Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – December 1st, 2017

Thanks to everyone for coming out!

2:30

Paul Sporer: Good afternoon, everyone! Get your questions in and we’ll get going very soon

2:32

Don Mattingly’s Sideburns: Draft and hold rankings: Ohtani, Paxton, Keuchel, Quintana to pair with Darvish.

2:34

Paul Sporer: Still want to see where Ohtani lands, but he’s right in the area of those 3. I have all four top 25 with Darvish at 11

2:34

Silly Beane: Does Ahmed Rosario have any fantasy value in keeper leagues, or does he project as too glove-reliant for IRL value?

2:35

Paul Sporer: Depends on league type, but he definitely strikes me as someone who will be a better real life player than fantasy for at least the first couple years of his career

2:35

Jordan: Let’s say you’ve already got Ohtani in a dynasty league. Do you shop him? Is he the rare guy that’s simply more fun to have, regardless of outcome?

2:35

Paul Sporer: I mean, you can almost certainly fetch a MINT, but I’d probably just want to hold

2:36

Minty: 10 team OBP $200 budget. Is your boy Barnes worth signing at $4/5/6?

2:36

Paul Sporer: Ya I think the OBP and latest Grandal rumors seal it for me

2:37

Jake: What are some tips you’d have for a first time Ottoneu player taking over a team in a long term league? I have good prospects (Acuna, Tucker, Keller) good young pitchers (Weaver, Castillo) and 3 studs (Kluber, $19 G. Sanchez, $12 Hoskins). Should I try and flip some prospects or flip the studs?

2:38

Paul Sporer: I think those prospects are close enough that I’d hold them and sell the studs. If it was a buncha 18 year olds, I’d probably go the other way

2:39

AD: Happy Friday Paul! Just traded my Hendricks, Salazar, and Chapman for Donaldson and Porcello in 20 team H2H keep-forever. Work for you?

2:39

Paul Sporer: I’m cool with that. Not a huge Porcello guy, but his IP likely do well in H2H and Donaldson is a beast

2:39

ChicagoCardinal: Roster construction question for you – would you rather lock in good players near a salary cap, trade them for lesser salary/lesser value players, or cut them and maintain cap space?

2:40

Paul Sporer: I want the best players, especially in 10-12 team leagues so I’d lean toward the former. In deeper leagues, I’m OK spreading it out a bit and going for the lesser-but-cheaper players

2:40

Max: 12 team AL only 4×4- what price is Trout worth?

2:40

Paul Sporer: like $55?

2:40

Ed: Who finishes 2018 with a better season: Franklin Barreto or Scott Kingery? Both look like they could see sufficient starting time at second base for their respective teams.

2:42

Paul Sporer: I’d say Barreto. I think he has the better shot to break camp and be up all year

2:42

Scottttttttttt: Hi White Sox fan here.

2:42

Paul Sporer: Yo! Psyched about Beef Castillo?

2:42

Greinke: Run away from White Sox pitching prospects with Castillo as their top receiver?

2:42

Paul Sporer: It dents ’em, but not so much that I’d fully run away

2:42

Jake: Who wins in dynasty: JDM, Yadier Alvarez for Hoskins, Acuna, and Mitch Keller?

2:42

Paul Sporer: Love JD, but I think I want the trio

2:43

Nelson: Donaldson at 25$ or Sano at 13$ (otto prices). Is Sano’s health still a mystery?

2:43

Paul Sporer: I’d pay the extra for JD. Sano’s health isn’t really a mystery, it’s seems rather established that he isn’t a super-healthy dude

2:43

Bruce: Even with Posey projected as the #2 or 3 C next year, his counting stats are pretty lame. Do you pay a premium for him as a Catcher or not?

2:44

Paul Sporer: Nah, I might dip in on Sanchez in one league just in case he goes Piazza, but otherwise I’m fading C until middle tiers

2:44

Wes: Any thoughts on Dustin May? I picked him up in Dynasty, his walk rate was crazy low.

