MASH Report (2/18/13)

Recent injury data

 • Lance Berkman is at 80% after two off season knee surgeries. The team wants him at 100% before he joins the team. He could easiliy miss at least a couple of weeks at the beginning of the season.

 • Ricky Romero’s knee and elbow are feeling better this season after a couple of off season surgeries. He definitely showed signs of a possible injury last season. His average fastball speed dropped from an average around 93 mph in early 2011 to just above 91 mph at the end of 2012.

Also, he has had more and more issues being able to keep the ball in the strike zone over his career.

Season: Zone% (pfx)
2009: 49.4%
2010: 48.7%
2011: 47.2%
2012: 46.2%

In 2012, he BB% jumped to 12.7%. It will be interesting to see how the surgeries affect his 2013 performance.

 • Johan Santana is throwing off the mound and hopes to be ready by opening day. We’ll see if he is over his back, ankle, shoulder, pectoral and/or elbow issues of the past 5 years.

 • Matt Garza was sidelined while throwing batting practice for a strained lat. He reported his elbow, which cost him 2 months last season, feels fine.

 • Jaime Garcia’s shoulder is fine after deciding to rehabilitate it instead of having off season surgery. I am not a fan of just rehab. I could see him have shoulder issues in the near future.

 • Pablo Sandoval is fat. I am not sure how much of an issue is the weight. Here are the peak offensive seasons using wOBA for some big boned players who were between 5’7″ and 6’1″.

Name: Age at peak offensive season
Greg Luzinski: 26
Bob Hamelin: 26
Cecil Fielder: 26
Prince Fielder: 27
Kirby Puckett: 28
Mo Vaughn: 28
Matt Stairs: 29
Luis Sojo: 29
Vinny Castilla: 30
John Kruk: 31
Kevin Mitchell: 32
Tony Gwynn: 34

The peak ages averaged out at 28.8. With Sandoval heading into his age 26 season, his weight doesn’t seem to be an issue when looking at short heavy players from the past. Don’t let his weight be an issue this season.

 • Mike Trout is not fat.

 • Delmon Young will likely miss time to start the season. The big playing time winners will be Domonic Brown and Darin Ruf. The pair will likely be the starting right and left fielders for the Phillies on opening day.

 • Mike Pelfrey says he is on track to be ready by opening day. He would be pitching 11 months after having TJS. I don’t see any reason to roster except as a spot starter in a deep or AL-only league.

 • Mike Napoli’s hip has not gotten worse in a whole 2 weeks. Time to hold a party.

 • Mat Gamel tweaked his surgically repaired knee which kept him out for most of the 2012 season. He was to play 1B while Corey Hart is out because of knee surgery also. The Brewers are taking a wait and see with him and owners should also. A clearer picture of how this injury will shake out will become clearer in a day or two.

Update: Gamel is done for the year. Hunter Morris looks to be the new 1B while Hart is out (h/t to dockmarm)

 • Andrew Cashner has moved up his time table for returning from May to opening day.

 • Edwar Cabrera (shoulder impingement) and Josh Tomlin (TJS) were both officially placed on the 60-day D.L.

 • Albert Pujols is feeling fine and taking it slow after off season knee surgery.

 • John Danks threw is first team bullpen session after having surgery last year to repare damage to his rotator cuff and biceps.

 • J.A. Happ (broken foot) and Casey Janssen (shoulder) both appear to be back on track for the regular season after each had off season surgery.

 • Everett Teaford’s shoulder is not 100%. If wouldn’t matter if he was healed, he is just not a realistic fantasy option.

