Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – February 23rd, 2018

Transcript is below!

2:38

Paul Sporer: Baseball is finally back!!!

2:39

Tom: I have 5 picks between 7th and 19th in a redraft league with a small keeper feature (no one drafted top 70 can be kept). any strategic suggestions on how to tackle my first 5 picks?

2:39

Paul Sporer: Need a lot more context for any real answer, but just get the best players you can!

2:42

Jay: Can I win a 12 team H2H league with Carlos Martinez as my ace? Would like one of the big 4 but with all but Sale having some injury history (and heavy workloads) was thinking of spending more on hitters and trying to go for one really good arm and some steady/upside plays. Thoughts?

2:44

Paul Sporer: Not sure I’d say Sale has any substantial injury history. And Jeff Zimmerman has found that age, not workloads is the bigger concern. That said, you can win with C Mart as ace. It’d be great to get one of the big 4, but it’s not like only 4 teams have a chance to win bc of those pitchers… this isn’t the NBA!

2:44

M: Should I be worried if my top 3 pitchers are Morton, Keuchel, and Paxton in a 6×6 H2H league?  It seems like a pretty volatile group.

2:45

Paul Sporer: A lot of folks are going to have a super volatile group. Just gotta be diligent during the year and hopefully some of your later picks click, too

2:45

MarinerDan: Seeing Kershaw slipping to second, or even third, pitcher off the board.  I know there have been injury issues, but that is a little absurd, isn’t i?

2:47

Paul Sporer: No, not really. Sub-200 IP in 3 of last 4 years and back injuries are chronic. Don’t think it’s at all out of bounds to see LAD essentially treat him like Popovich does with the San Antonio Spurs where he rests his guys at times bc it’s the playoffs that matter. The Dodgers have no real need/reason to push Kershaw for much beyond 200, assuming he even gets to 200. He’s still amazing pitch for pitch, but volume matters. I have Max 1, Kersh 2, and then the 2 AL guys

2:47

MarinerDan: How much will you factor in the AZ humidor issue into your evaluation of AZ hitters and pitchers?

2:47

M: How are you feeling about Souza after the trade to Arizona?  Do you think he gets more steals to offset the homers he’s expected to lose?

2:48

Paul Sporer: Great stuff from Derek Carty on the topic –

 

Derek Carty
@DerekCarty

 

/THREAD

MUST READ: Everything you need to know about the Chase Field humidor and why Chase will become a pitchers’ park in 2018

14 Feb 2018

and we also discussed it on the pod yesterday. It will matter, but I’m not going to wildly change outlooks on players.

2:48

Jake: How can I get my 10 bold predictions published by fangraphs this year

2:48

Paul Sporer: You’d have to work for FG

2:49

Paul Sporer: Or submit to the Community side – https://www.fangraphs.com/community/

2:49

Dungeon Master: 5×5 H2H league, I can keep Ken Giles pretty cheap but need to commit a roster spot for 2 years to do so. Worth it? I am solidly in the middle of a contention window.

2:49

Paul Sporer: Eeek, no thanks. I’m not committing 2 yrs to any closer, let alone one who seems to lose his job at least once a year

2:49

RuPaul Sporer: I have the 2nd pick in a 12-team league with OBP/SLG. Steamer auction values have Stanton ranked 2nd. Is it nuts to take him there?

2:50

Paul Sporer: Not nuts, no. The added categories certainly favor him greatly.

2:50

Wendy Peffercorn: Do you think Ryan McMahon gets a real shot for a full time role in Coors this year? What could an upside line for him look like if so?

2:55

Paul Sporer: I don’t see him winning the job out of camp, but if the job opens and he gets a shot, but I could see a solid line with strong batting average and decent pop

2:55

JT: Please tell us you’re not going to follow Eno out the door!

2:56

Paul Sporer: I’m not goin anywhere!

2:56

Moltar: Paul! it is time! My keepers are due tonight. 12tm h2h points, keeping six. Already settled on GSanchez ($), Lindor ($), Freeman($$), Kershaw ($$$$), and Jansen ($$). Need to decide between Fulmer($), Godley ($), or another bat in Upton ($). Points league so pitchers rule all. I’m leaning Fulmer but so stumped!

2:57

Paul Sporer: I’d definitely go with one of the arms. I love Fulmer, but I might lean Godley with the humidor and better team context

2:57

Erik: If Senzel gets SS or 2b eligibility, that’s a big plus right? How would he compare to the best at those positions like Gleyber, Moncada, or Albies for a dynasty?

