Crowdsourcing Results: Posey and Santana

In this week’s ADP Crowdsourcing results, I am very happy with what we came up with.

Buster Posey
My vote: 38 (expected), 55 (you)
Average: 39, 51
Median: 40, 52.5
Std Dev: 17.7, 25.3

The biggest factor is that we think Posey will be overrated by a majority of owners. We’re expecting Posey to go in the early fourth round in most cases, and I can back that up with mock drafts I have done this offseason. In a lot of cases, we’ll see Posey go at the 3-4 turn unless those owners are averse to drafting catchers early. The second half of the question is where we’d be willing to take him, and the answer makes a ton of sense. Waiting until the middle of the fifth round to take Posey helps to mitigate some of the risks involved with drafting a young catcher by allowing you to select an extra stud beforehand in the fourth. I may not actually take him around pick 52 because I’m not one to take a catcher early unless I see tremendous value, but he slips to the late fifth or early sixth, it’d be too tempting to stay away.

Carlos Santana
My vote: 85, 72
Average: 80, 70
Median: 85, 80
Std Dev: 28.6, 25.4

Unlike Posey, it looks like we’re expecting Santana to be underrated by the majority of owners. Santana had a lot of hype early in his debut, but his brutal-looking injury made a lot of people either forget about him or simply ignore him because of the possible risks involved. Santana’s numbers from last season suggest he’ll be a top catcher if he’s healthy, possibly even ranking him alongside Posey. But the risk involved makes it harder to draft him as high as Posey will be, so taking him a couple rounds later is a safe bet. I like it, and I’d be willing to take a chance on Santana in the early seventh.



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Zach is the creator and co-author of RotoGraphs’ Roto Riteup series, and RotoGraphs’ second-longest tenured writer. You can follow him on twitter.



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DrBGiantsfan
Guest

Once you get past Mauer, McCann, Posey and VMart, catcher kind of drops off a cliff. The difference between #40 and #50 is less than 1 turn through the draft. If you stubbornly wait until #50 or later, you run the risk of being the Angels of your fantasy league.

Jake in Columbus
Guest
Jake in Columbus

Because you could still end up with a 20 HR guy in Napoli?

DrBGiantsfan
Guest

Yeah, and a lot of zeros because he doesn’t play every day. If you think Napoli is comparable to Mauer, McCann, Posey and VMart, go ahead and draft him. Me? I’d rather overdraft for one of the elites and find value at other positions later in the draft.

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