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Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 12/5/2017

Here’s today’s chat transcript which includes a wide range of topics and a lot of focus on dynasty strategy.

2:48

Brad Johnson: Hi folks, I’m going to start a little early and work through the queue. Once it’s 3:00, I’ll skip ahead to the present

2:48

Brad Johnson: Put another way, you should probably hold your questions until 3:00

2:48

Brad Johnson: And here’s a great way to kick things off…

2:48

Geebs: What the hell are you?

2:48

Geebs: I meant that in the nicest way possible

2:50

Brad Johnson: Visual evidence suggests I am a human male of indeterminate age

2:50

Brad Johnson: As to who I am, I still get asked this question despite writing over 1,500 articles for FanGraphs and its subsidiaries.

2:51

Mike Milligan: Head to head forever keeper points league. Can keep 2 of Olsen, EE, D.Santana. Who gets cut ? Thanks

2:52

Brad Johnson: I’ll say it depends on your plans for 2018. If you’d rather focus long term, then EE will probably fall off a cliff in the next couple seasons. If you think you should win this year, probably bet on Olson regression.

2:52

Brian: In my dynasty league, I traded 1 year of Bryce Harper and 1 year of Alex Wood (and forfeited their compensation if i lost them to free agency) for the right to draft Ohtani and control him for 6 years.  Am I crazy?

2:52

Brad Johnson: Crazy? No. I do think you overpaid, but there’s plenty of room for profit.

2:53

Brad: Thoughts on Keon Broxton?  I am worried about PT, but tools are great for fantasy

2:54

Brad Johnson: He’s fun for fantasy, tends to perform in streaks so you can try to buy him off waivers whenever he shows signs of life

2:54

Brad Johnson: assuming it’s standard 12-team mixed

2:54

Bobopedia: in a dynasty league I have the option to bid on Charlie Blackmon for a 5 year deal. How well do you think he ages? Can he keep staying in the 10-15 SB range and be a top 30 hitter through his age 36 season?

2:55

Brad Johnson: Probably not. That’s not a knock against Blackmon. In recent seasons, there are very few hitters over 35 with positive production

2:55

Brad Johnson: I do think he’ll remain very productive the next couple years. Could always plan to trade him for a haul after 2018.

2:56

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: A.J. Preller signs a three-year extension with the Padres. Thoughts?

2:56

Brad Johnson: Ray submitted 4 questions in a row, I’m picking this one because it’s the most interesting to me

2:56

Brad Johnson: In the baseball world, there’s an inclination to discard anybody who makes a mistake. Nobody can argue that Preller didn’t make a whole heap of mistakes.

2:57

Brad Johnson: That said, I like that San Diego is going against the grain and letting him continue to learn on the job. All reports suggest he’s one of the hardest working non-players in the game

2:57

Dingus: Hey Brad! Keeper question for ya — in my 10-tm H2H 6×6 (OPS/QS), we have 6 keepers, keep forever. I’ve got Trout, Kershaw, JoRam, Donaldson, and Votto for sure; do I keep deGrom or Hoskins as my 6th? Thanks!

2:58

Brad Johnson: Hoskins is my vote. Can’t go wrong though

2:58

Joe: Moncada a legit keeper in a 12 team points for $6? Trying to decide between him and Sano ($29).

2:58

Brad Johnson: Very legit. Kind of like Keon Broxton with guaranteed playing time

2:58

Ryan: In a 10-teamer is Albies and Happ enough to cover 2B?

2:59

Brad Johnson: Yes

2:59

Post Malone: Who the heck are you?

2:59

Brad Johnson: Another one of these :)

2:59

Brad Johnson: I got halfway through the queue, time to warp forward

3:00

Sterling Malory Chris Archer: Where do I find ottoneu leagues that I can take over an abandoned team?

3:00

Brad Johnson: Great question

3:00

Brad Johnson: Here is the page – https://ottoneu.fangraphs.com/claimteams

3:00

Brad Johnson: Here is a user guide of sorts for how to use it – http://community.ottoneu.com/t/available-and-expired-teams-and-league-…

3:01

Brad Johnson: Be sure you’re subbing into an active league!

