freeland or Marquez?   What is each pitchers upside – Top 20?

4:02
Brad Johnson: Sure, they both have top 20 upside

4:02
Brad Johnson: They’re very different pitchers

4:03
Brad Johnson: And Coors is historically unkind to even mild changes in talent

4:03
Brad Johnson: Nobody has ever pitched well there for more than maybe 2 or 3 seasons

4:04
Brad Johnson: I like Freeland’s elite-ish command more than German’s I’ll overpower ya mentality

4:04
Dood: Dynasty OBP 5×5 roto.  I know this sounds weird, but if I can get top dollar for Altuve, is now the time to sell?  Earl Weaver always said better to sell a year too early than a year too late.

4:04
Dood: Also, thanks for the advice all year.  I didn’t win all my trades but I did win my league!

4:05
Brad Johnson: You might as well sell if you can get a top 5 valuation for a guy who’s showing some signs of breaking down

4:05
Brad Johnson: I think you waited the year too long

4:05
Brad Johnson: Don’t worry, it’s not like you traded Mookie Betts for him (I did!)

4:05
Slurve: How crazy is the Khris Davis batting average thing?

4:06
Brad Johnson: The craziest. I was keeping track of what he needed to do on twitter. And he did it!

4:06
Pat’s Bat: Do yu see a Darvish rebound next year? I have him for 12 bucks in a 10 team H2H and I’m wondering if he’s more of a #2 or #3.

4:06
Brad Johnson: That’s a possible outcome. Remember, when it comes to forecasting, there is no such thing as a knowable future.

4:07
Brad Johnson: For Darvish, potential outcomes range from “does not pitch” to “top 10 SP.”

4:07
Brad Johnson: I would not spend $12 to keep him today. Maybe we get encouraging news by February when it’s time to make that decision

4:07
Rocco: Do you think JDM is a repeat elite stud in 2019, or should we start worrying about age / regression?

4:08
Brad Johnson: I’m unconcerned about JDM. He’s never going to age. At least not at the plate.

4:08
Brad Johnson: Seriously though, injury risk increases with every season, but he’ll remain a monster until something breaks

4:08
Planet Dust: Fun dreaming about Wander Franco, but when so much of the value comes from how good *for how young* he is it’s just so speculative.

4:09
Brad Johnson: I’m not sure I agree. At least as a hitter, I’m confident he could hold his own in the majors right now.

4:09
Brad Johnson: Not saying he’d Juan Soto, but a 85 wRC+ from a 17-year-old isn’t anything to sneeze at

4:10
Ford Murphy: Who has a better hall of fame case: Buster Posey or Yadier Molina? Obviously Posey still has some more years left

4:11
Brad Johnson: This highlights one of the problems with WAR.

4:11
Brad Johnson: They both obviously fall waaaay short by that measure

4:11
Brad Johnson: However, I also think they should both be considered shoo-ins

4:12
Brad Johnson: They were the MVPs of their teams through some long postseason runs. That deserves enshrinement. (Also why I think Chase Utley should be a first ballot HoFer).

4:13
Brad Johnson: Chat questions are coming in slowly so feel free to respond to the prompts if you’re hanging around. I’ll post some stuff up

4:13
Brad Johnson: Otherwise Rocco is getting a billion questions answered

4:14
Rocco: Our 5×5 leagues is moving from BA as one hitting category to OPS.   What are some of the adjustments in thinking I should start making to ace my draft?

4:14
Brad Johnson: The main thing is with power and speed

4:14
Brad Johnson: The Joey Gallos gain a category

4:14
Brad Johnson: The Dee Gordons lose a category

4:15
Brad Johnson: Most of the less extreme players don’t see much change in their value

4:15
Brad Johnson: you could probably jury rig together a spreadsheet to highlight which other players benefit a lot (like Khris Davis)

4:15
hscer: just saw your tweet about how slow this is but so many questions I’d ask are just annoying league-specific ones

4:16
Brad Johnson: Feel free to respond to others questions then, I’d like to get some give and take going but y’all are conditioned to ask a question then wait patiently

4:17
Planet Dust: I am probably out of the running in my league for the next year at least, after trading away draft picks this year trying to three-peat.