2:59

Paul Sporer: Always helpful when you add eligibility. I think he’s right in line with those prospects. Big bat, some speed, good park

2:59

Dennis: Thank you for the chat, Paul. 12 team mixed keeper Roto 5×5 (with OBP instead of BA and starting 5 OF), $260 auction budget. Would you keep your doppelganger Christian Yelich for the next two years at $29 or just this season at $26? I’m leaning towards the former, though it might be a bit risky. FWIW, I’ve got Bellinger and Gary Sanchez as cheap keepers for the next four years who can provide power…

3:00

Paul Sporer: I’m not a huge fan of contracts, but Yelich has been so solid for his entire career and now moves to a much better park with a solid lineup and I think I can get behind the $29 for 2 yrs

3:00

Oddball Herrera: So, the first day of spring training is meaningless but I was still less than enthused to see a 0-3 with 2K start for Buxton

3:01

Paul Sporer: I’m sure there will be many more

3:01

Jack: Hey Paul, your thoughts on Mallex Smith this year? I have two shares of him both in AL–Only 12 team roto leagues.

3:01

Paul Sporer: That’s the best league format to have him in! I think he gets a shot and if he holds his OBP gains from last yr, he’ll be a solid speed option!!

3:05

Dennis: Would you spend $22 (out of $260) and one of eight keeper slots in a 12 team mixed roto league to keep Craig Kimbrel this year and next? Closers are very expensive in this league… average-ish closers can go for around $15.

3:06

Paul Sporer: I have a hard time keeping closers for 2 yrs as I mentioned in the Giles question, but at least it’s one the very best here. Based on your context, it’s definitely viable

3:06

Drew: Which side of Goldy, Paxton, Kingery or Arenado, Javy Baez, Colin Moran do you like in 12 team dynasty? Thanks!

3:07

Paul Sporer: Pretty fair deal, but I think I’d go with side B

3:07

Big Tuna: Need help choosing a final keeper for a 12 tm OPS league: E. Diaz (8th round), Fulmer (13th round), Margot (17th round). Thanks!

3:07

Paul Sporer: I’ll take Margot. OPS isn’t a great category for him, but the speed plus being the cheapest sells it for me

3:08

Christian: 10 team, keep 7 (no limit on years) standard H2H Categories and I’m considering keeping 2 SP (I haven’t kept a pitcher in years). Can I build a good squad behind Yu and Robbie Ray?

3:09

Paul Sporer: Yes you can. Like I mentioned in an earlier Q, the bulk of league members are gonna be without one of the bona fide 4 and many of them will still win leagues. Yu & Ray are still a pair of top 20 guys (top 15 for many in fact) so you’re in good shape.

3:10

Rich: Would you trade Carrasco for Jose Abreu? I need a 1B and would still have C-Mart, Castillo, and Fulmer as SP keepers going into the draft

3:12

Paul Sporer: Yes I’d definitely do that in your case.

3:12

Big Tuna: How are you handling Domingo in drafts/rankings right now? It’s so hard to know how that playing time will shake out.

3:15

Paul Sporer: I’m kinda fading him right now. I’d just like to have more certainty. I can’t pay the premium of his pre-Cain/Yelich price (top 80 pick). He’s not going to be some scrub 4th OF, but we can’t feel good about 600 PA right now, either

3:15

Big Tuna: Do you think the Angels lowering the OF fence has a noticeable impact on Kole? Where would you slot him among OFs now?

3:15

Paul Sporer: No. Maybe a couple HRs

3:15

JSC: Keep White Merrifield for 2 years or Daniel Murphy for 1 in Shallow head to head league? Both cost the same to keep

3:15

Paul Sporer: Murphy for me

3:16

Colby: My league has k/9 and whip as ratio stats for roto. Thus in my rankings Andrew Miller have criminally undervalued with an adp of 200ish. Any reason to stay away?

3:16

Paul Sporer: No reason I can think of. Adding K9 certainly helps him!

3:17

Jake: What are your thoughts on Rhys Hoskins and his move to LF. I know his offensive numbers were much worse in LF as compared to 1B last year. Do you think it effects him?

3:19

Paul Sporer: I put less than zero stock in his 1B/LF splits from last yr given that we’re parsing an already tiny sample of 50 gms. It could impact his health playing LF v. 1B over 162 and thus ding his bat a little, but I’m not sure I’d greatly change my outlook on him bc of it. That said, I’m already a little lower than the market as I can’t justify the 47th overall pick. Your ADP cannot be lower than your MLB games played for a hitter.

3:20

Paul Sporer: Pitching comp would be IP v. ADP and my boy Luis Castillo is close, but pitchers are a different animal altogether

3:20

Erik: What’s a reasonable amount of inflation to expect in a dynasty league? I tried to calculate it for my dynasty league based on the guys I expected to be kept, and it came out to north of 80%. Is that a plausible amount or did I mess up?

3:20

Paul Sporer: 80% feels pretty high, but if you have a ton of single-digit guys who should be much higher than I could see it getting there. Did you follow this guide? https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/how-to-account-for-keeper-inflation-…

3:21

Maris: points league trade. Wil Myes for Roberto Osuna. I get Osuna. What you think?

3:21

Paul Sporer: Fair

3:22

Jack: Miguel Andujar ($4, minor league keeper does not effect budget) for $1 Jake Junis and $2 Chad Green (both in majors) who says no? It’s a 12 team AL only roto w/ $260 budget and 9 keepers (as well as 9 minor league keepers)

3:23

Paul Sporer: I mean, there’s no need for either said to aggressively say no. That’s super fair

3:23

DB: Do you have any suggestions of the best site for mock drafts that have the same format of NFBC leagues (12 or 15 teamers)?