3:01

Andy: Thanks for chatting Brad.  Would you target Amed Rosario or Scott Kingery as a MI keeper for the next 3 years?

3:02

Brad Johnson: I’m inclined to vote Rosario. His debut was chillingly bad, but the physical tools are still impressive. I think Kingery is getting a bit overhyped for hitting well in a friendly environment. I don’t see why the Phillies would do anything with Cesar Hernandez, he’s a consistent top 10 2B.

3:03

Sterling Malory Chris Archer: In standard 5×5’s, is there any particular types of players that are optimal?

3:03

Brad Johnson: Well… it’s always great to get guys who can steal and hit home runs. You have to average about 25 HR per roster spot to be competitive. That includes your 1-2 catchers.

3:04

Brad Johnson: So it’s very hard to roster a SB-only guy and still compete for HR.

3:04

Brad Johnson: That’s pretty obvious advice though. I basically just said you should draft Trout or Goldy. Or find Pham on waivers.

3:04

Bob Villar: Have you heard any reports on Michael Fulmer’s wherewithal this offseason?

3:05

Brad Johnson: I get this question about wherewithal every time I chat.

3:05

MP: Hey Brad,

3:05

Brad Johnson: Hey

3:05

MP: Hey Brad.  I read your rule change article and I am hoping you could help with mine. 13 team keeper auction with auction prices factored into a 275 active salary cap with a 15 man bench. Has taken me forever to incorporate FAABs into the league.  With all the DL trips and stuff I feel like it is super important.  What is the best way to do FAABs in a salary cap league?

3:06

Brad Johnson: I tend to treat them as a separate budget – kind of like international spending. That would mean undrafted players cost the minimum to keep

3:06

Brad Johnson: I think it’s the simplest solution

3:07

Brad Johnson: the obvious alternative is to try to make the FAAB cost part of the overall budget

3:07

Brad Johnson: i.e. you can spend $275 on draft day and get $75 to use during the season, have to stay under $300 overall

3:08

Brad Johnson: ottoneu uses a similar approach

3:08

Brad Johnson: It includes loans to help facilitate trading

3:08

Brad Johnson: Honestly, I recommend porting the league to ottoneu if that’s what you want to do. It’s a nightmare to manage in Yahoo or other sites.

3:09

Nick: My Paxton for his Albies? Am I getting enough back for The Big Maple? Would adding Osuna or Snell bring back the kind of value I should be looking for?

3:09

Brad Johnson: Assuming it’s a long term keeper, that smells fine to me. Albies looked pretty incredible.

3:09

Brad Johnson: I could see him turning into a poor man’s Lindor real soon

3:09

Smashed McDouble: Nola or McCullers in a keeper league, where next year’s performance and future performance are equally weighted?

3:11

Brad Johnson: Which do I prefer? I’d bet on Nola. McCullers curveball heavy approach is probably going to eventually land in the bullpen in a multi-inning role. Nola has a more classic workhorse profile so he could pile up the wins once the Phillies buy a few players.

3:11

Brad Johnson: Wins are becoming quite difficult to plan…

3:11

Bob Villar: Ian Snell or Luis Castillo in a dynasty?

3:12

Brad Johnson: Give me Castillo. Ian Snell was terrible. Doubt he rebounds.

3:12

Brad Johnson: As for Blake Snell, he’s very interesting. Both guys will be overpriced on draft day due to (correctly) perceived breakout potential.

3:13

JD15: In your opinion, what is the best way to deal with a team that has unreasonable valuations on their own players, but has players that you want to trade for?

3:13

Brad Johnson: Keep a line of communication with them, but don’t actually talk trade – just indicate a willingness to do so

3:13

Brad Johnson: either they’re the checked out kind of owner and it would be a waste of time to engage, or they’ll come to you with a reasonable offer once they need to make a move

3:14

Brad Johnson: unreasonable valuations are usually a sign of comfort with the roster

3:14

Brad Johnson: When I have a complete unit, I ask way too much for my players

3:14

Jack: Pick 2: Schoop for 11, Mazara for 10, Sonny Gray for 6, Sano for $25.

