Ottoneu Keeper and Inflation Data: 2018

Last year I posted an article summarizing the keeper results for all ottoneu FanGraphs points leagues, and now that the ottoneu keeper deadline has come and gone once again I am back with an update.

For context, here were the keeper results for 2016-2017:

FGPts Keeper Data: ’16-’17 Combined
League Age Proj 1st # Keepers Salary Kept Value Kept Surplus Inflation
Seventh Year Leagues $522 307 $3,383 $3,568 $185 25.3%
Sixth Year Leagues $537 302 $3,353 $3,569 $217 24.5%
Fifth Year Leagues $535 298 $3,332 $3,517 $184 20.5%
Fourth Year Leagues $517 302 $3,325 $3,474 $149 15.9%
Third Year Leagues $516 289 $3,317 $3,463 $146 16.3%
Second Year Leagues $499 273 $3,206 $3,183 ($23) 0.0%
Grand Average $524 296 $3,317 $3,471 $154 17.6%
  •  Leagues kept 296 players on average, costing $3,317 and worth $3,471(according to my personal values), resulting in 17.6% average inflation for all leagues
  • Those per team averages come out to about 25 players kept per team with $276 in salary and $289 in value
  • My general conclusion was that as leagues get older the best teams in a league get better and inflation rises, with a sharp jump from second year to third year leagues, but that there is an eventual plateau sometime at or after the seventh year

Here are the results for 2018 (please keep in mind that I’ve excluded any league that had teams over the $400/40 caps at the keeper deadline, leagues with less than 12 teams, and vote-off leagues):

FGPts Keeper Data: ’18
League Age Proj 1st # Keepers Salary Kept Value Kept Surplus Inflation
Eighth Year Leagues $517 293 $3,398 $3,603 $205 19.2%
Seventh Year Leagues $545 303 $3,509 $3,672 $163 17.3%
Sixth Year Leagues $530 307 $3,474 $3,610 $126 12.4%
Fifth Year Leagues $516 272 $3,343 $3,540 $197 17.6%
Fourth Year Leagues $503 286 $3,325 $3,475 $149 13.4%
Third Year Leagues $506 254 $3,272 $3,363 $91 7.2%
Second Year Leagues $490 275 $3,326 $3,262 ($64) -4.8%
Grand Average $515 284 $3,378 $3,504 $124 11.8%
  • In 2018 leagues kept 284 players on average, costing $3,378 and worth $3,504 (according to my personal values), resulting in 11.8% inflation
  • Those per team averages come out to about 24 players kept per team with $282 in salary and $292 in value
  • In general teams kept one fewer player than they did the last two years, spending $6 more but with only $3 in additional value
  • Inflation overall is down quite a bit compared to the past two years, at every league age bucket, and I’m not entirely sure why. It looks like ottoneu owners were less likely to cut their overpriced studs this offseason, which drove inflation down a bit.

Lastly, here are the combined keeper/inflation totals for all three seasons:

FGPts Keeper Data: ’16-’18 Combined
League Age Proj 1st # Keepers Salary Kept Value Kept Surplus Inflation
Eighth Year Leagues $517 293 $3,398 $3,603 $205 19.2%
Seventh Year Leagues $530 306 $3,425 $3,603 $178 22.6%
Sixth Year Leagues $535 304 $3,393 $3,583 $187 20.5%
Fifth Year Leagues $529 289 $3,336 $3,525 $188 19.5%
Fourth Year Leagues $512 297 $3,325 $3,474 $149 15.1%
Third Year Leagues $513 277 $3,302 $3,430 $128 13.3%
Second Year Leagues $496 274 $3,246 $3,209 ($37) -1.6%
Grand Average $521 292 $3,337 $3,482 $144 15.7%
  • In general, second year leagues actually have slight deflation (cut ruthlessly!), but inflation rises sharply from the second year to the third, and begins to level out around the sixth to eighth season
  • I have only two years worth of seventh year league data, and only a single year for eighth year league data, but it looks like the inflation plateau I predicted in last year’s column probably exists right around the seventh or eighth season. It will be interesting to see if the plateau exists again in ’19, and whether the oldest leagues have stable inflation or actually begin to have less inflation

I didn’t do this analysis last year, but here are the year over year inflation changes from 2017 to 2018 for all FanGraphs points leagues where I have inflation data for both seasons:

Year over Year Inflation ’17 to ’18
Year over Year 2017 2018 Delta
Seventh to Eighth 24.8% 21.4% -3.4%
Sixth to Seventh 16.8% 15.7% -1.1%
Fifth to Sixth 17.1% 14.8% -2.3%
Fourth to Fifth 15.6% 17.6% 2.0%
Third to Fourth 10.7% 13.7% 3.0%
Second to Third -2.2% 7.7% 9.9%
  • The trends are very similar to the inflation changes you might expect when looking at the ’16-’18 combined table above
  • At least for this year, leagues going into their third season

I first posted about inflation as a function of league age in ottoneu two years ago, and while I don’t think the data or the conclusions are ironclad, it is useful to have an understanding of general inflation trends when considering offseason trades and keep/cut decisions.

Any questions about these results? Were there any surprising keeps or cuts in your leagues? Let me know in the comments!

 



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Justin is a life long Cubs fan who has been playing fantasy baseball for 20+ years, and an ottoneu addict since 2012. Follow him on Twitter @justinvibber.

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sphenreckson
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sphenreckson

Why is their deflation in 2nd year leagues? That seems to be the case in mine, and was quite surprised. What changes dramatically between year two and three?