Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – August 10th, 2018

Transcript is below!

12:25

Paul Sporer: Happy Friday! Let’s talk some baseball!!

12:25

Dusty (Colorado): Thoughts on Wander Javier? What’s his upside?

12:25

Paul Sporer: Dusty!!! Where ya been??

12:25

Eldridge Cleaver: Kenta Maeda – the shut down closer?!?!?

12:25

Paul Sporer: Justin and I speculated on Walker Buehler maybe sliding in there in the pod we just recorded (up later today)

12:25

hscer: Hello, I was getting my saves from Jansen, Rodney, Minter, and Yates. I feel so lost.

12:26

Paul Sporer: It’s insane how quickly things can turn

12:27

zurzles: 10 team standard 5×5, H2H. Playoffs coming up. I just went from a trio of Diaz/Knebel/Rodney to a trio of Diaz/?????/no one. Hader just hit waivers. Do I use my coveted #1 waiver position I’ve been saving for a month?

12:28

Paul Sporer: Are there guys like Lou Trivino available? McHugh or Peacock from HOU? Getting Hader isn’t bad, but if there’s others great RP available, I might save the priority

12:28

Juan Soto: Am I worth taking as a third and final keeper in a 10tm OBP league?

12:29

Paul Sporer: At equal cost? Thus he’d be a top 30 guy? That’s a little high

12:33

John: Hey Paul, big fan of the podcast. Had a small request for you – often times you talk about players without mentioning their team. This is fine for hardcore fans, but can be tougher for more casual listeners. Do you think you could quickly mention team names when changing the topic to a new player? Would be very appreciated!

12:33

Paul Sporer: I’ll absolutely be more mindful on that

12:38

Paul Sporer: on a call from my boss, one moment

12:40

Paul Sporer: dangit, I got fired for not like Kyle Gibson enough

12:40

Paul Sporer: wait a minute, that sounded like Justin Mason pretending to be my boss!

12:40

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: First place, keep three OBP league: Trade Albies and a 7th rounder for Matt Chapman, Greg Polanco, and a 14th rounder? Albies would have been my third keeper, but also have Yelich or Torres and want to make up for Springer being out.

12:42

Paul Sporer: Wow, this is a Sporer Special right here. Big fan of all three players. This is a fair deal and I could understand doing it to fill in for Springer, but I’m leaning toward sitting tight with Albies. His power-speed capability is just too valuable.

12:42

J-Rock: 2 Quick questions – will Berrio’s have his IP capped and what are your (quick) thoughts on Manaea ROS?

12:44

Paul Sporer: No, he threw 185 last year. Shouldn’t be an issue this year. Manaea is interesting, we actually discuss him on the pod. Despite a 4.25 ERA since May 1st, he’s still been a top 20 starter all year. I like the talent, but I don’t think he can maintain a mid-3.00s with this skillset

12:44

Phyllis: Hey Paul, thanks as always. Who do you like ROS in standard roto: M. Chapman or R. Devers; A. Eaton, C. Gonzalez, or W. Myers?

12:46

Paul Sporer: Chapman and Myers

12:46

zurzles: There are two teams in the league that hoard good middle relievers. No idea why Hader got dropped

12:46

Paul Sporer: That’s wild. Then I’d go for the priority and get him

12:46

hscer: Who am I going to miss more next year after my go-for-it trade, Jake Bauers or Jurickson Profar?

12:46

Paul Sporer: Interesting. We also discussed Profar on the pod today btw. I think you’ll miss him a little more bc of the positional flexibility

12:46

Shenanigans: Was offered J.D. Martinez and Elvis Andrus for Juan Soto and Paul DeJong in 12tm H2H dynasty. I feel compelled to decline (since even JD might not get me over the hump to the promised land), but it also doesn’t seem outrageous, either.

12:47

Paul Sporer: It’s not outrageous, but based on your parenthetical, I’d pass too

12:47

Chicken Sandwich: Franmil Reyes or David Dahl ROS?

12:47

hscer: I really really want to believe in Franmil. do I have permission to at least dream of 40 homers next year?