3:15

Brad Johnson: Definitely Schoop. I want to say… uh…

3:16

Brad Johnson: None of those prices look that great to me. If you can do something fun with $19 of auction budget, go Gray. Otherwise, just “overpay” for the best of the trio

3:16

Wadz: Expectations for Trea Turners 2018?

3:16

Brad Johnson: 10-15 HR, .280 AVG, .330 OBP, 100+ runs, 40 RBI, 45 SB

3:17

Brad Johnson: Upside for a 20/60 type season

3:17

Matt: Miles Mikolas….worthy flier?

3:17

Brad Johnson: For sure

3:17

Brad Johnson: Smells like he could at least pull a Colby Lewis

3:17

Brad Johnson: if not more

3:17

Shuck Bowalter: Any chance Bedrosian closes next year?

3:17

Brad Johnson: Definitely a chance

3:18

Brad Johnson: But the Angels keep pushing him out of the role so don’t count on it

3:18

Shuck Bowalter: Is LeMahieu a top 5 2b?

3:18

Brad Johnson: I’m convinced LeMahieu is nearly unrosterable

3:19

Brad Johnson: The issue is that you have no margin for error at other positions for power or speed.

3:19

Brad Johnson: He’s basically the Joe Mauer of 2B

3:20

Brad Johnson: No power, no speed, tons of AVG and OBP, few RBI, big run total

3:20

Brad Johnson: It’s really hard to build a successful roster around that as more than a frequently used bench guy

3:20

Brad Johnson: obviously, the deeper the league, the easier he is to use

3:21

Brad Johnson: But, at least for me, if a guy is going to hit fewer than 10 HR, then I need him to steal 20+ bases

3:21

Sterling Malory Chris Archer: What’s a better stat for fantasy purposes, wins or quality starts?

3:21

Brad Johnson: They’re both a nightmare in this era.

3:22

Brad Johnson: Lots of pitchers like McCullers routinely don’t last 6 innings.

3:22

Brad Johnson: So they lower their chances for a win and can’t earn a QS

3:23

Brad Johnson: Right now, I prefer wins because they’re a little easier to randomly acquire. Can also closely manage relievers for a little help, snagging a Chris Devenski type when a short appearance guy like Peacock is on the bump (just one example)

3:23

Matt: Aaron Altherr and Odubel Herrera – good $1-4 OF depth targets, or worthy starters $6 starters?

3:23

Brad Johnson: I look at Altherr as a depth guy. I do think the Phillies would like to upgrade on him in the long run

3:23

Brad Johnson: He should play plenty next year though

3:24

Brad Johnson: Herrera is a legit starter in the majors, but he has a bit of the same problem as DJLM

3:24

Matt: Jose Quintana is a Top ______ SP next season.

3:24

Brad Johnson: 15?

3:24

KS: $36 Lindor or $18 Santana which would you rather have?

3:24

Brad Johnson: Lindor

3:25

Brad Johnson: Regardless of which Santana that is

3:25

Matt: Brandon Woodruff going to be a viable option next season?

3:25

Brad Johnson: I’d look at him as a $1 flier to start

3:25

Brad Johnson: probably be able to stream him some

3:25

Brad Johnson: biggest issue for me is his home park; it’s very unforgiving’

3:25

Nelson: Re: DJ Lem. but dont high avg guys have a little extra juice now since leaguewide avg is down?

3:26

Shuck Bowalter: This is why context is important – LeMahieu question was for an Otto FGPTS league.

3:26

Brad Johnson: Well yea, LeMahieu is a much better asset in a points format

3:27

Brad Johnson: As for his batting average, the issue is that it’s the least important category to manage.

3:27

Timmy’s Hips: When do ottoneu singups tend to heat up? Thinking of joining or starting a league and just want to know when the moment is right

3:27

Brad Johnson: I honestly don’t know

3:29

Brad Johnson: And just a general announcement – if you’re writing articles on another site, I’m not going to promote them for you. I suspect that would be frowned upon by my overlords. Happy to link to community articles though.