My league has 5 free keepers and lets us keep 3 minors guys indefinitely until you bring them up–they are basically extra keepers. So e.g. I have Acuña in a minors slot and he doesn’t count as one of the five “real” keepers.  I also have Wander Franco. Is it crazy to trade Betts for Soto–who is also still in his minors slot? Then try to promote those three (Soto, Acuña, Franco) within a year of each other.

4:17
Brad Johnson: I think you’re overthinking it. And how big is your league?

4:17
Brad Johnson: If we’re talking a relatively vanilla 12-team format, you can compete with Betts, Acuna, and nothing else

4:18
AlGoneQuinn: Were you surprised by Atros trouncing of the Indians? I knew they were good but I didn’t think they were that much better than Cleveland.

4:18
Brad Johnson: I think it was a pretty even matchup that completely fell apart with the Cleveland bullpen

4:18
AlGoneQuinn: FYI Utley has accumulated 63.2 WAR. Trout 64.7.

4:18
Brad Johnson: I mean, Mike Trout is an active Hall of Famer already

4:19
Planet Dust: 10-team league. The minors aspect is really entertaining as we all overvalue the minors guys we spotted to the point where I don’t know that Betts for Soto would be accepted.

4:19
Brad Johnson: Oh geez, do not give up on 2019. You should have no problem contending with Betts, Acuna, and whatever you can scrape off the waiver wire

4:19
Matt: Other than Vladito, who are the prospects I should have on my radar in redraft or keep-few leagues?

4:19
Brad Johnson: Eloy

4:19
Brad Johnson: Senzel has some rebound potential if you already have him

4:20
Brad Johnson: I’m wary of paying for a head injury though

4:20
Brad Johnson: Wander Franco if you’re willing to be patient for a few years

4:20
Brad Johnson: Alex Kirilloff looked interesting, Royce Lewis. I haven’t dug into it for non-deep dynasty yet.

4:21
sleepy: Is max muncy a true talent 140 wrc+?

4:21
Brad Johnson: I wouldn’t go that far

4:21
Brad Johnson: He’s good though

4:21
Tim: Believe it or not Omar Narvaez had the 5th best wOBA among C in 2018 and has a career .366 obp!  Do you see him as the CWS’ primary starter next year and top-10 C in OBP leagues possible?

4:22
Brad Johnson: Not really. I don’t think you can count on more than 100 games.

4:22
Brad Johnson: I mean, I guess that puts him near the fringes of the top 10.

4:22
Brad Johnson: I don’t think you should go out of your way to pay for him. Nothing wrong with last picking him

4:22
sleepy: Do you forgive bryant for a bad 2018 and view him as a first rounder again after the offseason, or do you worry the shoulder will linger?

4:23
Brad Johnson: I’m basically projecting the same in 2019 as I projected for 2018

4:23
Brad Johnson: But here’s the kicker, those aren’t first round numbers anymore

4:23
Brad Johnson: Too many guys broke way the fuck out

4:24
Brad Johnson: We don’t have to worry too much right now, but I suspect a 4th round valuation would be on target

4:24
hscer: Most chatters don’t let chattees do stuff. There was one time ~five years ago, with a different chat client, when some people were allowed to post without moderation. That happened once and I’m pretty sure it was forcefully kiboshed behind the scenes.

4:24
Brad Johnson: The issue is usually that too many comments come flying in

4:24
Brad Johnson: During the season, I’m answering questions from 4:00 for 45 minutes

4:25
Brad Johnson: then I skip from 4:01 to 4:45 to finish out the chat

4:25
sleepy: nimmo or muncy in 2019?

