Mixing Fantasy & Reality: Richards, Rosenthal, Giolito

Quick looks

3/15 games

I had full game information and write-ups on each of the following three pitchers but my computer did a restart and the information was lost. Here are the condensed versions from what I remember.

• Lucas Giolito: He was a mess. His velocity is still down from his minor league reports by about 3 mph. He couldn’t throw his curveball near the strike zone. He only lasted 2/3rds of an inning with his replacement, Chris Beck, showing more promise. I am not rostering Giolito in any redraft league and recently traded Giolito for Reynaldo Lopez and Curtis Granderson in an industry 20-team dynasty league.
• James Paxton: Looked similar to 2016. No issues here.
• Cody Reed: Not ownable in redraft leagues. He throws, not pitches, with a low 3/4 arm angle which is devastating to lefties but righties can tee off on him (.131 ISO vs LHH, .385 ISO vs RHH in ‘16). Also, he can’t throw is his change for strikes (35% Zone%), so he will have issues keeping righties from waiting on the fastball. Now, if he can get ahead, his two breaking pitches, change and slider, can get some swings-and-misses so he’ll get some strikeouts. I can see the pieces which have scouts hoping but he has not put them together yet.

3/16 games

• Trevor Rosenthal (only early game on TV): The starting experiment got off to a rough start. Envision Rosenthal throwing a relief inning. His start was exactly the same yesterday except it was an inning longer. Tons of pitches all over the place for a couple innings instead of just one. Here’s what I saw.

• Fastball: Touched 99 mph according to the announcers. Straight with some rise
• Change: Announcers said one at 87 mph. OK action but was so inconsistent it was tough to know when he was throwing it.
• Curveball: I think he tried to spin a couple but I will classify them under the “POS” pitch.

Overall: A thrower. He was just reaching back and throwing hard hoping to overpower the hitters.

He still has issues being pitch efficient needing 38 pitches to get through the two innings. Last year, he averaged 21.3 pitches per inning which will mean a 100 pitch start lasts less than five innings.

• Garrett Richards had his elite velocity back, but not much else. While he never walked anyone, he was not blowing anyone away (2 Ks) in four innings. Another issue was differentiating his pitches from each other. None were consistent, so it was tough to tell exactly what was what.

• Fastball/Cutter 95-99 mph with some rise, sometimes.
• Slider /Change 91-92 mph not for K’s (GB), 9-3
• Curve 82, 12-6 break

While his fastball touched 99 mph, it dropped to around 96 mph after the first inning.

Overall, I think his 2017 performance will be similar to his 2016 starts with a bit higher ERA. I don’t believe his arm is 100% right, so he will be a little wild and continue the high walk rate. Also, his elbow will probably not hold up again and he’ll end up on the DL at some point. I am thinking 140 innings of 3.50 ERA seems about right from him.

Notes

• Matt Harvey’s fastball velocity dropped this spring into the 92-93 mph range. He averaged 94.5 mph last season and 96 mph the season before. His swinging strike rate went from 11% in 2015 to just 7.3% last year with a 1.5 mph drop. He is looking at another 2 mph drop this year so the pitch’s performance will likely drop some more. The once praise fastball is entering the average to below-average range.

He has some hope though with his breaking pitches. Last season, his slider was still elite (19% SwStr%), his curve average (11% SwStr%, 61% GB%), and flashed a serviceable changeup (11% SwStr%). One issue he may have to deal with is the three breaking pitches are rarely in the strike zone, so hitters may sit on Harvey’s  slower fastball and crush it.

I’m not going to own Harvey where I need to rely on his production. I will let someone else take a chance on him. He is currently the 34th average pitcher off the board in NFBC drafts. This is a 3rd or 4th starter range in 12-team leagues. Just way too high for me.

• I believe Shawn Kelley will be the Nationals closer until he breaks (DL the past two seasons and 2010 Tommy John surgery). Deep-league Kelley owners may want to acquire Koda Glover as a backup. While Blake Treinen fits the Sam Dyson closer mold (lots of groundballs), Glover throws hard with a nasty slider.

All told, Glover posted a 2.25 ERA and 0.95 WHIP with 66 strikeouts and 14 walks in his 56 innings in the Minors before sticking in the Majors for good in mid-August. He showed a fastball that usually sits in the mid-90’s — his Major League average was 96.8 — but can reach higher in a pinch and a 90 mph slider that MLB.com gave a 60 grade on the 20-80 scouting scale. His curveball and changeup came in below-average with 40’s, but they are used sparingly to give batters other looks.

Even if an owner can’t roster Glover immediately, make sure he is on your watch list.