3:23

Paul Sporer: Fantrax. Or use the Fantasypros Mock Draft Simulator with your own settings. It’s really good! It varies things up very nicely

3:23

MarinerDan: Rank ’em:  Paxton, Stroman, Darvish, and Hamels

3:24

Colby: Through some off-season trading I have 3 picks in the 10th Round. Who are you targeting in there? 6×6 10 Team Roto

3:24

Paul Sporer: lolwut? I don’t have targets in the 10th round. Get the players that best fit your team at the time

3:26

Boom Boom: My league switched to auction for the first time ever this year, and I want to read everything I possibly can about auction behavior – typical dynamics, how to budget, strategies for behavior during the auction, etc. (the valuation stuff I find less interesting but obviously goes hand in hand).  Do you have suggestions on books or other materials that are particularly good on this? Also generally any other 2018 fantasy baseball publications you’d recommend (in addition to the Forecaster and the Black Book, of course)

3:27

Paul Sporer: As far as books, give Larry Schecter’s book a look – https://www.amazon.com/Winning-Fantasy-Baseball-Strategies-Nine-Time/d…

3:27

Dennis: Is CJ Cron now a viable staring 1B in a 20 team mixed head to head 5×5 categories (OBP instead of BA) league? (Already spending a lot of money keeping Trout, McCutchen, Odor, and Sano so looking to keep CJ at $6 rather than Matt Carpenter at $30 with a $260 budget.)

3:28

Paul Sporer: Ya I can get behind that now that he has a bigger role. I’m not a HUGE Cron fan, but we’re not being super picky in 20-teamers. I might consider ditching Sano in favor of Carp, btw.

3:32

Oddball Herrera: Keep 10 h2h league, where I have a glut of guys with OF eligibility.  Is Acuna so good that I’d regret keeping Gallo over him, even if I don’t *really* need another outfielder? (p.s. I think Gallo’s potential is underappreciated)

3:33

Paul Sporer: ya I think you really could wind up regretting that. I’d go with Acuna even in a 10 team and not knowing exactly when he’s gonna be up. he’s not just a run of the mill #1 prospect, he’s generational

3:37

Hebrew: I’m currently in an NFBC draft champions league , 12th round. The vast majority of my offense is set (all starters save 2b and MI) but I only have 3 pitchers (Archer, Rich Hill, Ken Giles). It’s a traditional 5×5 roto. Do I start drafting as many pitchers as I can now, or do I stick to my offense first strategy and start filling my bench, or do I beef my pitching roster now?

For some context, I have the lowest number of pitchers taken so far in the draft (15 teams.) 2 Teams have taken 6 pitchers, and the rest 4 or 5.

Is this question too long?

3:38

Paul Sporer: Q isn’t too long, no. I do think it’s time to start pumping pitching. I’m not averse to starting off this way, but I don’t think you can let it go much longer otherwise you’re going to put too much burden on your sleepers and reserve picks to come through. Espec. bc some of your picks are gonna be TOTAL busts and you can’t replace them as you could in a normal lg with pickups

3:38

Erik: $1 Eugenio Suarez for a $13 Knebel and Sandy Alcantara in a deep dynasty league. Which side do you take?

3:39

Paul Sporer: Suarez. He’s quietly been really solid in Cincy

3:39

Dennis: Do you think Shelby Miller might be a decent stash in a dynasty league? Guy is only 27…

3:40

Paul Sporer: I do, but I’m also a Miller stan so keep that bias in mind lol. I still think there’s real stuff there and once he’s back, I think he can be v good again. He was looking much better last yr after that disastrous ’16

3:40

Matt Klentak: What have you seen done to Miguel Sano’s draft day value with suspension looming? Is he a keep forever, no cost dynasty keeper? (10 team AL ONLY Scoresheet)

3:41

Paul Sporer: He’s off my list. I’m not taking him anywhere. I’ve never been a fan and now he’s super out of shape and facing a suspension for his legal issues. Probably have to keep in your situation, but I might sell for 50 cents on the dollar

3:41

Desperate, confused Marlins fan: Taking over a team in a 10 team roto points league. I have to select two keepers. (k’s and caught stealing is counted) Who would you pick at these prices? Stanton 25, JD 18, Dee Gordon 28, Carlos Martinez 11, Darvish 24, Kimbrel 26 and Price 14. Thanks Paul!

3:43

Paul Sporer: I’d keep it simple and go Stanton and JD. Their prices are great even with Ks counting. CMart is close if you don’t want to keep 2 boppers

3:43

Erik: Do you keep guys who project to be worth like 3 or 4 bucks but who cost only 1 dollar in a dynasty league? Or leave the roster spots open?