4:25
Brad Johnson: Muncy

4:26
Brad Johnson: But I am the one who pointed out they’re clones

4:26
Brad Johnson: Muncy doesn’t have to deal with ShittyField

4:26
Shane: Cedric Mullins looks like the starting CF and leadoff man for the O’s next year, what kind of line do you see him posting in a full season?

4:26
Brad Johnson: He’s an early sleeper for me

4:27
Brad Johnson: I see potential for a breakout season with just as much potential for a disappoint Kevin Pillar-like batting line

4:27
Brad Johnson: 20/20 is a potential outcome

4:27
Brad Johnson: so is 8/8

4:27
Slurve: Any speculation on closers?  Set-up guys who could very well assume the closer role – for those who still count saves that is…

4:27
Brad Johnson: Let’s not worry about that just yet

4:27
Planet Dust: Was Bryant first rounder last year?

4:27
Brad Johnson: Yes, back end

4:28
Planet Dust: Did you guys know it’s pronounced KAI-bosh? That was one of countless words I’ve embarrassed myself with.  Several of the others are colors. Sepia, fuchsia, mauve.

4:28
Matt: The Athletic (which I’m otherwise a big fan of), has their chats in an unmoderated format, and even though things are pretty tame over there, I greatly prefer this. I can go to a message board or twitter if I want the opinion of randos.

4:28
Brad Johnson: True

4:29
Brad Johnson: I’m whipping together a Discord community for just that purpose!

4:29
Brad Johnson: Except I’m the leader. Ping me privately via an acceptable method of communication if you want in

4:29
Hard_At_Work: got in late here what is topic today?  open?

4:29
Brad Johnson: Macroeconomics of minor league stadium management, applications thereof

4:30
hscer: It’s hard enough to know who’s gonna close in late March, let alone now

4:30
Brad Johnson: Rotoworld has me produce a Saves and Steals column for the annual magazine

4:30
Brad Johnson: The thing goes out in January but the article is due in early December

4:30
Brad Johnson: That’s a shit show

4:30
Hard_At_Work: is there any way to access statcast data besides savant?

4:30
Brad Johnson: Befriend Tango/Mike?

4:31
Sox not Saux: Going along the same vein of your response on Altuve (i.e. last year was the time to sell him), is now the time to sell Blake Snell?  He obviously got some good fortune this year and the control/command still needs some work, but he still looks like a VERY good starter going forward given the stuff he possesses.

4:31
Brad Johnson: I think it would be foolish not to carefully listen to offers

4:31
Brad Johnson: My position on guys coming off a career year is I want somebody to feel like they MUST have him

4:32
Brad Johnson: If I can’t extract a rent, I’m usually not interested in selling

4:32
Brad Johnson: team needs notwithstanding

4:32
Brad Johnson: My other approach is to use such players to go after Mike Trout/similar

4:32
hscer: how does discord identify who’s talking? in case I need this info next March…

4:32
Brad Johnson: lel, I haven’t really tested the talking features much. We mostly use it as an open forum

4:33
Brad Johnson: It’s better Slack

4:33
Planet Dust: Do you think that the save category is going to stay viable over next say 5 years?

4:33
Brad Johnson: That! is a good question

4:33
Brad Johnson: I think it will. The way we manage the category will change though

4:34
Brad Johnson: There is merit to relievers pitching better when they know their roles

4:34
Brad Johnson: The best bullpens typically only have one or two roving late inning guys with the others filling explicit roles

4:34
Brad Johnson: And I think as players age, they probably benefit more from knowing when they’ll be called upon

4:34
Brad Johnson: That’s my personal hypothesis. Untested

4:35
Sox not Saux: What do you make of these Senzel to the OF rumors?  If he loses infield eligibility, that hurts him quite a bit (at least in my league).

4:35
Brad Johnson: On the one hand, yes, he kinda has to go to the OF if he’s going to be a Red

4:35
Brad Johnson: Suarez ain’t moving at this point. Nor should Peraza. And Gennett might go via FA, but that means at least half a season waiting for a trade

4:36
Brad Johnson: And Gennett might stay too.