3:29

MadBum’s dirtbike: Haven’t really looked closely, but how are various fantasy leagues handling Ohtani? Is he simply going to have P and DH eligibility and you can put him in either spot?

3:29

Brad Johnson: That’s how ottoneu will handle it. I think the other sites will arrive at the same process. Initially there was talk of making him two players, but that’s ridiculous

3:29

Nelson: If Austin Barnes gets 350-400 ABs, is he a top 10 Catcher?

3:30

Brad Johnson: Barnes was basically a top 10 catcher last year

3:30

Brad Johnson: So yea, probably

3:30

Bruce: Where do you think Hosmer lands? Im a new owner hoping its not SD

3:30

Brad Johnson: It won’t be San Diego

3:30

Brad Johnson: At least, I’m willing to bet money it’s not. Can’t actually rule it out.

3:31

Brad Johnson: I’ll say he returns to KC

3:31

Brad Johnson: It may depend on who lands JDM

3:32

Brad Johnson: I do think there’s a very real chance he’ll be unsigned in March while teams wait for his price to fall. That’s why I think KC is a favorite. They can step in sooner with a safety net deal

3:32

Sterling Malory Chris Archer: Will 2016 Wil Myers show up ever again?

3:32

Brad Johnson: Look again.

3:33

Brad Johnson: That 2017 line is the same as 2018

3:33

Brad Johnson: granted, it hurts than his R and RBI declined so sharply, but that’s mostly not his fault

3:33

Al Gone Quinn: Are you interested in Dahl as a sleeper this year?

3:34

Brad Johnson: I LOVE post hype guys.

3:34

Brad Johnson: I mostly play dynasties and deep keeper leagues. My #1 strategy is to form a complete roster in the offseason and only purchase $1 players in the draft. Specifically targeting players who slip through the cracks like Dahl.

3:35

Brad Johnson: Then when a couple of them spike, I send them to a rebuilding team for a star.

3:35

Matt: Does LoCain have a potential to go somewhere that might help to boost his production?

3:36

Brad Johnson: Not really. KC is a friendly park for offense; it just suppresses HR

3:36

Brad Johnson: his power isn’t such that he’s likely to add many moving to a smaller yard. And he’ll lose hits and SB opportunities in the exchange

3:36

Ryan: How much value does Chris Archer gain if he’s traded to the NL?

3:37

Brad Johnson: Better question, how much value does Chris Archer gain if he’s traded to a team that wins his starts

3:37

Brad Johnson: the answer is a TON

3:37

Henry: Stephen Piscotty a solid bounceback candidate?

3:37

Brad Johnson: Another great posthype guy

3:37

Brad Johnson: I have him for $8 in FG Staff 2 and I can’t give him away

3:38

Brad Johnson: I feel like that’s a very friendly price. He was viewed as a safe $15 to $20 guy heading into 2017

3:38

Brad Johnson: I don’t see any reason to change those expectations

3:38

Matt: At this point, Jimmy Nelson should be dropped, right? Have him at $7 in dynasty ($4 is risk-free salary).

3:39

Brad Johnson: Depends on the flavor of dynasty

3:39

Brad Johnson: I’d keep him in mine and treat him as a prospect

3:39

Brad Johnson: I’m going to wander back to the queue for a bit, I’ll return to real time at 3:50

3:40

Busted Pinata: Do you think Chris Owings can approach the success he showed early last season or was that a best case scenario?

3:40

Brad Johnson: Part of it depends on if the DBacks install that humidor. He derives a lot of his value by hitting ground balls on a super fast infield

3:41

Brad Johnson: When I look at his overall performance, I don’t really see a meaningful change from past seasons

3:41

Brad Johnson: I think he’s a fun stream for 12 team leagues and little more

3:41

JD15: How does the Mikolas signing affect Alex Reyes’s value this season?

3:41

Brad Johnson: It doesn’t.

3:42

Brad Johnson: Reyes is going to pitch when he’s ready, and he’s going to be limited

3:42

Cost Averse GM: I have the option to keep both Happ and W Contreras, does keeping 2 players from the same team concern you?