3:44

Paul Sporer: Nah, not usually. If they don’t have a viable path to $10 value, I just move on. I used to keep $1 guys to a fault simply bc they were $1, but I’ve stopped doing that

3:44

Wheeler and Dealer: Trying not to get the ShNTS, but would you rather have $1 Margot or $17 Greinke in NL only?

3:45

Paul Sporer: Respect for keeping your ShiNTS (Shiny New Toy Syndrome) in check, but Margot is perfectly viable here as a buck and you can go either way. I personally gotta go Greinke at $17. An ace at a discount is a nice treat.

3:45

Matt Klentak: Offensively would you rather have Kevin Kiermaier or Jackie Bradley?

3:45

Paul Sporer: KK. Still see a potential 20 HR/30 SB season if he can stay healthy

3:45

Matt Klentak: Can you rank these 3 CF based on Offensive Value JBJ, KK, Zimmer

3:46

Paul Sporer: Zimmer jumps in the middle with his SB upside

3:47

Jingo Jango: Who are the 3 most fun players for you to watch in 2018?

3:48

Paul Sporer: Puig, Albies, and Scherzer

3:48

Jason C.: Machado or Betts? 10tm H2H dynasty league with 5×5 plus OPS

3:48

Paul Sporer: Betts for me

3:48

Matt Klentak: Since the W and QS are dying do you like Brad’s idea of combining the two?

3:48

Paul Sporer: I’m not averse to it

3:48

Tim T. : Hey Paul! I traded Marcell Ozuna and a 14th rounder for Joey Votto in a dynasty H2H OPS+TB league. Is that a fine move?

3:48

Paul Sporer: It is! Perfectly viable from both ends and I, too, prefer Votto

3:49

Chris: Hey Paul – What are your thoughts on Daniel Murphy this year and where would you be looking to take him in a standard roto?

3:50

Paul Sporer: Keeping a close eye in Spring to make sure he’s as healthy as the reports suggest and if so, I’m looking at him around pick 60

3:50

AT: Trying to trade one of my 3 closers (Hand, Knebel and Rivero), but am not getting inspiring offers (Adam Frazier, Ahmed Rosario, Nick Senzel).  Can’t even pry Margot.  Am I overreaching?

3:52

Paul Sporer: Feels like NL only or a coincidence that you named 7 NLers in which case those are 3 of the best in the lg as far as I’m concerned so I don’t blame you for asking for Margot at all. Senzel isn’t a terrible offer. He doesn’t have the clearest path right now, but he’s a strong bat who should be a fantasy stud once he gets going in the majors

3:52

Jeff: Do you think Upton is in line for major regression? If not, why is he so undervalued?

3:55

Paul Sporer: I don’t think so, no. I think he just bores ppl with 10 years of solid production. Sometimes ppl just try too hard to find the next big thing and don’t take the quality bankable production in front of them. Fantasy baseballers also have a problem in thinking that veterans don’t have upside. I mean just look what J Up did last yr, that was upside. I think we could see him get back into the 20s with his SBs this year, too. .260/30/100/20 isn’t even a stretch as a projection and he could best all of ’em in LA

3:55

MarinerDan: Is this the year Nellie Cruz declines or does he keep on bashing in the Pac NW?

3:56

Paul Sporer: Outside of injury – which we can’t project – there’s no reason whatsoever to believe he just falls off. Avg of 147 OPS+, 40 HR, 100 RBI in 155 gms the last 4 yrs. He’s insane

3:56

Hungry Hippo: Who do you like better as SP2 behind Thor? Nola or Paxton?

3:56

Matt Klentak: Do you prefer BA or OBP leagues for Roto?

3:57

Paul Sporer: Used to be a big OBP guy, but it just gives even more value to the power guys so I actually prefer AVG as it makes the pool more diverse. Not against playing OBP lgs at all, but I like AVG. The volatility makes things fun!

3:57

Tim: I’m taking over a team in my first ever auction league, so could use some help! It’s a 12-teamer with small rosters, and I get to keep five of: Xander Bogaerts $28, Justin Turner $16, Wil Myers $15, Craig Kimbrel $12, James Paxton $7, Chris Taylor $5, Justin Smoak $5, Taijuan Walker $4. Thoughts?

3:58

Tim: Oh sorry, 12-teamer w/ small rosters and H2H w/ OBP and QS!

3:59

Paul Sporer: Taylor, Paxton, Turner, Myers, and Smoak or Kimbrel. Being H2H with an extra SP category, you could realistically punt saves without much issue, but $12 is really nice for Kimbrel. Smoak’s regression can’t really hurt you at $5 and it’s not completely out of bounds to see him hold the gains and beast out again

4:00

Bill: What do you expect from Berrios this year? You buying? Do you think he can develop into a true top 10 SP?

4:01

Paul Sporer: I love Berrios. One of my favorite young arms in the game. I’m definitely buying and I think there is a path to surging into the top 10-15. That might be more of a 2019 level, but prospect growth isn’t linear, so he could put it together this year and jump a couple levels

4:07

Chris Taylor: Can i Repeat ?