4:36
Brad Johnson: So… it makes sense for him to try

4:36
JohnJacob Jingle…: In a 5×5 Roto Keep Forever League, who do you like the most for the forseeable future: Jose Ramirez or Bregman?

4:36
Brad Johnson: John Jaso Jingleheimerschmidt

4:36
Brad Johnson: You can’t go wrong, but you should pick Ramirez first in 2019.

4:37
Brad Johnson: By maybe a handful of spots

4:37
Brad Johnson: One of these seasons, Bregman isn’t going to stumble out of the gate

4:37
Brad Johnson: And he’ll push for MVP

4:37
Gabe: What are some of the best minor league stadiums to go to (talking overall fun experience).

4:37
Brad Johnson: Can’t say I’ve been to many. Durham is great though

4:37
Steve: You’ve mentioned some trade strategy stuff previously, like asking for a guy you’re not totally interested in only to indirectly get your actual target into a deal. Any other effective tricks?

4:37
Brad Johnson: That’s literally 40% of my offseason content.

4:38
Brad Johnson: Stay tuned

4:38
Eli: Not a question, but don’t forget QS as well. Viable option? I think not!

4:38
Brad Johnson: I will be writing a fervent post about ditching your QS leagues while you have the chance

4:39
Brad Johnson: It’s time to move back to Ws until we come up with a better stat

4:39
Brad Johnson: Something like a “quality outing” which includes pitching five innings of 3.50 or better ERA.

4:40
Brad Johnson: We can bicker over the standards. What we need is to uncouple the QS from the actual “start” concept. Otherwise, it’s super broken

4:40
Brad Johnson: It was already broken before Openers started happening

4:41
Brad Johnson: Only like 20 or 25 starters posted notable QS totals. In a 12 team league, that’s like 2 QS-able pitchers per team.

4:41
Brad Johnson: Ws at least include some gamesmanship with relievers

4:41
Brad Johnson: And Ryan Yarbrough

4:41
Planet Dust: I’ll be looking for the QS vs Ws post as that’s my candidate for my league’s big offseason fight this year.

4:41
Pat’s Bat: I’ve always thought Quality Starts was a silly fantasy stat.  Now with fewer and fewer pitchers lasting 6 innings, does QS have a future in fantasy?  Do we trend back to wins or is there something else that could replace both?

4:42
Pinkish: How many prospects do you like to roster in deep dynasty, 20 team league with 35 roster spots, during competitive seasons? I’ve been struggling to maintain the right balance of focusing every roster spot on winning while maintaining some prospect capital for the future/roster upgrades

4:42
Brad Johnson: Oh it’s a challenge. I literally used all of mine this season in 20 team, 45 roster

4:42
Brad Johnson: I have Lolo Sanchez and 44 MLBers

4:42
Brad Johnson: Oh, actually I cut Lolo in the last week for Nick Martini

4:42
Brad Johnson: I have no prospects left!

4:43
Brad Johnson: It’s ok, I have a dope roster of MLBers. I just can’t make any more trades to non-contenders :(

4:43
hscer: Will Baltimore “ever again” have a playable pitcher in standard leagues?

4:43
Brad Johnson: Magic 8 ball says “fuck no”

4:43
JS: Give some hope to a Twins fan. Other than a bad division, what do they have going for them?

4:44
Brad Johnson: A lot of talent

4:44
Brad Johnson: So much talent

4:44
Brad Johnson: They could easily win the division next season

4:44
Brad Johnson: Remember, basically EVERYTHING went wrong

4:44
Gary: All else equal, who do you want for the next 3 years in OBP, SLG, SBN league…Bregman (SS/#B this year, presume 3B next 2) or Giancarlo?

4:44
Brad Johnson: Bregman

4:44
Brad Johnson: EZ

4:44
Queens: What do you make of Jeff McNeil going forward? Any chance of becoming Daniel Murphy?