12:49

Paul Sporer: Franmil is on one. He altered his swing mechanics and looks great in this little surge. You have permission to at least dream about it, especially if it’ll keep you warm during the offseason. I’d take him over Dahl

12:49

RMR: How would you value Hoskins as a keeper in an OBP league?  I feel like losing 1B eligibility is going to hurt a bit and the lack of BABIP upside prevents him from being a truly elite hitter.

12:51

Paul Sporer: Would be cool if it held 1B, but I don’t think it kills his value. He’s still great in OBP leagues even if the BABIP hasn’t jumped to sustain his AVG

12:51

yojiveself: do i cut Kenley if he is out a month?  Our world series week ends 9/23

12:51

Paul Sporer: Yes, I can certainly see scenarios where he’s a cut unfortunately

12:51

Sebastian: Trade Trea Turner + Robbie Ray for Gleyber and Clevinger?

12:51

Paul Sporer: League context would help. It’s certainly fair.

12:52

BA: What’s the best way to make up batting average? in 3rd (12 tm, roto keeper, 5×5) trying to push and in the top half of every category but last in BA.

12:52

Paul Sporer: It’s hard without doing it via trade, but maybe look for some high-contact BABIP laggards who could get hot over the final 2 months

12:52

zurzles: Gomber vs KC or Holland vs PIT?

12:53

Paul Sporer: Matchup alone can’t push Gomber over Holland for me

12:53

Peter: 5×5 roto with 9 hitters and 7 pitchers – Keep 5 for next year out of: Scherzer, tanton, Arenado, Freeman, Acuna, Baez, Kluber and Segura.  I am leaning the first 5.  About right?

12:53

Paul Sporer: Ya I think you’ll agonize over the Acuna/Baez debate, but the first four are locked in for sure

12:53

Big Tuna : Renfroe crushing lately. Are you adding in 12 tm OPS and how confident are you ROS?

12:54

Paul Sporer: I’m not super-confident, but I’m down to add and see where it goes. Huge power and locked in right now

12:55

yojiveself: does McCullers return to a spot in the rotation in September?

12:55

Paul Sporer: Ya I’d imagine so, but exactly when is the tough part.

12:56

yojiveself: trust Pivetta at home vs Boston next week?  10 team H2H and I could use a solid SP w/ 2 starts

12:56

Paul Sporer: Terrifying but it sounds like you have to take the gamble

12:57

Big Tuna : Drop Blake Parker for Scott Alexander if SV are nice but ratios and K are better?

12:57

Paul Sporer: I’d stick with Parker, I know he’s been bumpy of late, but his Ks and ratios have been better season-long

12:57

hscer: pfft, he’s just your boss lol

12:57

zurzles: tell dave i said hi

12:58

Paul Sporer: lol

12:58

Greg: Price , Anibal or Hill ROS?

12:59

Paul Sporer: Hill, but I have him and Price right by each other. I like what Anibal’s been doing, but he got hurt yesterday and had to leave. SP ranks:  https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/august-starting-pitcher-rankings/

12:59

CubFan: So is it a closing committee in Twinke Kingdom? Who’s the best bet for ros and also 2019?

1:00

Paul Sporer: I could see Reed getting a shot bc they paid him, but I’m putting my chips on Trevor May, espec. bc he’ll be cheaper in FAAB this weekend

1:00

Bl28: Do you start Snell @ Toronto and Gray vs LAD at home

1:00

Paul Sporer: Yes on both

1:00

baseballguy: keep holding eloy in a 12 team points league?  does he get the callup soon?

1:01

Paul Sporer: Not sure if the call up is coming, always hard to tell, but hang on as long as you can

1:02

Matt: Currently running 3rd in a 20-team 5×5 league. Top 6 make playoffs but my staff has been crushed recently with injuries to Carlos Martinez and Alex Wood. What would your streaming SP approach be in a deep league like this? Target specific guys, play matchups, other? Any names you wanna drop?

1:03

Paul Sporer: The streaming landscape has been a total nightmare, but I think you’ll have to play the matchups. I think Jeff and I will be doing daily spot starter pieces starting in Sept.