3:42

Brad Johnson: Not at all. Prioritize talent.

3:42

Busted Pinata: Does last season go down as the best fantasy season of Thames’s career?

3:42

Brad Johnson: Very likely

3:43

Brad Johnson: That April was three-quarters of his value

3:43

Slamboni: 10 tm stan roto with $260 draft budget, which 3 of the following should I keep? Realmuto $7, Votto $25, Blackmon $30, Hoskins $10, Acuna $4, Kluber $26, Verlander $15, Nola $6

3:44

Brad Johnson: I’m a big believer in hoarding stars. So start with Blackmon and Votto. Probably round it out with Kluber or take a stab at Acuna becoming a monster (+$22 to spend elsewhere).

3:44

Tiss: If Ohtani is a bust…healthy, but not as good as expected, what does that look like as an SP in 2018?  Samardzija?  Jon Gray?  Ubaldo?

3:44

Brad Johnson: I want to say Michael Pineda. He’ll look like he should be good, but the fastball will play way down. This is a very real risk by the way

3:45

KS: What are some hints for someone trying Ottoneu for the first time. I just took over a team with a ton of prospects (Acuna, Gleyber, Puk, Buehler, Senzel….)

3:46

Brad Johnson: Well, for one, don’t add more prospects. Focus on acquiring star players now. Prospects really tend to drag down a roster in ottoneu because they chew up budget and roster space

3:46

Brad Johnson: and frequently, they require multiple years to consistently perform above average

3:46

Brad Johnson: But as long as a couple of those guys spike, you’ll come out ahead on value.

3:46

Brad Johnson: Another thing, I usually try to address catcher and reliever last

3:47

Brad Johnson: it’s relatively easy to find budget production for the bullpen

3:47

Brad Johnson: and since you can use two catchers but only need 162 games played, you can try to cobble together a platoon of Tyler Flowers + something (Barnes was a good one last year)

3:48

Post Malone: Seriously, who are you? What’s your background? I’ve never seen you on here.

3:49

Desperate, confused Marlins fan: How late are you taking Jake Arrieta next year?

3:49

Brad Johnson: I haven’t really settled in to that yet. Would like to see where he lands. He’s somewhere in that Jon Lester – Masahiro Tanaka range

3:49

Brad Johnson: Cole Hamels

3:50

Brad Johnson: Basically, he’s one of those vets who has a long standing track record but is kind of blah now

3:50

Tom: I just took over an Ottoneu team with a $2 Acuna. What kind of return should I be shooting for(tier of player)? I’ve gotten a ton of offers and none of them seem to be enough but maybe I’m aiming too high.

3:50

Brad Johnson: I have him in 2 of my 3 ottoneu leagues. Let me dig up my asks

3:50

Brad Johnson: They’re funny

3:52

Brad Johnson: Asked Jose Ramirez, Chris Taylor, Rhys Hoskins, and Felipe Rivero – $34 combined

3:52

Brad Johnson: Asked Kershaw, Blackmon, Barnes, and Pham in another – combined $106

3:53

Brad Johnson: Obviously those aren’t serious asks

3:53

Brad Johnson: I’m indicating that you’ll need to go way outside of your comfort zone if you want him

3:53

Brad Johnson: He cost Goldy+Kluber in a 20 team, keep-forever dynasty

3:54

Confused Man: Do the Nats hate Wilmer Difo? Seems like he is eternally their 6th INF and 5th OF now, but I feel like there’s some Eduardo Nunez there

3:54

Brad Johnson: The Nats just happen to have a competitive team. There’s no reason to make room for him on that roster, it’ll hurt their advantage

3:54

Brad Johnson: He’s an interesting player

3:54

Rollie’s Mustache: My Greg Holland for his David Dahl. Good pickup for me on a declining asset or do you think I could do better?

3:54

Brad Johnson: Smells pretty good to me

3:55

Brad Johnson: Lot of risk on both sides, I always prefer to gamble on hitters

3:55

Slamboni: Thoughts on Domingo Santana next year? Improvement from 2017, regression or more of the same?