4:45
Brad Johnson: I know that’s a convenient comparison, but I don’t think that’s the transformation he needs

4:45
Brad Johnson: His GB/FB distribution is fine as is

4:45
Brad Johnson: What he needs to do is make more authoritative contact

4:45
Brad Johnson: I’m hopeful, but I’m not holding my breath

4:45
Brad Johnson: I wish he were a Red

4:46
Brad Johnson: or a Rockie

4:46
Brad Johnson: Jeff McNeil the Rockie is the soggiest dream of all

4:46
hscer: by the way how the hell did we only use Yarbrough for like 10 innings this year in a W league

4:46
Brad Johnson: Because I really undermanaged the hell out of my team

4:46
Brad Johnson: And y’all follow my lead when it comes to trendy trends

4:47
Brad Johnson: In all seriousness, I never had a handle on when the Rays were going to use which Follower

4:47
Pinkish: Think Tyler white has done enough to get himself in the Astros (or someone else’s) lineup next year?

4:47
Brad Johnson: Absolutely. He’s going to start barring something unforeseeable

4:47
Brad Johnson: And he’s right-handed Nimmo/Muncy

4:47
Brad Johnson: Turns out it’s a common profile all of a sudden

4:48
Pat’s Bat: Damn I thought that QS question was a good one

4:48
Brad Johnson: Twas, but you got beat to it

4:48
Planet Dust: The trouble we had with Wins (well one of them) was the extra value to the great-rate-stat relievers, non-closers.

4:48
Brad Johnson: Is that a problem?

4:49
Brad Johnson: I’ve been hyping those guys with back when Mike Adams and Sergio Romo were the studliest non-closers in the world

4:49
Brad Johnson: Shocking the Romo, Luke Gregerson, and David Robertson are still around

4:49
Brad Johnson: Used to be like 5 non-closers worth owning, and those were 3 of them

4:49
FAAB Four: Keep Jaime Barria for $4 in deep AL standard 5 x 5 keeper league?

4:49
Brad Johnson: Yea, probably

4:49
Shane: What site’s park factors do you use? Are there reliable PFs for handedness?

4:50
Brad Johnson: Check out FanGraphs Guts! (google it, I’m lazy)

4:50
Pat’s Bat: What about saves and steals as categories?  They have much greater importance in fantasy than real baseball. Is there a solution to chasing mediocre one category saves and steals guys halfway through the season?  That’s always been my least favorite part of 5×5.  Maybe more categories?

4:50
Brad Johnson: It sounds like what you want is a points league

4:50
Brad Johnson: There is a strong philosophical reason to have diverse stats tracked for 5×5 roto

4:51
Brad Johnson: the less the categories correlate, the more important your personal management decisions become

4:51
Brad Johnson: There’s no point having a 5×5 league that accurately tracks a player’s real world value

4:51
Brad Johnson: Incidentally, that’s why I love batting average for fantasy but don’t even look at it for real world discussions

4:52
Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: Where would you draft Acuña and Vlad in a brand new dynsasty league?

4:52
Brad Johnson: Trout, Betts, Acuna, Soto, Vlad, Bregman, Ramirez are the top 7 in some combination. I am unsure specifically.

4:53
Brad Johnson: I don’t think there is a “wrong” answer. Acuna is 1-3. Vlad is somewhere 4-7 imo.

4:53
Vegetarian Chili Davis: Target Rays “bulk” guys like Chirinos and Yarbrough in AL keeper roto leagues (W,K, ERA, WHIP, SV)?

4:53
Brad Johnson: As long as you aren’t paying a lot

4:54
Brad Johnson: Now is the time to do it too

4:54
Brad Johnson: Wait until everybody realizes how many wins Yarbrough got

4:54
Brad Johnson: Tuck this tactic away from draft day in auction leagues – early nominate Followers like Yarbrough

4:55
Brad Johnson: Watch opponents piss away $6

4:55
Brad Johnson: Laugh maniacally

4:55
Sox not Saux: For the guy who asked about minor league parks, I haven’t been to a ton, but Charlotte and Reading are both great and worth a stop if you’re in either of those areas.