1:03

baseballguy: please rank these SP ROS in a H2H points league: castillo, j. gray, cahill, pivetta, rodon, wood, musgrove (RP eligible), glasnow (RP eligible).

1:03

J-Rock: Keep an eye out for JT Chargois on the Dodgers – he might be a sneaky sleeper.

1:03

Paul Sporer: Agreed, mentioned him on the pod when we talked Jansen’s heart situation.

1:04

Bert: Severino too much to give for Soto?  10 team mixed 10 keepers.

1:04

Paul Sporer: No, that’s a fair deal. Stud for stud.

1:04

John B: Trade Stripling or A Wood for Gregory Polanco?

1:04

Paul Sporer: Sure, I’d go Wood

1:05

Chicken Sandwich: FYI – Lance Lynn might suck, but in H2H leagues, hes a 2-start pitcher against CWS & DET in the first week of playoffs.

1:05

Paul Sporer: Ya the Yankees are rocking a very favorable schedule and makes someone like Lynn a worthy streamer

1:05

Bert: Optimistic on Kyle Tucker long term?

1:05

Paul Sporer: Yes, for sure. Power and speed

1:05

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Re: The Sporer Special, yeah, I was figuring on sitting tight. I am employing Jake Bauers in the meantime, so I don’t think all is lost. Would you keep Albies over Yelich for a perennial contender? (Also keeping F. Freeman and J. Ramirez).

1:06

Paul Sporer: REALLY hard to decide b/w Albies & Yelly. I’m leaning Albies, but I don’t think there’s a *wrong* answer

1:07

Your Lawn Service: Franmil or Bauers ROS? OBP 10 teamer

1:07

Paul Sporer: Leaning Bauers

1:08

Juan Soto: How high am I going in drafts next year?

1:08

Paul Sporer: Probably top 50 regularly, definitely eager to see his ADP

1:08

baseballguy: which SP should we be concerned with innings limits ROS? flaherty? pivetta? rodon? wood? cahill?

1:08

Woodrow the Impaler: Start Jon Gray and Kenta Maeda in Coors tonight? I’m a little terrified.

1:09

Paul Sporer: Understandably nervous, but I think I’d start both in most scenarios

1:09

CompGuy: Where does Freeman go next year in OBP leagues?

1:09

Paul Sporer: Top 10

1:10

Me: Matt Chapman looks so much like Donaldson(oak version). Do you think he can get there?

1:10

Paul Sporer: I do. He’s one of my favorite young players in baseball

1:11

Rocco: Paul — what are your thoughts on Odor and K. Calhoun — ride them while hot, or do you think the changes they’ve made have staying power?

1:11

Paul Sporer: Definitely gotta utilize both, they’ve been insane

1:11

Leaf Blower: Franmil or Daniel Murphy ROS?

1:11

Paul Sporer: Still Murphy, let’s not get toooo wild on the Franmil hype

1:12

Billy: Got Bryant and Treinen for Kershaw in a keep forever mix, how did I do?

1:12

Paul Sporer: I dig it!

1:12

304Yinzer: Whats the deal with Marco Gonzalez. Has fallen off a cliff recently. Is the workload starting to wear him down? Any concern that his innings get limited/capped?

1:14

Paul Sporer: Has he fallen off a cliff? One nightmare start, but that’s really it. He seems like a high-3.00s ERA pitcher anyway

1:14

Rocco: How many starts can we expect out of McCullers Jr. before year end?

1:14

Paul Sporer: 2

1:14

brood550: Tyler White ROS

1:14

Paul Sporer: Is that a question?

1:14

SurfNdestroy: Should I move on from Byron Buxton in a 20 teamer keeper league?

1:14

Paul Sporer: I’d still try to trade him, but I don’t really mess with Buxton, tbh

1:15

obri1320: Brantley or Mallex Smith ROS? OBP league

1:15

Paul Sporer: Do you need Mallex’s SBs? If so, go with him, he actually has a solid OBP which might surprise some ppl

1:15

Bert: What SP’s would be equal return for Gary Sanchez?