3:55

Brad Johnson: It’s always smartest to bet on modest regression

3:55

Brad Johnson: The good news is that 25 HR, 10 SB, and a high BABIP/AVG/OBP is still a valuable profile

3:56

Kyle: Would you trade Harper for Machado and Acuna in a dynasty league?

3:56

Brad Johnson: I would

3:56

Brad Johnson: Context matters, of course

3:56

Matt: I have Goldy at $56 in a dynasty (just doubled, so increase $2 each of next 3 years). Last year, Miggy went for $59 (to me) at auction as one of two capable hitters (the other being Stanton…we know who lost that decision…). I feel Goldy is right around market value, but there’s also Scherzer, Darvish, Strasburg, Tanaka available. I want to keep Goldy, but could really use some cap space. How do you balance the risk in potentially paying more at auction to try to pay less? Do you think it’s a smart gamble?

3:57

Brad Johnson: I would hold onto Goldy. His stolen bases out of the first base position combined with his other stats make him one of the easiest players to manage around

3:57

Brad Johnson: You’ll need to dig deep for pitching, it sounds like, but I think there will be opportunities for cheap production

3:58

Brad Johnson: With all the data available to players, I think we can count on more Charlie Mortons and Zack Godleys than in past years

3:58

Catchers: Would San Diego be a good thing or a bad thing for Ohtani’s fantasy value in a world where Ohtani is a SP/OF? You get his hitting but not his pitching when you play him at OF, and you get his pitching but not his hitting when you play him at SP.

3:59

Brad Johnson: A small drain on his value compared to the LA clubs or Seattle

3:59

Bruce: I have a 16$ Andrew miller in Otto 5×5. I dont want him at that price.  Do I trade him for whatever I can get even if its just an OK prospect? Or keep him and try to trade once the season begins? Do you think I could get a decent haul?

3:59

Brad Johnson: I think you should be able to find a pretty useful piece for him. You may want to use him to sweeten the pot in a bigger swap

4:00

Brad Johnson: If you hang onto him until the regular season, you’ll wind up wanting to keep him

4:00

Brad Johnson: the owners who will be most interest in a Miller are exactly the same owners you don’t want to give him to

4:00

Desperate, confused Marlins fan: Re: I kind of still think Tanaka has some left whereas Arrieta, Hamels and Lester are in the backend of their careers. What say you?

4:01

Brad Johnson: They’re all the same asset class to me. Tanaka is perhaps better but less healthy

4:01

Snake the Jake: If a team were to implement a 6 man rotation, would that decrease the value of the guys in that rotation? Ex: Rangers saying they might if they got Ohtani, wouldn’t that make Hamels near unownable?

4:01

Brad Johnson: I don’t think so, especially since the premier guys like Hamels would almost certainly go every 5th day

4:01

Brad Johnson: remember, they’re counting Mike Minor and Matt Bush as starters right now

4:02

Brad Johnson: They probably need them to stick around 100 to 120 innings to survive the season which means Hamels needs to eat his usual 200+

4:02

Bruce: Wilmer Difo and Michael Martinez should switch places and see if anyone notices

4:02

Brad Johnson: I think we’d notice, the Indians totally have an active role for Difo

4:02

Nelson: Would you rather have Billy Hamilton over Yu?

4:03

Brad Johnson: That’s extremely situational

4:03

Brad Johnson: Hamilton is somebody I try to put on my bench

4:03

Brad Johnson: but he’s incredibly valuable in that role

4:03

Desperate, confused Marlins fan: Worth drafting McMahon or is he trapped behind Desmond?

4:03

Brad Johnson: Being trapped behind Desmond is like being crushed by a feather

4:04

Brad Johnson: Go ahead with a late flier – especially in a keeper scenario

4:04

Floyd: Do you have thoughts on Mitch Keller, Walker Buehler & Fernando Tatis Jr?

4:04

Brad Johnson: Not specifically. They’re interesting and upsidey. Still need more development

4:04

Matt: What’s your take on Jose Ramirez next year? I’m having a tough time figuring out if he’s simply a good player who had an amazing year or if he’s a star who can repeat his 2017 numbers.