4:07

Paul Sporer: I think it’s possible, yes. I’m baking in some regression just to be smart, but I don’t see a collapse like some do. More on that soon at the site by way of an article!

4:07

Yants from Fort Myers: Tell this Rays fan it gets better.

4:08

Paul Sporer: Ya know, I’ve been reading some of the stuff from Rays ppl and lightening my stance that it’s a total tank job. We may’ve overreacted. Still hate the Dickerson DFA, but that’s mainly bc I’m a Dickerson honk

4:08

Vegan Man!: Does the humidor help Greinke enough to keep him over deGrom or Carrasco?

4:08

Paul Sporer: Not deGrom for me, but I can see it over Carrasco

4:08

Jack: Can we start calling him White Merrifield from now on?

4:09

Paul Sporer: Can we start calling Jerk or Junk? I mean, if we’re just randomly not calling ppl their name

4:09

Andrew: Is Andrew Benintendi’s exit velocity concerning? His velocity on FB/LD is only 91mph.  Or am I just overanalyzing everything?

4:09

Paul Sporer: I just think he’s overrated in general and this is a good data pt showing WHY he’s overrated. No chance I’m taking him in the top 40 picks

4:10

Drew: Honeywell or Mitch Keller in dynasty?

4:10

Paul Sporer: Hard to say until we get something concrete on Honeywell’s health. Before yesterday it was him easily for me

4:10

Andrew: What should we expect from Alonso? Roughly a repeat of last season?

4:11

Paul Sporer: Roughly, yes. Maybe without such a wild 1H/2H split

4:11

DW: Old school (est.1991) 5×5 12 team standard roto auction with one game in-season eligibility.  In this format, how big of a bump do you give Rizzo?  He should have 2B eligibility for at least 3/4 of the season.

4:11

Paul Sporer: Wait, why would he not have it all season? Or are you saying he’ll gain it after a quarter? It’s a boost for sure. Prob makes him a top 15 pick

4:12

Billy: Well the air certainly came flying out of the Austin Barnes balloon, huh?  Got any not top ten catchers you like significantly more than others, or is it just a crap shoot?

4:14

Paul Sporer: The elbow news isn’t great, but he was going way too high and now he’ll be more reasonable to buy.

 

Ken Gurnick
@kengurnick

 

Dave Roberts said Barnes issue started before Spring Training. Said he could catch and throw if season started now.
22 Feb 2018

for those who missed it

4:15

Paul Sporer: I like the other Dodger, Grandal, at his current price. I’ve been snagging Tucker Barnhart a decent bit. His defense keeps him in the lineup and he’s not a terrible hitter

4:15

HappyFunBall: So my league overvalues SBs, and as such when I run FG depth chart projections through my zScore calculator AJ Pollock comes out lookign like an absolute dream. But … but … but … I just can’t convince myself to believe in his health. Am I right?

4:16

Paul Sporer: You’re right to be concerned about the health as he enters his age-30 season, but he also went 14 HR/20 SB in 114 gms last yr. I’ve been torn on him this draft season, but I’m leaning closer to buying in lately

4:16

Ned : Marwin or Nunez as a multipositional guy? Or pretty even and choose based on need for HR vs SB?

4:17

Paul Sporer: yes I’d let my needs drive the decision. I wanna love Marwin but he was COMPLETELY out of nowhere so I’d lean Nunez if all else was equal

4:17

FGM: How is a guy that isn’t known for big power like Pollack affected by the humidor?

4:18

Paul Sporer: Might cost him a couple yaks, but those could be singles or doubles instead. They aren’t automatically going to be outs. The humidor def impacted Coors, but it didn’t make it a pitcher’s park

4:18

Upton Funk: Joey Gallo in an OBP/OPS (no AVG) league is a sneaky 3B stud . . . agree or disagree?  #hottake!

4:18

Paul Sporer: Shouldn’t be sneaky if your league is paying attention, but yes he gets a great value boost

4:18

The Great Mancini: Is Shark with keeping in an 18 team points league at $17?

4:19

Paul Sporer: Ya that’s about the high end I’d keep him at with inflation. Maybe throw him back and see if the price is the same? You’d know your league’s spending habits better. Bottom line is that it’s close and not unreasonable to keep him

4:19

FGM: Bounceback for Xander this year?

4:20

Paul Sporer: I can see it, yes. I’m actually liking him as an oasis of offensive upside in the shaky pick 70-90 range

4:20

berezin: do you have 2 or 3 players totally overrated for 2018 ?

4:22

Paul Sporer: Rhys Hoskins and Luke Weaver

4:22

Beel: Marquez or Musgrove for a dynasty league?

4:22

Paul Sporer: Love both and they’re very close, but gotta use the ballpark as a tiebreaker and go Musgrove. One shellacking at Coors can do a lot of damage

4:23

MarinerDan: A guy I think is being criminally underrated is Freddie Freeman.  Should be the first 1B off the board.  Agree?