1:16

SurfNdestroy: what’s a hypothetical fair return for C. Yelich? I need pitching

1:16

Paul Sporer: Y’all, these questions are literally impossible to answer, especially at this point of the year because it depends on your league market and also what you need. Better off saying “I’m targeting X, Y, and Z for Player A, does that seem viable?” or something like that

1:17

Corey: Tell Nick the AL Central needs a new name like the NL Easy

1:17

Paul Sporer: LOL, yes we do need one to express its awfulness

1:22

Shenanigans: RE: The AL Central – Best I’ve heard so far is the AL Comedy Central.

1:22

Paul Sporer: LOL I dig it!

1:22

Brett: Greg Bird with holding in a 10-teamer?  I was about to cut him a while back. Then he went on a hot streak, so I held a little longer.  Now he’s on a cold streak again.

1:23

Paul Sporer: I get why ppl wanna invest, but the hype needs to chill. He’s hitting .203 over his last 411 PA

1:23

Ryan: 12 team H2H, should I drop Muncy for Matt Chapman? Please say yes, because I already did it.

1:23

Paul Sporer: Ya I’m fine with that. Crazy that Chapman was available, tbh

1:23

Boxer: Drop Boxberger for scott Alexander in a 10 team, 4 Rp spot, svhd league?

1:24

Paul Sporer: Nah, I’m sticking with Boxy

1:24

Raider: 10tm h2h does villar stay relevant the rest of the year or ride the hot streak?

1:25

Paul Sporer: Just ride it out, it could definitely last the rest of the way

1:25

Kevin: Avisial Garcia, Conforto, or Souza Jr ROS?

1:25

Paul Sporer: I like ’em in your order

1:26

Hannah Hochevar: How tightly should I be holding onto a $1 Willie Calhoun in my al only obp league?

1:27

Paul Sporer: Rather tightly, but not untradeable

1:27

Ryan: Start Minor in NYY tonight?

1:27

Paul Sporer: It’d have to be a pretty deep format

1:27

304Yinzer: I know he’s ahead of injury timeline, but I have a league to win… is it finally time to cut Tommy Pham loose?

1:28

Paul Sporer: Ya I’m fine with that. I dropped him in a 10-teamer

1:28

Abomb: Phillies just got Bour. Where (or are) they gonna play him?

1:28

baseballguy: phillies just acquired bour from marlins.  what does this mean for carlos santana ROS?

1:29

Paul Sporer: Dang, this would seem to hurt both I’d think as neither is likely to be a full-timer now

1:30

Tommy Tutone: Do you keep G Richards in a 12 team, 25 man dynasty league?

1:31

Paul Sporer: I’m totally fine moving on. I’ve always been a fan, but it’s just not close to happening

1:31

Flava Flav: In a dynasty would you rather have Margot or Pham?

1:31

Paul Sporer: Close toss up for sure, but I’ll still lean Pham

1:31

E: You’re OK with dropping Muncy in a 12 team? You think he regresses that much?

1:32

Paul Sporer: Only bc Chapman was available. I’m not cutting him yet in most setups as I don’t suspect Chapman is that available

1:32

TINSTAPP: Stripling on an inning limit(he not mentioned in the article)

1:35

Paul Sporer: He’s out of the injury nexus at age-28, but I could see a skip a two just bc it’s the Dodger Way

1:35

PowerSlave!: Mondesi Junior.  Can I dream of 15/30?  Or am I delusional?

1:38

Paul Sporer: I’m a huge fan. I’ve been over dreaming about 10/40, tbh. He’s got tons of talent

1:39

Ryan: Is Soto drafted 3rd round or earlier next year?

1:40

Paul Sporer: I was saying top 50 earlier, but that means he will have some leagues where he’s drafted that highly

1:40

Paul Sporer: Prospect Growth Isn’t Linear! #PGIL

1:40

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going. Going to edit & post the pod. Thanks so much for coming! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (psporer24), and Snapchat (psporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later tonight and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a great weekend!



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Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and contributes to ESPN's Daily Notes. He is the purveyor of the SP Guide (on hiatus for '17). Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer, on Snapchat at psporer, and on Twitch at psporer24.

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