4:05

Brad Johnson: I’m a big fan of his. I called his breakout a year too soon then sold off my shares like a fool

4:05

Brad Johnson: I expect him to turn in more monster seasons in the future. I do think he could have some merely good years too

4:05

Bob Villar: Kopech or Honeywell?

4:05

Brad Johnson: Kopech, give me the raw ability over the pitchability

4:06

Brad Johnson: I chase pitchability in major league guys like Godley or Trevor Williams

4:06

Carl: Ryan Zimmerman Vs. Adam Duvall. Who you got?

4:06

Brad Johnson: Duvall

4:06

Brad Johnson: And I’m not a big Duvall fan, he’s Evan Gattis with outfield defense

4:06

Matt: My dynasty league is weekly lineups – both forces you to create a rotation instead of streaming, and minimizes effort to keep new fathers engaged. This is essentially a death blow for Ohtani-as-a-hitter, right?

4:07

Brad Johnson: My pure dynasty league is also weekly

4:07

Brad Johnson: it definitely hurts, but you still have some flexibility with how you deploy him

4:07

Matt: You’re being overly kind to Hamels lumping him in with some guys who are still pretty good. His K rate and SwStr rate completely bottomed out last year and he’s about to turn 34. He looks done to me as a useful fantasy pitcher. Arrieta/Lester/Tanaka all look like they have a lot more left to me.

4:07

Brad Johnson: Possibly. They’re all in collapse/dead cat bounce territory

4:08

Bob Villar: Over/Under on 30 Matt Olson HR’s?

4:08

Brad Johnson: I’ll take the over

4:08

Brad Johnson: but they could be a lot more unpleasant than you’d expect

4:08

Brad Johnson: I’m betting on some serious regression with him

4:08

Desperate, confused Marlins fan: Bigger risk: Syndergaard or Conforto?

4:08

Brad Johnson: Syndergaard? I honestly have no feel for Conforto’s health right now

4:09

Brad Johnson: but Syndergaard feels like the easiest pick for mostly likely to hit the disabled list

4:09

Matt: Do you see Jorge Mateo or Dustin Fowler having any fantasy impact next year now that they’re in Oakland? Or is Mateo too far off, and Fowler just a 4th (fantasy) OF?

4:10

Brad Johnson: I don’t understand Mateo’s profile from a fantasy perspective. Not hearing that the speed will show up in the form of steals. Power isn’t anything notable.

4:10

Brad Johnson: Fowler’s a cool streamer

4:10

Brad Johnson: Mateo probably won’t appear in 2018

4:10

fresh basil: Didi? Keep or drop? Have him at a reasonable $8 in a 14tm $260 cap leagye.

4:11

Brad Johnson: Can keep at that price. Might as well. He’s another guy I don’t understand. His peripherals say he should be bad, but he’s been consistently good for two years now

4:11

Desperate, confused Marlins fan: Are you buying what Verlander is selling?

4:11

Brad Johnson: I’m selling him hard where I have the choice. Mostly because I always sell the pitchers who carried their teams in October

4:11

Skipper: FGPts. At equal cost, who’s more valuable: Pollock or Hoskins?

4:12

Brad Johnson: Gotta go with Pollock

4:12

Brad Johnson: As much as I like Hoskins, that means Pollock is either incredibly cheap or Hoskins is priced aggressively high

4:12

Brad Johnson: They’re both $25 to $30 players, but Hoskins has a much more volatile distribution

4:13

Brad Johnson: That said, if you need miracle upside, Hoskins’ is higher

4:13

Frank: you buying Piscotty bounceback? he was injured and mom was sick i think…i still like his talent, how bout you?

4:13

Brad Johnson: Yes, agreed

4:13

Frank: austin hedges have some upside or is this what he is?

4:13

Brad Johnson: Mostly, this is what he is

4:13

Brad Johnson: 20 home run with a bad average is acceptable production from a C2 though

4:14

Brad Johnson: I’m going to call it a day, good game folks