Archive for Bold Predictions

Paul Sporer’s 2017 Bold Predictions – A Review

Time for the final review of Bold Predictions. I checked in on them back in mid-July and unfortunately, things didn’t get much better for me!

James Paxton Is A Top-15 Arm.

In the end, the injury sank this one as Paxton wound up with just 24 starts. However, he posted a 2.98 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in the 136 IP and still slotted 18th on ESPN’s Player Rater among SP. It’s a loss by the letter of the law as he’s not a top-15 arm at season’s end, but even with the sub-150 IP output, I can’t imagine anyone feels like they lost out by taking Paxton. I’m going to take half-credit on this one if that’s OK.

0.5 for 1 (.500)

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Jeff Zimmerman’s 2017 Bold Predictions – A Review

It’s that time when I go back through and see how my preseason BOLD predictions held up. Usually, this process is humbling but after I reviewed them mid-season, I knew I may be in for a career year.

Note: For all the rankings, I used ESPN.com’s Player Rater.

BOLD prediction #1: Trea Turner will perform 20 spots worse than his ADP suggests.

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Mike Podhorzer’s 2017 Bold Predictions – A Review

The regular season is officially in the books! And what a season it was. I hope all of you, every single one of you, won a league. Hopefully, it was thanks to some of my bold predictions, of which I have completely forgotten the specifics since my midseason review. I have no idea how I did, so let’s be surprised together. For a referesher on my thought process behind each prediction, check out the original bold prediction article.

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Revisiting Brandon’s Warne’s 10 Bold Predictions for 2017

Why do we do this to ourselves?

We’re back again to savage my terrible preseason 10 Bold Predictions. Without further ado:

1. Robbie Ray finishes as a top-10 starter in the NL

I’m pretty proud of this one. ESPN’s player rater in 5×5 has him as the No. 10 pitcher overall, and No. 6 among NL starters behind Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez. Ray has been terrific this season in 160.1 innings, as he’s fanned 217 batters with a 1.16 WHIP, 2.86 ERA and .200 BAA.

Batting: 1-for-1 (1.000)

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Dollar-Store Inventory: Reviewing The Birchwood Brothers’ 10 Bold Predictions for 2017

We’re back after a long silence—too few things to say, too few good ways to say them, too few time—to review our Bold Predictions for 2017. Our forecasting shtick, as some of you may recall, is to detect Fantasy merit among the cheapest of the cheap—the fourth outfielders, fifth starters, and sixth men out of the bullpen who, in defiance of logic but in our view, might have value in the coming season.

So our Bold Predictions were ten guys who either cost a dollar, went in the reserve round, or weren’t taken at all in the Tout Wars Mixed League Auction the week before the season started. As we reckon it, two of our picks were derailed by injury, two (all right—three, but one of them was too whimsical to really count) were bad, one was not-bad, and four were quite good indeed. If you convened a panel of Roto experts and asked them to pick ten $1 players, would they do better than we did?

Really, we have no idea, and we’d like to know. One way or another, we actually had most of these guys on our teams this season. But then again, we played in enough leagues to have had most of the rest of MLB as well. Hope we’re at least a bit responsible for at least some of you having at least some of the guys who panned out. Read the rest of this entry »


Jeff Zimmerman’s 2017 Bold Predictions Mid-Season Review

It’s time to check in on my preseason bold predictions.

Note: For all the rankings, I used ESPN.com’s Player Rater.

BOLD prediction #1: Trea Turner will perform 20 spots worse than his ADP suggests.

I’m going to luck into getting this one eventually. Turner was going way too early compared to my projections. I saw him more as a 2nd to 3rd round talent.

He was proved me wrong by stealing 35 bases until he fractured his wrist in late June and will likely miss all the 2017 season. He currently ranks 7th overall but his value will continue to drop as others continue to rack up the counting stats.

Batting 1.000

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Justin Vibber’s 2017 Bold Predictions- In Review

‘Tis the season for reviewing bold predictions, let’s check in and see if my second year of predictions is going any better than my first did (1 for 10):

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Checking in on Bold Predictions

I posted my Bold Predictions back on April 3rd and with many of my colleagues checking in on theirs, I decided to give it a go as well and see where I stand with my 10 predictions.

JAMES PAXTON IS A TOP-15 ARM.

The injury hurt, but this one is still very much in play. He ranks 26th on ESPN’s Player Rater with a 3.19 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 28% K, and 8% BB in 87.3 IP. Obviously to be a full on win, he needs to get up into the top 15, but if he finishes anywhere in the top 25 or so, I’ll feel good about this one.

He was being taken as the 39th starter on average in NFBC leagues so he wasn’t completely off the radar by any means, but I definitely feel like I was one of the highest on a Paxton breakout. I was concerned in his first few starts off the DL, but he’s looked really sharp since I posted that piece with a 3.13 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 38 Ks in 31.7 IP.

KEVIN GAUSMAN STRIKES OUT 200 BATTERS.

LOL.

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Checking In On Perpetua’s Wacky Predictions.

Before I get into just how completely wrong my first prediction is/was, I want to briefly explain my outlook for the Bold Predictions in the first place.  I think these should be fun and spark conversation. As a result, they should probably be controversial, at least in part. There should be a reason for each pick, and the reason shouldn’t necessarily be built on a strong hypothesis. If you have a solid reason to believe something then you aren’t talking about a bold prediction, it is just a normal prediction. Bold predictions should be built on a questionable foundation, that’s the fun part.

I view this as a testing ground for ideas. Most of these are arguments I would have otherwise quietly kept to myself. Any by quietly I mean tweeted out once and then retweeted at the end of the season if they came true. Just kidding.

Having said all that, let’s get to my first and worst prediction. Oh jeez, here we go. Read the rest of this entry »


Mike Podhorzer’s 2017 Bold Predictions – Mid-Season Review

I’ve never performed a mid-season review of my pre-season bold predictions because I typically forget what I predicted and like to be surprised when I recap them six months later. But the article I wanted to write cannot be done, so here I am stepping into uncharted waters. Can you feel the excitement?! My goal this year is to beat my personal record setting 2016 performance of four correct bold predictions. Let’s see if I have any chance whatsoever.

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