4:55
Deno: I too traded Mookie for Altuve.  Le sigh.

4:55
Brad Johnson: *passes the hooch*

4:56
Planet Dust: For me it’s less about the categories mirroring their true value in real baseball, more about what they force you to do strategy-wise.

4:56
Brad Johnson: There are so many variations of fantasy baseball, all of which coax different strategic processes

4:56
Brad Johnson: I suggest finding those that fit your strengths and/or are the most fun for you

4:57
Brad Johnson: Don’t play 5×5 just because it’s the standard

4:57
Brad Johnson: I avoid redrafts because I like trades (they basically don’t happen in industry redrafts)

4:58
Brad Johnson: And I avoid weekly because I’m a high effort guy. I go absolutely mad when Trevor Story’s elbow goes limp on Monday in week 25 right after lineups set

4:58
Brad Johnson: I want to try to ride some scrub SS to victory

4:58
Trader Bob: Have to disagree on QS. My league has wins, saves, holds–and QS, which gives a category to some (but not all) starters who are remarkable in a way that every real team needs a little bit of, just like, closers and elite set-up guys as vs ordinary relievers. Meanwhile everyone earns wins …

4:59
Brad Johnson: I’ll say this, QS can be viable in a sufficiently small league

4:59
Brad Johnson: I tend to play 12 team and larger where is just doesn’t work

4:59
hscer: why OPS leagues then, not that I mind my life being easier

5:00
Brad Johnson: If you’re referring to our league having OPS, I made it back before I realized AVG was good because it wasn’t correlated with HR

5:00
Brad Johnson: And I never changed it

5:00
Matt: Isn’t Jeff McNeil the Rockie basically just DJ LeMahieu? Empty-average guy who doesn’t strike out very much and plays average-ish defense at 2b.

5:00
Brad Johnson: DJLM is a deeply weird hitter

5:01
Brad Johnson: So while sort of true, McNeil is a much less unusual talent. He’s an extremely balanced spray hitter

5:01
Brad Johnson: DJLM is a oppo-field machine with the body of a 35 HR hitter

5:01
Brad Johnson: I’m still waiting for him to realize he can be Matt Carpenter

5:01
Trader Bob: Do you see the Indians resigning Brantley despite his age and defensive decline? If not, who’d want him? Progressive field really boosts left handed bats, no? Could he be this years’ Moustakas / Cobb ?

5:02
Brad Johnson: I think it’s very possible he’s re-signed

5:02
Brad Johnson: The market has adjusted such that players of his ilk and age will probably go in with very humble demands

5:02
Brad Johnson: Like 2-years, $12MM

5:03
Brad Johnson: At that point, we as fantasy players should be hoping for the Indians, Reds, White Sox, Phillies, etc.

5:03
Brad Johnson: Any friendly park basically

5:03
Brad Johnson: Not that any of those are great fits

5:03
Brad Johnson: Can’t rule ’em out

5:03
Deno: Is Mondesi going to be worth the hype?  Is now a perfect sell high moment if you have him stashed in dynasty?

5:03
Brad Johnson: Almost

5:03
Brad Johnson: This offseason, but ya gotta wait for someone like Jeff Sullivan to rant about how special he is

5:04
Brad Johnson: btw, no matter what anybody says, the comp is not Francisco Lindor.

5:04
Brad Johnson: That’s paywalled. I put forth his actual comp

5:04
Brad Johnson: 100% confidence

5:04
Neal: I think I just love fantasy baseball too much. This time of the year where everyone chills out until the post season is over drives me nuts.

5:05
Brad Johnson: While I’m the topic of shameless self promotion, if y’all help me add more patrons, I’ll be starting up monthly unique fantasy games with $50 cash money prizes

5:06
Brad Johnson: I’m really hoping we can get some buzz buzzing and get this off the ground by December

5:06
Neal: Do we have an answer to why Jose Ramirez had such a low BABIP? It seems too low to just be bad luck, especially for a hitter so elite.

