The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 601 – Top 25 SP Falloffs in ‘19


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 Top 25 SPs from ’18 to Falloff in ’19

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Sunday Evening FAAB & Waiver Wire Chat

hscer: most droppable? (next opponent listed) Fiers-MIN; Urena-CIN; Minor-SEA; Matz-@PHI; Sabathia-BAL; Lucchesi-SF. thanks

Jeff Zimmerman: Urena or Minor

Enlightening Round: Best source for finding out who will actually start over the last two weeks? My points league has a cap on starting pitching for our two week final and I have to choose wisely

Jeff Zimmerman: It’s a little late in the season to possibly pay the full price, but I live off the weekly/daily projections. Ruby Gamble runs it and he knows his shit. For many of the best out there, it’s one-stop shopping.

Joe B: need wins- Godley has been horrible. Would you  pick up CC Sabathia who has been pretty bad in September but he does have a start this week against Baltimore?

Jeff Zimmerman: CC is a great streamer this week

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Week 26 Mixed-League FAAB Estimates

The FAAB bids this past week at the NFBC’s Main Event mirrored the regular season, almost dead. Even so, I’m back for another week of estimates for the upcoming bidding cycle.

First off, here is a snapshot of last week’s results.

On average, the bids were significantly higher than expected except with some rookie call-ups. I went back to the drawing board and completely reworked my formulas with some historically acceptable results.

My current quandary is making the estimates more usable. Before next season, I can reexamine the information with fresh eyes and possibly explore other options.
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Daily Starters – Saturday, September 15th

Compared to yesterday’s streaming options, today’s group could win the Cy Young. While there are still some clunkers a few usable options exist. For the pitcher examined, I’m using pitcher owned in 20% or fewer FanTrax leagues.

Erasmo Ramirez at Angels (18%)

I’d have no issues starting him for this game. His year-long results look uninviting (5.31 ERA and 2.3 HR/9) but he’s pitched decently since coming off the DL (shoulder). Since returning, he’s posted a 7.1 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, and 3.68 ERA.

He’ll face a beatable Angels team starting Andrew Heaney. He’s a fine streaming option.

Sean Reid-Foley at Yankees (15%)

I didn’t like what I saw from Reid-Foley when he debuted and nothing has changed (6.86 ERA, 9.4 K/9, 1.62 WHIP). Now, if an owner is only needing strikeouts and doesn’t mind how much the rest of his stats get abused, Reid-Foley is the day’s best strikeout option.

Yonny Chirinos vs A’s (14%)

I’m a little surprised Chirinos’s ownership is only 14%. He’s a perfectly fine streaming option (7.4 K/9, 3.81 ERA) and faces a shaky Trevor Cahill.
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Bullpen Report: September 15, 2018

Representing one of the most frustrating bullpens over the last month, could the White Sox situation finally be settling in? This coincides with the return of Nate Jones from the disabled list who recorded his first save since May 22nd on Friday night. Jones allowed a hit with two strikeouts during his second outing back this month and, dare speculate, should be the primary closer going forward. Jace Fry secured his 15th hold walking one and striking out one in the eighth inning while Ian Hamilton yielded a run (unearned) on a hit and a walk with a strikeout en route to his first hold in a two-thirds of an inning appearance in the seventh inning. This bridge continues to evolve, but fantasy owners may be able to take solace in this blueprint over the last two weeks when Chicago owns a lead.

While one bullpen in Chicago takes shape, the other returns to fluidity with Pedro Strop out for the remainder of the regular season. Fantasy owners should not overreact regarding Jose De Le Rosa’s save last night. He did get his first this year working around a double and a walk in Cincinnati. However, all of Jesse Chavez, Steve Cishek and Carl Edwards Jr. pitched in the two prior games making them unavailable in this game. Also, those who think Justin Wilson could figure in the save mix may wish to reconsider since he was passed over for Jamie Garcia. Garcia faced Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez and Scooter Gennett in the eighth inning retiring them in order for his fourth hold. Wilson could have appeared in this game due to usage, so its worth noting. As for future saves while Brandon Morrow looks to complete a bullpen session later this afternoon, look for Chavez and Cishek to take the lead but nothing’s guaranteed. Chavez has been terrific as the Cubs pliable reliever with two wins, three saves, a 1.45 ERA, 2.61 FIP, 0.87 WHIP and 34 strikeouts against four walks in 31 innings since his acquisition. Stay tuned. Read the rest of this entry »

Roto Riteup: September 15, 2018

Jack Nicholson was super upset about this in The Departed.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 600 – New Studs v. Established Duds


The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

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GET THE SLEEPER & THE BUST T-SHIRT FROM ROTOWEAR! Read the rest of this entry »

Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – September 14th, 2018

The transcript is live, thanks for coming!


Paul Sporer: Hello everybody!! Sorry for the delay, but pod 600 needed my time and the band is back together with Justin and Jason joining me


Gloria Esteban Loaiza: Keeper time already??


Paul Sporer: Whattya mean? Like talking about them? Sure!


rpo: How do you value Aaron Hicks for next year? Top 100 guy?


Paul Sporer: Thereabouts, I *love* Aaron Hicks


MDN: What do you think about car mart for next year? Wondering what kind of price you think he should go for in drafts (5×5 roto) to decide on what kind of keeper cost is worth it for him. $10-20? >$20?!?

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Bullpen Report: September 14, 2018

Edwin Diaz and Blake Treinen have stepped up as the elite relievers in 2018. We can’t know how Pedro Strop would have stacked up with The Big Two over a full season, because he was a setup reliever for most of the first half. However, after taking over for Brandon Morrow (biceps) after the All-Star break, Strop has been close to automatic as the Cubs’ closer. Only Diaz, Treinen and Jose Leclerc have had more Roto value among full-time closers in the second half (per CBS rankings).

Though he was not in a save situation, Strop was typically solid on Thursday, keeping the Cubs tied with the Nationals through 1.2 innings. With the Cubs taking the lead in the top of the 10th inning, Joe Maddon elected to have Strop bat in order to bring him back for a third inning. He pulled up with a hamstring injury while running out a grounder, and Randy Rosario had to come in to get the save.
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The Daily Grind: Scherzzz

Ahoy there, the Streaming Wars are back. A rare instance when war is good for something.


  1. TDG Invitational
  2. Weather Reports
  3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
  4. SaberSim Says…
  5. More Evidence Against The DH

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