2:45

Paul Sporer: Long way out, but strong stuff and looks like a nice prospect

2:45

Sparks-ATX: yo Paul, headed to Stonehouse for a coffee..just saw you are chatting. You buying Taillon in a 20 Teamer or selling?

2:46

Paul Sporer: Yo yo. Yeah I’m def buying in a 20-teamer. He went through a lot last year and I know he had a little late-summer lull, but finished strong (4 gems in last 5)

2:46

AD: With Hanley and Cruz both being strictly DH-eligible heading into next season I need to move one. What tier of asset could I trade them for in a dynasty league?

2:47

Paul Sporer: Depends on your market, of course, but Cruz is going to return way more

2:48

Brian: How do you value Syndergaard for 2018?  Projections look awesome, but how many starts does he make?

2:49

Paul Sporer: I’ve got him top 10 still. Liked seeing him finish on the mound even though he wasn’t exactly going deep. Stuff is amazing. Health is a concern, but it’s a risk I’ll take

2:49

Ed: Expectations for Rafael Devers in his first full season in Boston? Top 10 3B?

2:50

Paul Sporer: Top 10 will be tough bc of the talent at that position, but I don’t rule out something like .278/28/80/80

2:51

Steve Bartman : Hello

2:51

Paul Sporer: Sup, Stevie!

2:51

Parth: Paul – if you remember me – I’m hyped

2:51

Paul Sporer: Parthhhhhh

2:53

Floyd: What do you make of Newcomb & Gohara for 2018 & career — ranging from bullpen, #5 starter up to #2 starter?

2:54

Paul Sporer: I really like Newcomb, but man does he love walkin fools so I could totally see a bullpen future. Gohara is looking like a solid #3 to me

2:54

Dipoto: Seeking Ks, made this trade: Give Travis Shaw, Kyle Hendricks, Kente Maeda, and J Duplantier get Yu Darvish, Yo Cespedes, Alex Cobb, and Wander Javier in h2h dynasty. Your grade?

2:55

Paul Sporer: B+, I dig it

2:55

Brad: Thoughts on Broxton next year?  Does he get any PT or is he getting demoted or traded?

2:55

Paul Sporer: He’ll get some PT, but he’s not topping 450 PA again without sharp improvement

2:55

Harry Plopper: After Acuna, who is the next prospect you wanna own this year?

2:56
2:56

Bruce: Thames: Better overall stats than last year? Worse/same?

2:57

Paul Sporer: Man, I bought in hard on that April. I think the power & triple slash will be similar, but more R/RBI

2:57

AD: In my 12 team keeper money league with escalating yearly keeper prices I have quite a few elite-level talents well below their market value, but to the point where their combined and rising salaries are starting to strain the draft budget just a bit. Do you prefer holding onto those top assets (I’ve won the last two seasons), or moving one or two for younger, cheaper keepers with some upside?

2:58

Paul Sporer: It seems like you’re winning with them and they’re still undervalue so I’d probably keep going with ’em. If there are some major targets in the draft that you prefer, then maybe pare down the list a little, but don’t get rid of all of ’em

2:58

Parth: I’m getting sick of this Stanton saga

2:58

Paul Sporer: lol it has grown a bit tired with no movement, but as an SF fan, I’d expect you to be pretty excited since it’s getting closer to reality

2:58

Minty: Strategy ? I’m keeping Robles over Conforto. Do I trade Conforto for something small or throw him back and let people bid on him in the auction?

2:59

Paul Sporer: if you can only get something small, throw him back and let everyone bid him up. every draft should have a couple believers. i love the talent, but still worry about the shoulder

3:03

Dave: Was my offer of my $6 (keeper minimum) Pham and $34 Rizzo for $21 Blackmon as absurd as my league-mate says it was?

