Final 2015 ZOBRIST Values

A couple of years ago for FG+, I created a minor league rating stat for hitters called ZOBRIST. It looks for hitters who were off prospect ranking lists and showed a propensity to control the strike zone and hit for power in the upper minors. It aims to find such untouted hitters such as Ben Zobrist, Matt Carpenter, and Kole Calhoun. I ran it after the 2014 season and didn’t have the best of luck picking out some non-prospects (it did love Mookie Betts). Well, it is time to run it again for some 2016 unheralded sleepers.

I haven’t made any changes this year to ZOBRIST, after implementing some baseline strikeout and walk values last year. Here are the players who meet those requirements and some thoughts on some of those players.

Final 2015 ZOBRIST Values
Name Team Position PA Age ZOBRIST BB% K% XBH%
Jeremy Dowdy White Sox C 32 24 500 25.0% 9.4% 9.4%
Ramon Flores Mariners OF 63 23 381 17.5% 9.5% 12.7%
Rougned Odor Rangers 2B 124 21 323 9.7% 8.1% 15.3%
Dan Fiorito Yankees 3B 25 24 320 12.0% 4.0% 8.0%
Leonys Martin Rangers OF 43 27 279 11.6% 9.3% 11.6%
Garrett Cooper Brewers 1B 36 24 267 19.4% 5.6% 8.3%
Tommy La Stella Cubs 2B 38 26 263 10.5% 7.9% 10.5%
Jake Smolinski Rangers OF 50 26 259 8.2% 10.9% 15.7%
Austin Hedges Padres C 79 22 253 10.1% 10.1% 12.7%
Carlos Perez Angels C 79 24 253 8.9% 8.9% 12.7%
Jose Ramirez Indians 2B 195 22 236 8.7% 4.6% 8.2%
Jerry Sands Indians 1B/OF 276 27 232 16.3% 14.5% 9.8%
Josh Bell Pirates 1B/OF 145 22 221 14.5% 10.3% 8.3%
Jason Rogers Brewers 1B 147 27 218 16.3% 15.7% 10.9%
Ender Inciarte Diamondbacks OF 23 24 209 13.0% 8.7% 13.0%
Sutton Whiting Cubs 2B/DH 23 23 209 30.4% 17.4% 4.4%
Aledmys Diaz Cardinals SS 58 24 207 10.3% 8.6% 10.3%
Ryan Lavarnway Braves C/DH 49 27 204 16.3% 14.3% 8.2%
Mason Williams Yankees OF 91 23 198 8.8% 6.6% 8.8%
Travis Jankowski Padres OF 113 24 195 11.5% 8.9% 7.1%
Nick Martini Cardinals OF 67 25 179 13.4% 14.9% 10.5%
Aneury Tavarez Red Sox OF 23 23 174 13.0% 17.4% 13.0%
Tyler White Astros 1B/3B 259 24 167 17.0% 14.8% 8.1%
Lewis Brinson Rangers OF 37 21 162 18.9% 16.2% 5.4%
Andrew Aplin Astros OF 134 24 161 17.9% 9.7% 5.2%
Dan Black White Sox 1B 140 27 157 19.3% 17.1% 9.3%
Austin Barnes Dodgers C/2B 335 25 155 10.5% 10.8% 8.4%
Jose Pirela Yankees 2B/SS 259 25 154 9.3% 8.5% 7.0%
Jose Martinez Royals OF 396 26 152 12.1% 13.9% 9.6%
Travis Snider Pirates OF 40 27 150 10.0% 7.5% 5.0%
Mike O’Neill Cardinals OF 239 27 144 15.1% 7.1% 2.5%
A.J. Schugel Diamondbacks P 25 26 144 16.0% 8.0% 4.0%
Carlos Alonso Phillies 2B/3B 51 27 141 17.7% 11.8% 5.9%
Derrick Chung Blue Jays C 87 27 138 13.8% 9.2% 6.9%
Max Kepler Twins OF 482 22 134 13.9% 13.1% 11.2%
Brock Stassi Phillies 1B 554 25 126 13.9% 11.4% 8.7%
Carlos Correa Astros SS 133 20 117 11.3% 18.8% 18.1%
Forrestt Allday Red Sox OF 21 24 114 23.8% 14.3% 0.0%
Tyler Heineman Astros C 95 24 114 8.4% 6.3% 7.4%
Carlos Moncrief Indians OF 236 26 107 14.4% 11.9% 6.8%
Ryan Schimpf Blue Jays 2B 307 27 106 13.7% 17.6% 13.0%
Jeimer Candelario Cubs 3B 182 21 105 12.1% 11.5% 8.8%
J.P. Crawford Phillies SS 405 20 104 12.1% 11.1% 8.2%
Joey Rickard Rays OF 282 24 102 13.8% 14.9% 9.6%
Carlos Paulino Twins C 72 25 100 9.7% 8.3% 6.9%
Jason Krizan Tigers OF 475 26 99 10.7% 9.1% 6.7%
Angel Franco Royals 2B 188 25 96 8.0% 9.0% 9.6%
Willson Contreras Cubs C 521 23 94 10.9% 11.9% 8.8%
Corey Jones Tigers 2B 89 27 94 11.2% 7.9% 4.5%
Sam Travis Red Sox 1B 281 21 94 11.7% 12.1% 8.2%
Tony Kemp Astros 2B 230 23 94 15.2% 12.2% 4.8%
Bijan Rademacher Cubs OF 433 24 91 15.5% 13.9% 6.2%
Tony Renda Yankees 2B 304 24 91 7.9% 7.9% 7.6%

Players
Jerry Sands – Sands has basically had the problem of striking out way too much for his limited major league power. This year in the minors, he showed the power with 14 home runs and a 14.5% K%, but again those numbers have not translated to the majors.

Tyler White – Not much love for Tyler White outside of the some hardcore Astros fans who are fed up with Chris Carter. Carter has a career walk rate (16%) higher than his strikeout rate (15%). Besides the outstanding plate discipline, he put up decent power numbers in 2015 with 14 total home runs between AA and AAA. His defense may be his limiting factor on getting called up, but in instructs this fall he is listed as a catcher.

Austin Barnes – The ZOBRIST players definitely have some overlap with Carson’s “Fringe Five” and Austin Barnes is definitely one of those players. The biggest knock on Barnes has been his power, but he has been putting up acceptable power numbers. In just 10 batted balls so far, his average exit velocity is at 93 mph with a max value of 111 mph. These values could equate to league average power from the catcher position. With his good plate discipline, he should eventually make an impact in the majors if he could just break onto the Dodgers roster.

Jose Pirela – The 25-year-old has gotten a small taste of the bigs the last couple of seasons, but hasn’t made an impact yet. Pirela’s main issue is a lack of power. In the minors, he can work the count and get some walks. In the majors, pitchers attack him and make his bat beat them. So far it hasn’t.

Jose Martinez – The 27-year-old is on the fringes of making the age and power thresholds. He just doesn’t have enough power to make it as a corner outfielder in the majors. He might be more interesting if he was a middle infielder.

Max Kepler – He’s a stud and should be on a most people’s top 50 prospects this spring as he joins the Twins.

Brock Stassi – Like Martinez, his bat may not be good enough. Also, the Phillies are paying another left-handed first baseman quite a bit of money in the majors, so Stassi’s chances may be limited.



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Jeff writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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bill

love this concept every year