5:07
Brad Johnson: Yes! This is another article I wrote on my Patreon. Will take me a moment to find it, it’s buried

5:07
Brad Johnson: ok, bear with me, google is not cooperating. Gonna have to do this manually

5:09
Brad Johnson: Here we go

5:09
Brad Johnson: Hiding on May 10 – https://www.patreon.com/posts/18724672

5:09
Brad Johnson: Basically, BABIP regression for Ramirez should be expected to include fewer HR

5:09
Neal: You’re a big Charlie Morton guy. I just won my Dynasty League and he was on the staff as my #4. Now has got to be the time to cash him in for some younger talent, right?

5:10
Brad Johnson: Yes, if you even can. Might be riding him into the ground due to the retirement rumors

5:10
Vegetarian Chili Davis: Will Miguel Sano be a sleeper next year?

5:10
Brad Johnson: Not if he’s jailed for running over a cop

5:10
Brad Johnson: Seriously, he ran over a cop

5:10
Brad Johnson: Sounds like he’ll get away with just paying restitution

5:11
Reardon: In a H2H, we’ve avoiding QS/W by going with IP, with some streaming coming as a result. Most of the league finds streaming distasteful – thoughts on rule changes to discourage the practice?

5:12
Brad Johnson: Sounds like a good topic for me to explore later. I need to go through this chat and note all the topics I said I’d cover

5:12
Brad Johnson: But in short, yes, there are ways to discourage streaming without being too restrictive

5:13
Brad Johnson: The best is to simply offset IP with stats like ERA and WHIP

5:13
Brad Johnson: Most rate stats inherently disfavor streaming

5:13
Brad Johnson: Streaming hasn’t been a clever play in at least half a decade, I see more people lose with it than win (me included, see my home league)

5:14
Brad Johnson: Seriously, check out what happened when I streamed in the last week

5:14
Open up and say “Aardsma”: Keep or sell David Price for $20 in 12-team only (standard 5 x 5)?

5:14
Brad Johnson: That’s a sell or cut to me

5:14
Brad Johnson: Because I doubt you get anything back

5:15
Brad Johnson: Unless somebody is disgusted with Joey Votto or something and you’re willing to bet on a bounce

5:15
Reardon: Going back to Wander Franco, what’s his path to playing time? Does he get slowed way down being a Ray?

5:15
Brad Johnson: Probably

5:15
Brad Johnson: The Rays are so deliberate

5:15
hscer: Is The Athletic sustainable?

5:15
hscer: Just Sa No

5:15
Brad Johnson: I think they might make it in some form

5:15
Brad Johnson: Here’s what I expect to happen

5:16
Brad Johnson: They’re absolutely right about the business model

5:16
Brad Johnson: In AdBlock world, you need to design your site around no ads

5:16
Brad Johnson: Which basically means a subscription or pay-to-play features

5:17
Brad Johnson: I’m experiencing my own learning experience with Patreon. People aren’t really that keen to pay money to read articles because there are so many free substitutes. So I’m trying to scale up the pay-to-play side with reader leagues, discord, unique fantasy games, swag, etc.

5:18
Brad Johnson: The Athletic is taking the other approach. If they can buy enough of the quality content in sports news, they can almost force some people to pay them

5:18
Brad Johnson: And it convinces their rivals to follow a similar model

5:19
Brad Johnson: Which reduces the supply of free content to the point where people maybe actually will pay

5:19
Brad Johnson: But…

5:19
Brad Johnson: Here’s the wrinkle. I foresee a squeeze in the future when The Athletic’s largesse turns into profit seeking

5:20
Brad Johnson: They’re paying too many writers too much money.

5:20
Brad Johnson: So, having killed some of the places their writers would otherwise write, they’re either going to fix wages or start cutting them

5:21
Brad Johnson: They’re not FanGraphs. They don’t have a benevolent Dark Overlord.

5:21
Brad Johnson: They’re profit seekers.