3:04

Paul Sporer: Eh, it’s not great bc no one is keeping $34 Rizzo when they have $21 CB so it really hinges on Pham

3:04

Paul Sporer: Not necessarily insulting, but a pretty easy no for me

3:05

Mike Stanton: In a 12 team 6×6 league with 5 keepers plus a MiLB each year, you’ve got to favor hitters over pitchers by a significant margin right? Pitching much less consistent and easier to find breakouts year to year it seems

3:05

Paul Sporer: Ya that’s the general principle I think many follow. In H2H, SPs usually jump in value, but roto tends to favor hitters

3:06

Todd: Strasburg or  Syndergaard next year?

3:07

Paul Sporer: I have em 5/6, respectively

3:07

Eduardo-ATX: What should I do with Robinson Canó in a keeper auction league? I like him but $29 is awfully steep. Then again, that might actually be a discount considering the bidding in our league gets way out of hand.

3:07

Paul Sporer: So you have big time inflation? I’d let someone else overpay for him then. I don’t think he’s *toast*, but I’m not trying to pay $29

3:07

Sparks-ATX: Let’s see the Giants add Stanton then sign Cozart to play 2b. that would be sweet

3:07

Paul Sporer: Hell, they might get Dee if the deal is right

3:07

TwoCargos: Do we have anything left in the tank to be worthy of roster spots? Are we dependent on signing in places like BAL or AZ to produce some counting stats?

3:08

Paul Sporer: I def think landing spot matters. At least Cargo Colorado finished on an up note after such a rough season. Gomez is more appealing to me bc of his speed

3:08

Shuck Bowalter: Same price, do you prefer Sano or Thames?

3:08

Paul Sporer: Sano

3:09

Reds Ryan: Is there any pitcher in Cincy worth having in ’18? Bob Steve? Finnegan? Is Castillo real?

3:09

Paul Sporer: I love Castillo. Def some risk that he regresses and has some bumps, but the stuff is so good. Bob Steve made me laugh, lol. Finny and Disco are health risks, but worthy gambles as they’ll cost v little

3:09

Frankie: Realistically where do you see your self drafting Acuna in a 12 teamer?

3:11

Paul Sporer: If I can’t get him in a double-digit round, I’m not taking him. Ideally, 13th-15th range at the earliest, but he prob won’t be around there

3:11

Boberto: Hey Paul another boring keeper question here. 12 team h2h points. Def keeping Altuve, J Ram, Mookie, Hoskins, Keuchel, Darvish. Have two spots left for Murphy, EE, Lester or Weaver. What do ya think? Ideally trying to package some of the surplus for a pitching upgrade but not sure if it’s gunna happen

3:12

Paul Sporer: Keeper questions more than acceptable this time of year! I think I’d go EE/Murph. Little nervous on Murph health, but with so many keeps, you don’t need PEAK Murph for it to pay off so bet on that bat

3:12

Sparks-ATX: another SP question. Time to move Alex Wood in 20 team dynasty?

3:12

Paul Sporer: Can prob sell high-ish, so yeah

3:13

Sam: HI Paul, I heard

3:13

Paul Sporer: … who told you?

3:13

Porcello: They’re onto me.

3:13

Paul Sporer: Stop stealing Cy Youngs

3:13

Minty: Have you tried the Aldi version of Red Bull? Very close in taste and significantly cheaper

3:13

Paul Sporer: What’s Aldi?

3:13

Nate J: Alright Paul settle this for me: Brad’s got Acuna, Zim’s got Ohtani. Who do I take with my first pick in the prospect draft in a keep forever?

3:14

Paul Sporer: Brad loves being wrong so I’m inclined to go the other way, buuuttt I think I’ll go Acuna

3:14

Reds Ryan: Speaking of Stanton, if he’s hitting in SF, do you sell high on him?