4:25

Paul Sporer: He’s the 22nd pick on average, can’t really be criminally underrated at that point. If you prefer him over Goldy and Votto, that’s not completely out of bounds, but it has to be an ironclad case to start using hyperbole like criminally underrated. He’s last across the aboard the last 3 yrs, what’s underrated? https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0…

4:26

Paul Sporer: I’ll chop off ’15 to help him a bit and there’s still no criminal case. He’s got Goldy on power, but those SBs are worth way more than the tiny power advantage. He’s also played fewer than 120 gms in 2 of the last 3 yrs – https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0…

4:26

Hannah Hochevar: Goddam I love watching baseball, even the late inning d-leaguers

4:26

Paul Sporer: Saaaame!!!!!

4:26

Jason C.: Does Machado for Lindor seem fair in a dynasty?

4:26

Paul Sporer: Ya, they’re going very close. I’d want Lindor.

4:27

Moltar: I tell ya man, all the talk about what’s the best categories to use, it just makes me love points leagues even more. Any and all production is welcome, no frantic chase for steals or reliance on single-category guys. I can’t imagine going back to thinking Billy Hamilton is a top 40 player, he was barely rosterable in points last season.

4:27

Paul Sporer: Just different parameters and whatever you enjoy playing. One isn’t inherently better than another. They’re all just constructs under which the market is set and we draft/buy accordingly

4:28

Inside Joke That Paul Forgot: If you were 100% sure you weren’t going to win this season, what would your goals be? Young players? Fun players?

4:28

Paul Sporer: What inside joke did I forget? I’d probably just get young players who could explode and maybe give me a shot. Usually young upside = fun

4:28

Jeremy: I see Myers & J.Upton as pretty similarly valued. Which do you prefer if the surrounding roster is Betts, Correa, Springer, Bregman.

4:28

Paul Sporer: J Up. I do worry about Myers’ health heading back to the OF

4:28

Mario Mendoza: I’m leaning cheap Ketel over expensive Addison, but does humidor tip it back in Addison’s favor

4:29

Paul Sporer: probably not with Addy being expensive. I like Addy as much as anyone, but a cheaper SB talent is a perfectly reasonable keep over him

4:29

Dennis: Love your sense of humor on The Sleeper and the Bust. Who are some of your favorite comedians and comedic writers/novelists?

4:34

Paul Sporer: Thanks so much! Jerry Seinfeld is my all-time favorite and why I wanted to be a comic when I was younger. I did some amateur stand up in college, but never really followed through with it. I’ll admit to loving Louis CK’s work and then of course was jarred when learning he was an uber-creep. I’m not saying he should be automatically forgiven bc of his skill, but at the same time, I think it’s still OK to acknowledge his skill at the craft even while understanding the seriousness of his terrible behavior. Enjoy Chappelle, Burr, Buress, Rock, Tiffany Haddish, Jim Jeffries, and Jerrod Carmichael

4:34

Brent: What do you think is the ideal # of DL slots?

4:35

Paul Sporer: Depends on league size, but about 5

4:35

Inside Joke That Paul Forgot: Most overrated in the consensus top 50?

4:35

Paul Sporer: Hoskins… poor Rhys, I’m crushing him this chat

4:35

Moltar: Other than Rizzo, anybody you think might get 2B eligibility midseason? 2B is my least favorite position right now. Sneaky shallow.

4:36

Paul Sporer: Can’t think of any off the top, but disagree on the shallow aspect. Think it’s sneaky deep, tbh. My 11 to 23 isn’t that different https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/early-2b-rankings-with-commentary/ and then there’s still some decent fliers in the 20s

4:37

Merkin: With the prevalence of homeruns, does the old adage power first become less relevant in drafts/auctions?  Should we be putting more of a premium on avg, thereby bumping guys up like Jo Ram?

4:38

Paul Sporer: No, it becomes even more important because a HR doesn’t get you as much as it used to. You can’t afford to fall behind. It makes me even less likely to take a rabbit like Gordon or Hamilton who will get me 0-5 HR bc then I need a couple 30+ guys to make up for it.

4:38

AT: Taijuan Walker – break out, or more of the same mediocrity?

4:39

Paul Sporer: I’m a huge Walker fan and always have been! http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/starting-pitchers-me-v-the-early-nfbc…

4:39

Matt: I’ve been joining your chats for some months now, and I think I’m missing something here. What’s “fantasy” baseball?

4:39

Paul Sporer: Wait, seriously?

4:39

TK: Let’s say Ohtani starts 24 games (130 ERA+) and gets 275 AB (130 OPS+). Nothing earth-shattering but likely a high WAR and a unique contribution to the team. How would MVP voters weigh that?

4:40

Paul Sporer: 130 OPS+ would be earth-shattering for his first year here. I think he’d get some serious consideration. Depends what his fish-based teammate did in the same season

4:40

Jeff: D’Arnaud/Plawecki – the broke man’s Grandal/Barnes? Do you think either Met can be viable in a 12tm 2C league?

4:40

Paul Sporer: Eek, no. I’m fully out on TdA and he’s the key to that platoon.