5:21
Brad Johnson: They’ll maximize their subscriber base and then they’ll minimize their costs once they decide new subscribers are too expensive to purchase

5:21
Open up and say “Aardsma”: The Athletic will eventually go the newspaper staffing model in that the top clicked writers remain on the payroll, but freelancers end up covering much of the ground.

5:21
hscer: (to be clear “Just Sa No” was a reference to the Sano sleeper question, not a typographically errant rejection of the Athletic concept)

5:22
Brad Johnson: (that was not clear, thanks)

5:22
Reardon: Are Athletic writers paid on a commission for the number of subs they get?

5:22
Brad Johnson: No

5:22
Matt: I will say that The Athletic is most worth it if you’re a hockey fan. There is no Frangraphs for hockey, and every national and local publication has scaled their hockey coverage way back (which might make sense as a business decision, but sucks as a fan). The Athletic has filled that void and then some. The baseball/basketball/football coverage is a bonus. I still like reading stuff by Eno, too.

5:23
Neal: Man, labrum injuries are scary. I learned my lesson with Michael Brantley. But if you can sit on him for a year, Jesse Winker was looking pretty studly before he went down. What are your thoughts?

5:23
Brad Johnson: I’m so sad about his injury.

5:23
Brad Johnson: I’m also worried about the recovery time, but he was about half a month from really reaching critical mass with the fantasy mainstream

5:24
Brad Johnson: so if you own him in a keeper and the opportunity cost isn’t too high, you’re probably stuck hoping he rebounds cleanly

5:24
Galileo: Is Kyle Tucker going to have a spot out of spring training next year, or will he get yoyo-ed up and down?

5:24
Brad Johnson: I think he’ll have a chance to earn a spot with Tony Kemp taking it if Tucker doesn’t own Spring Training

5:24
Brad Johnson: Frankly, Kemp not starting is one of the great injustices of the 2018 season

5:25
Brad Johnson: He’s a top 40? outfielder

5:25
Brad Johnson: Maybe 50?

5:25
Brad Johnson: He’s damned good

5:25
Brad Johnson: (for our purposes, not quite that exceptional in reality)

5:25
StewZilla: Mondesi worth $11 as a 4-5 year contract in my auction league?  And what to make of Voit and Mallex for next year?

5:26
Brad Johnson: Yes.

5:26
Brad Johnson: Sure, he might completely zero out on you, but $11 is well worth that risk when $30-$40 upside is in play.

5:26
Brad Johnson: There’s a lot to be scared about in his profile

5:27
Brad Johnson: I’m buying Voit and Mallex too

5:27
Open up and say “Aardsma”: I mean is there enough offseason interest to pay a permanent beat writer for the Brewers, Royals, Padres, etc.?

5:27
Brad Johnson: I couldn’t say tbh

5:27
Reardon: Mondesi feels so much like Buxton – is Buxton worth $11 on the hope of his $30-$40 upside?

5:27
Brad Johnson: Entering this season, I would have said absolutely yes

5:28
Brad Johnson: I still think the answer is maybe yes.

5:28
Brad Johnson: But you shouldn’t have to pay that much now

5:28
Brad Johnson: Since the Twins didn’t even give him a Sept call up to spur our interest

5:28
Brad Johnson: It’s time to bug out folks

5:28
Brad Johnson: Thanks for playing

5:28
Brad Johnson: This was a good one

5:28
TheLastWord: What do I make of guys like Voit and O’Hearn?  Worth keeping in a dynasty at $1 plus normal inflation?

5:29
Brad Johnson: I don’t know. What’s normal inflation?

5:29
Brad Johnson: I’d keep ’em for $5 or less probably

5:29
Brandon: When choosing keepers to you tend to favor a philosophy of A) keeping the most talented players, regardless or cost B) keeping players with the best keeper ‘value’ or C) roster construction based on position strength/weakness vs what would be available in the draft?

5:29
Brad Johnson: Mix of A and B. Big believer in rostering as many stars as possible in 12 team mixed. As leagues get deeper, a more balanced approach gains value.



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