3:15

Paul Sporer: I mean, if you can get a mint for him, then consider that for sure. But I don’t think going to SF would drastically change his hititng

3:15

Paul Sporer: hitting*

3:16

Paul Sporer: Petriello dove in on this the other day – http://m.marlins.mlb.com/news/article/262408048/impact-of-stadiums-on-…

3:16

Paul Sporer: brb

3:24

Slamboni: I can only keep 3, who should I keep? 10 tm mixed roto $260 Budget: $25 Votto, Nola $6, Kluber $26, Blackmon $30, Hoskins $10, Acuna $3, Kris Bryant $42, Realmuto $7

3:25

Paul Sporer: Votto, Acuna, and Nola

3:25

Randy Savage: Are you worried about Gary Sanchez being moved to DH and losing C eligibility? As a catcher he’s probably C1/top 50, but if he becomes DH he’s probably like a top 75 guy, right?

3:25

Paul Sporer: Nah, not in the immediate future

3:28

Cam: Thoughts on Odubel Herrera for 2018?  Have him as OF 5 in a 12 team dynasty (50 man rosters) concerned how he’ll jive with Kapler and where he’ll hit in the probably improved lineup.

3:29

Paul Sporer: I could see Kapler being a positive for Herrera and helping maximize his skills. He works as OF5 for sure

3:29

JC at the Bat: When does Daniel Murphy start to decline? Is he going to be good for .300 BA and 20HRs again? And if so, for how long?

3:30

Paul Sporer: Not exactly sure when he’ll decline, but health is my concern going forward more than pure skill

3:30

Merv Throneberry: Who do you think will be more valuable in the NYY OF this year: Aaron Hicks or Clint Frazier?

3:30

Paul Sporer: I’m a Hicks fanboy. Health continues to elude him, but I’m a huge fan

3:31

James: Can you tell me any reason to be optimistic about David Price in a keeper league?  Him or Blake Snell forever?

3:35

Paul Sporer: My internet hiccuped so I’m hoping the David Price Q is showing.

3:37

Paul Sporer: His 2017 wasn’t really all that bad outside of the health. Def keeping him over Snell. Price is still missing bats and his velo returned, I think he could be a sneak value in ’18

3:38

Zimm: Need to trade 1 of devers/sano/machado due to roster restrictions in a 14 team keep forever roto league (hr/sb/r/rbi/h+w). Who should I look to move?

3:38

Paul Sporer: Manny still gonna bring back the most, so I’d go that route

3:39

Matt: Does Moncada still have enough prospect hype to get a decent return? Logjam at 2nd with Altuve, Gordon and Moncada in my Ottoneu points league.

3:39

Paul Sporer: I’d imagine there’s another believer in your league, ya. Should be at least one big believer in each league for another season

3:39

Pat G: Is Ian Happ worth rostering at 2B for a team contending in 2019-21 or should I try and move him for someone like Kyle Tucker?

3:40

Paul Sporer: I’m actually OK holding Happ over Tucker. He doesn’t have a ton of hype, but I was impressed by him this season

3:41

B: Ohtani being a better pitcher is a major complicator for his two-way hopes, huh? If he were a better hitter than pitcher, using him as a reliever would produce less skepticism?

3:41

Paul Sporer: I think that’s right, yes. Plus if he doesn’t hit at all to start, I could see it just being scrapped

3:41

Bobopedia: which 3B do you prefer over the next 5 years: Devers or Gallo?

3:43

Paul Sporer: If you can eat the AVG deficiency, I like Gallo. If you prefer balance, go Devers

3:43

Matt: Dynasty league traded Jordan Montgomery 850,000(18)(19)

3:43

Paul Sporer: How dare you!

3:43

Catchers: Keep 4in 5×5 with OBP; Kluber, Severino, Judge, Stanton, Bryant, Machado

3:44

Paul Sporer: Think I’m peacing out on the 2 Yankees

3:44

Dave: Hmm, I thought Pham at minimum price had more value than that. Especially in a league full of Cardinals fans

3:44

Paul Sporer: Maybe if Blackmon were like $30, but at $21, he’s so valuable

3:44

Yandy Diaz: How come I can’t hit fly balls? Hard contact, great on-base skills. But tons of worm burners. Plus I’m super strong. Seen my arms?