4:41

Rivervillian: Apologies, I’m very new to fantasy baseball and I’ve only been following baseball for a couple of years, but I think I’m in a standard roto 5×5 and I picked up L. Castillo and Chatwood as the backend of my pitching staff. Is that alright?

4:41

Paul Sporer: No apologies necessary! I love Castillo and think Chatwood can be a solid backend contributor, so you’ve done well there!

4:42

Desperate, confused Marlins fan: whats the best way to draft in a labor league? you answered my keeper question earlier but any advice? should i shoot high then wait for awhile? I feel like theres alot of guys I can get for a dollar

4:42

Paul Sporer: What’s a labor league?

4:42

Mr. Freeze: Where are you on Alex Wood this year? I have him as a $4 keeper in an NL, but I’m nervous about him and debating about keeping $7 Peraza or $4 Arodys Vizcaiono instead.

4:42

Paul Sporer: Not a huge fan at all, but you’ve got him cheap enough to keep easily. He can’t really hurt you at $4

4:43

Schoop of ice cream: KK career highs in a season 62r/15hr/40rbi/21sb 778 ops
JBJ career highs in a season 94r/26hr/87rbi/9 sb 833 ops

4:43

Paul Sporer: Cool.

4:45

Paul Sporer: JBJ’s breakout ’16 was worth $21. KK has been worth $16 in two partial seasons the last 2 yrs. He’s far and away better JBJ with any health bc of the speed. I’m a JBJ fan as a player, but there’s just nothing special about 20/75/.260/8

4:45

Rich: Would you deal Arenado ($39) for Jose Ramirez ($9) and Luis Castillo ($4)?

4:46

Paul Sporer: Ya I’m good with that. Ramirez is a legit 2nd round for $30 cheaper plus a massive upside arm for a stud 1st rounder

4:46

Joba’s trampoline: Paul, would you make this trade? 10-team mixed roto, standard ESPN auction league, $260 draft budget: I get JD Martinez ($21) and Machado ($27) if I give up Rhys ($6) and Benintendo ($11). He may also be willing to throw in Felipe Rivero ($6) or Willson Contreras ($11) .

4:46

Paul Sporer: I’d prob do it 2-for-2, but lean on him for either of Rivero and Contreras and then do it!

4:47

EBS: Thanks for chatting Paul, so much fun!

4:47

Paul Sporer: I appreciate y’all hanging out!

4:47

OlRock: Rank the following late round flyers, please. D. Mengden, J. Musgrove, A. Mejia.

4:47

Paul Sporer: Musgrove, Mengden, Mejia

4:47

Desperate, confused Marlins fan: Re: Money, budget, i guess im using the wrong word lol

4:48

Paul Sporer: Oh the labor question? You meant auction. OK, my bad. I was just a little tripped up

4:49

Paul Sporer: Every auction is different and really depends on your league mates, but most start off with super aggressive spending and then see bargains in the middle and then another spike late as ppl realize they have too many dollars for not enough talent and the last few gems get overbid and then it ends with dollar days. How many teams? If it’s 10-12, I’m looking to get in on the studs and go stars/scrubs. If it’s 14+, I’m more inclined to work that middle portion with all the bargains

4:50

Tim: Whoa, can’t believe you’re still going. Anyway was in a meeting – thanks for answering a while back!

4:50

Paul Sporer: Happy to help!!

4:50

Jeremy: Did A. Rosario immediately lose all his prospect appeal after just 170 PA on a crappy 2017 Mets roster? Am I crazy for thinking he could totally outperform his ADP (if he even HAS an ADP)

4:51

Paul Sporer: I think fantasy baseball is horrible about this. They get a serious case of ShiNTS (Shiny New Toy Syndrome) for every top prospect before they do anything and then if they’re not studs immediately, they are completely cast off. It’s comically ridiculous. I’m not some uber-fan of Rosario, but I’m definitely down to take a shot on him in the 200s

4:51

Jack: Also, thanks for the chat and for all the work you do with the site and pod – I’ve spent MANY commuter hours listening

4:52

Paul Sporer: Thanks so much, Jack!

4:52

Dennis: Who are some unheralded middle relievers you’re targeting for their strikeouts and ratios?

4:52

Paul Sporer: Haven’t done my research there yet, but I will have some in my RP rankings and then a separate article highlighting some of my favorites

4:52

Jack: lol, just catching up with this chat – and I know this wont make it bast mod, but I’ve been called much worse than both “Jerk” and “junk”. Also, an earlier question auto corrected “Whit” to “White” which is the kind of dopey shit that makes me laugh

4:53

Paul Sporer: lololol no sweat. I wasn’t angrily saying the Jerk/Junk thing, btw! Just trying to be funny

4:53

Getting back in the mix : Hell yeah, Jarrod Carmichael is hilarious! So dark, I love his stuff

4:53

Paul Sporer: He’s so sharp! Don’t pussyfoot around tough topics, either

4:53

Jameson: Who’s your long-term keeper pick between Jose Martinez and Ian Desmond?