Player Return Timetables

Name Injury Injury/Surgery Date Early Return Date Later Return date Status Source(s)
Scott Baker TJS 4/17/12 Late March May Throwing off mound (1)
Grant Balfour Knee 2/14/13 Late March Middle April Rest (1)
Brandon Beachy TJS 6/21/12 Mid June Mid June Playing Catch (1)
Lance Derkman Knee 10/1/12 Late April Mid March Working out (1)
Jeremy Bonderman TJS 04/24/12 Late March Late March Healthy (1)
Tim Byrdak Shoulder Surgery 07/01/12 Early July Early July Bullpen Sessions (1)
Edwar Cabrera Shoulder 08/01/12 Mid March Unknown Unknown (1)
Chris Carpenter Nerve 02/05/13 September Retire Rest (1)
 Andrew Cashner Thumb laceration 1/25/13 Late March May Rest (1)
Carl Crawford TJS 8/23/12 Late April Early March Throwing (1)
Scott Diamond Elbow Surgery 10/1/12 Early April Early May Unknown (1)
Kyle Drabek TJS 6/19/12 Mid Season Mid Season Unknown (1)
Danny Duffy TJS 6/13/12 Late May/Early June All Star Game Playing Catch (1)
Neftali Feliz TJS 8/1/12 July August Playing Catch (1)
Frank Francisco Elbow 2/14/13 April Unknown Rest (1)
Corey Hart Right knee surgery 1/26/13 Late April Late May Rest (1)
Daniel Hudson TJS 7/9/12 July July Playing Catch (1)
Drew Hutchison TJS 08/08/12 August October Rehabilitation (1)
Derek Jeter Fractured Left Ankle 10/1/12 Late March Late March Fielding (1)
Ryan Kalish Shoulder Surgery 1/25/13 Early April Unknown Rest (1)
Matt Kemp Shoulder 8/1/12 Late March Late March Light Training (1)
Colby Lewis Elbow Surgery 7/1/12 Late May July Throwing (1)
Francisco Liriano Broken humerus 12/1/12 Early April Late May Rest (1)
Cory Luebke TJS 5/23/12 July July Unknown (1)
Ryan Madson TJS 04/11/12 April May Rest (1)
Nick Masset Shoulder Surgery 09/07/12 Unknown Unknown Throwing (1)
Brian McCann Torn labrum 7/4/12 Mid April May Running and throwing (1)
Logan Morrison Knee 9/1/12 Late March Late April Light Training (1)
Charlie Morton TJS 06/21/12 June Unknown Throwing (1)
Juan Oviedo TJS 09/06/12 September 2014 Rest (1)
Felipe Paulino TJS 7/3/12 Early July Early July Unknown (1)
Carl Pavano Ruptured spleen 1/25/13 Late March Mid April Rest (1)
Mike Pelfrey TJS 05/01/12 Late March Late March Throwing (1)
Michael Pineda Shoulder Surgery 5/1/12 June Early July Rest (1)
Alex Rodriguez Hip surgery 1/16/13 Early July 2014 season Rest (1)
CC Sabathia Bone Spur 10/1/12 Late March Late March Throwing (1)
Johan Santana Back Late April Middle March Throwing off mound (1)
George Sherrill TJS 5/1/11 Late April May Bullpen Sessions (1)
Joakim Soria TJS 4/2/12 Late May Early June Playing Catch (1)
Eric Surkamp TJS 07/24/12 Late July September Unknown
Tsuyoshi Wada TJS 05/11/12 Late March Early July Unknown (1)(2)
Josh Tomlin TJS 08/22/12 August 2014 Rest (1)
Joe Wieland TJS 07/27/12 Early August 2014 Catch (1)
Brian Wilson TJS 4/19/12 Unknown Unknown Not ready to pitch (1)
Randy Wolf TJS 10/30/12 2014 2014 Rest (1)
Delmon Young Right ankle 10/1/12 Mid April Early May Rest (1)

Players Returning From Injury

Information will be added as it becomes available.

Players Playing Through Injuries

Name Injury Source
Hanley Ramirez Shoulder (1)

Here is the list of players who should exceed their power projections for 2013:

Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Howard, Cameron Maybin, Trevor Plouffe, Justin Upton, Paul Konerko, Dustin Pedroia, Luke Scott, Matt Kemp, Joey Votto, Mike Moustakas, Pablo Sandoval, Carl Crawford, Giancarlo Stanton, Jacoby Ellsbury, Evan Longoria, and Troy Tulowitzki. New additions: Matt LaPorta and Howie Kendrick



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Jeff writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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dockmarm

Gamel tore his ACL — out for the year atmlb.com/UzAvVC