3:44

Paul Sporer: Dude, you’re yolked af. If someone teaches you to life, it’s game over for pitchers. Keeping a very close eye on you this upcoming spring

3:44

Minty: Aldi is a grocery store. Must not have them where you are

3:44

Paul Sporer: We do not

3:45

Paul Sporer: Austin is heavily populated with a local grocery called HEB

3:45

Matt: Dynasty trade Jordan Montgomery 850,000(18-19) for Jose De Leon 1,500,000(18-20); Logan Forsythe 3,500,000(18) and Hector Neris 4,000,000(18-19) How does that grade out?

3:45

Paul Sporer: Ok, ok, that’s not bad. I’ll give that a B-

3:45

Catchers: Is data-driven way to find the next Pham/Taylor? Thanks.

3:46

Paul Sporer: It’s always a mix, but we’re less privy to the scouting stuff so ya it’d be mostly statistical on our end

3:47

Paul Sporer: Both had prospect status, though not as top 100 guys. So there was pedigree. The trick is finding out what the roadblocks were. It wasn’t talent for Pham so his breakout is less surprising. Taylor was in that battle with Franklin and Miller and kinda got buried it seems

3:47

Vic Romano: What sort of AVG do you think Schwarber will have to go along with his 30+ HR’s?

3:47

Paul Sporer: .245

3:48

Vic Romano: In a keep-forever league, who would you rather hold on to…Vladdy Jr or Eloy?  It

3:48

Vic Romano: In a keep-forever league, who would you rather hold on to….Vladdy Jr or Eloy?  It’s a non-dynasty league, so either/both of them would have to take up a bench spot until ready to contribute.

3:49

Paul Sporer: Gah, that’s tough. I was going Vladdy until I saw the extra context. I think the bench spot aspect pushes me to Eloy since I could see him in ’18 while I think Vladdy is ’19

3:49

Manny Margot: Am I going to reach 15+30? How long till we have enough bats to be relevant? Love the arms coming.

3:50

Paul Sporer: Really like Margot this year. Can def see 15 hr/30 sb. Preller has rebuilt the system nicely. Could see some ’19 noise outta them, but I’m still down to get Margot in the meantime

3:50

.: Can Taijuan Walker reach a next level, or is this his high water mark?

3:50

Paul Sporer: I think he still has a level of potential. I’m a big Walker backer for sure.

3:51

.: Last year was JoRam’s career year, why does everyone think this is who he is now? We should expect 2016 production, not another 2017, right?

3:55

Paul Sporer: Def gotta regress him, but I’d do more of a 16-17 mashup then straight to 16

3:55

JH: Thoughts on austin barnes next year?

4:01

Biz Markie: You.  You got what I need.  Specifically, the answer to the question of who gets more AB’s for the Crew next year, Braun or Brinson?  Trying to decide which to keep in a dynasty league that I will be competing to win in 2018.

4:01

Paul Sporer: I’d say Braun

4:01

Henry: Jose Ramirez is only 25, no way that was his career year.

4:02

Paul Sporer: I wouldn’t say “no way”. Calling it a career year doesn’t mean he’ll be trash from here on out. There’s a lot of wiggle room to come down from ’17 and still be very good

4:02

Desperate, confused Marlins fan: Cant believe you just asked Paul about his thoughts on Austin Barnes are, I think even Barnes knows at this point

4:02

Paul Sporer: lol

4:02

HIDEAKI WAKUI: How much do you like Jose Martinez next year? Will he even have a starting role?

4:03

Paul Sporer: Gotta see what moves they make, but I think he could enter the year with a role if they don’t find a 1B. I’d tab him for 350-400 PA

4:05

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta roll. I appreciate everyone coming out! I’ll be back next week. You can follow me on Twitter @sporer, Snapchat at psporer, and on Twitch at psporer24 (where I stream MLB The Show). Have a great weekend!



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Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and contributes to ESPN's Daily Notes. He is the purveyor of the SP Guide (on hiatus for '17). Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer, on Snapchat at psporer, and on Twitch at psporer24.

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