4:53

Paul Sporer: I have a hard time quitting Ian Desmond. I’m giving him another go this year. I wouldn’t get too focused beyond ’18 for either, tbh

4:54

Getting back in the mix : I’m thinking of keeping Merrifield for $3 as my final keeper, but he’d basically just be backing up Murphy ($13)…do you think the SB are worth it since Whit’s lost OF eligibility in my league (10 tm h2h obp,tb,sb, r, rbi, k $260 budget)

4:54

Paul Sporer: Yes, he’s a slamdunk at $3. I have some trepidation as a top 70 pick in redraft lgs, but keepers almost certainly have him super cheap making him an easy keep

4:55

You’re the Best Paul: With the amount of HR’s last season and the look of the trend continuing is it wrong to think SP is actually something people should be focusing more on? I mean, if you were able to get three/four of your top 30 SP guys to pair along with some mid/late high upside bats that could be steady if nothing else? Just seems like SP has always been volatile, why not zig when everyone else zags?

4:55

Paul Sporer: Looks like someone found the right handle to get ANY question answered :)

4:56

Paul Sporer: I don’t think you’re out of bounds to suggest favoring SP early, but as I mentioned earlier, the abundance of HR doesn’t mean you can just punt it to the middle of the draft bc HRs are so plentiful that you now need more per roster spot than ever before. I could see a strategy of 2 bats/3 arms in the first five picks working out

4:57

Mr. Freeze: Thanks for answering on Alex Wood! Do you ever think it’s strategic to give up potential value on a guy like that and throw him back to eat up a lot of someone else’s auction budget?

4:58

Paul Sporer: That’s not a terrible idea, espec. if you have guys you like more at similar costs. Wood would probably go $17-20 in an NL only, right? So ya, it’d be a chunk out of someone’s cash

4:58

Rob: hilo Paul.  Standard 5×5 keeper league with draft pick compensation.  Would you keep Judge (cost is an 8th round pick) or Albies (cost is a 26th round pick)?  Other keepers will be K. Bryant (7th rounder) and Bellinger (27th rounder).

4:59

Paul Sporer: That’s so tough. Since you’re power-loaded with the other 2, I’m actually going to go Albies here, but let’s be real, you can’t go wrong.

4:59

Daniel Castro Fan Club: My boy gonna smash up spring training. :) Vamos, Daniel!

5:00

Paul Sporer: He’ll finally get some playing time!

5:00

Rickard: Do you have any rules/advice for signing dynasty players to multi year contracts?

5:00

Paul Sporer: Ya, don’t!

5:02

Paul Sporer: Jokes aside, I think you mean keeper? I know it’s sound pedantic, but I always thought dynasty was just keeping essentially your whole roster year to year without dollar values associated and then keeper was selecting X number of players to keep year over year. If it is the latter, I would be very leery of long term deals and almost never give them out to pitchers. Maybe an extra year for the super cheap ones, but it’d have to be a really special arm and even then there are no guarantees. Think about ppl who contracted Matt Harvey. And he’s not an isolated incident.

5:02

Tom : Really loved the show last week with Nick Pollack. Thought the three of you had a great rapport. Thanks for all of the quality content the last couple of weeks (and all winter for that matter)!

5:02

Paul Sporer: Thanks so much! Nick will def be on again in the future!

5:02

frankzapato: Hi Paul – Has the bloom come off Lewis Brinson’s Rose?

5:04

Paul Sporer: It shouldn’t. He had a meaningless 55 PA sample last yr and while he is in Miami now, he also has all the playing time he can handle. I’m not really taking any Miami guys this year, but it’s not a hard & fast rule and I could definitely see myself scooping a Brinson share

5:04

AT: You would not sign a $1 Knebel to an extension in a keeper league, where you would have him for $6 for 2 years?

5:05

Paul Sporer: It’s viable, but not automatic. Even if he flopped this yr and lost the job $6 won’t kill you, but RPs are even sketchier than SPs.

5:05

Lavar Ball: Should I be worried about Corey Seager’s back as an owner of him in dynasty?

5:05

Paul Sporer: Yes, you’re well within reason to be concerned. Doesn’t mean I’d dump him on the cheap or anything, but if you got the right off for someone comparable without back issues, I’d take it!

5:05

Sporer-ific!!!: Conforto?  What say you?

5:06

Paul Sporer: Pass this year. Not drafting a guy already slated to miss a month with a severe shoulder injury

5:09

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta roll! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer) where I regularly answer as many questions as I can! Also follow me on Snapchat (psporer) and Twitch (psporer24) — I’ll be streaming MLB The Show tonight and I’ll have my article about The Show live tomorrow!

5:09

Paul Sporer: See ya next week!



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Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and contributes to ESPN's Daily Notes. He is the purveyor of the SP Guide (on hiatus for '17). Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer, on Snapchat at psporer, and on Twitch at psporer24.

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H2H PTS Keeper Q:
Thor for a 13 or Torres for a 20? Keep forever, moving up a round each year.