Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – July 6th, 2018

This week’s transcript is below!

2:28

Paul Sporer: Hello everybody! Check out the new SP ranks – https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/july-starting-pitcher-rankings/ — and feel free to ask any questions about them (or anything else!)

2:29

Jack: Pick one RoS in a league that punishes HRs significantly: Godley or Samardzija.

2:29

Paul Sporer: I’ll go Godley because he’s actually shown a modicum of HR suppression recently (last yr)

2:29

Bruce: How are you feeling about car mart?? He had a stretch where he dropped 21 walks

2:31

Paul Sporer: Yes, that was right off the DL (and he mentioned trying to dial it down to protect himself shortly after returning), so I’m not as concerned as I might be if it was out of nowhere. He’s been better the last two times out and I think he’s feeling better.

2:31

Good Steve: What are you expecting from DeJong the rest of the way? Is he a top 10 SS option ROS?

2:32

Paul Sporer: Thereabouts… maybe top 12-13. I’m happy to see him add some walks. I was really worried about his 2017 profile, but it’s improved and he continues to mash. Must-roster for sure

2:32

Fick: Shark finishing the year top 50 SP, crazy talk?

2:33

Paul Sporer: Yeah, I mean he already has 8 starts of a 6.56 ERA to work off. He’d have to be AMAZING in the second half

2:33

Kyle: I’ve been surviving on the pitching front while being stuck with Thor and Darvish. I really need hitting help. What do you think I should target for Thor in a 12 team pts league?

2:33

Paul Sporer: Some really good hitting.

2:34

Paul Sporer: lol… I’m just messin around… but I’d target a high profile bat as opposed to multiple lesser guys. Get a centerpiece bopper.

2:34

Jonah: Matt Olson hits the ball harder than anyone on the planet, but is he 10-team material?!

2:35

Paul Sporer: Yeah, I’d say so, especially with CI. But even if not, he should probably be someone’s UT at least.

2:35

dan: Hey Paul.  With Shohei (P) being removed from the DL, are you burning a bench spot for him or cutting loose in a redraft?  Thank you!

2:35

Paul Sporer: I’m planning to cut him in NFBC this weekend

2:35

Gorky: You holding Nimmo in 10-team amidst a horrific slump?

2:37

Paul Sporer: Yes or at least trying to trade him for something better than the top waiver options. His .951 season OPS is still going to carry some weight. I know trading isn’t always easy, but try that or hold on a bit longer. We knew he wasn’t a 1.000 OPS-level player, so it had to come down.

2:37

Hecho: 15 Keeper league, need an MI bat for stretch run: should I send my E-Rod (controlled through 2021) for his Gennett (controlled through 2019)?

2:38

Paul Sporer: Yes, that looks good for your needs. Scooter has been fantastic since arriving in Cincy

2:38

Bubba: Pivetta – start him in Pitts tonight?

2:38

Paul Sporer: Yes, I am. He’s really only been bad against Washington.

2:38

Clemson: Is Nimmo regressing to the mean or still shaking off the HBP to his hand?

2:39

Paul Sporer: Perhaps both. I forgot about the HBP which is why I popped another Nimmo Q so quickly. If the hand is impacting it, he does have the break around the corner.

2:39

Bubba: Your ranking of Pivetta was pretty strong.  Do you feel it’s too early to consider him a FIP under performer?  I’m scarred from owning Javy Vazquez all those years.

2:41

Paul Sporer: Scrolled over that before you asked about starting him. Yes, it’s too early IMO. And Vazquez was pretty good even if rarely met the lofty expectations. Pivetta allowed 13 runs in 2.7 IP to Washington; he has a 3.42 ERA otherwise. One team seems to have figured him out, the one that drafted him.

2:41

Nels: Just spun Familia to bring back Jose Martinez in my 10-teamer.  You down?

2:41

Paul Sporer: If you need saves, sure!

2:41

Matty P: Dylan Bundy a play tonight in a 10 teamer @ min

2:42

Paul Sporer: I’m doing it in my H2H league, let’s roll!! :fingerscrossed:

2:42

LInus: Is Jesus Aguilar really gonna go .280/30/100?

2:42

Paul Sporer: Actually 35 HRs!

2:43

Ryan : Do you believe Foltynewicz can be a top 15 pitcher for ROS and beyond? His slider is so nasty!

2:45

Paul Sporer: He hasn’t even been top 15 so far this year so I can’t see him ascending to that level. I dig him, though, and have him slotted at 25

2:45

Kyle: With Willians Astudillo catcher eligible, worth a flier? If so how deep of a league would it take?

2:46

Paul Sporer: In 2C, I could see 12+. I’ve taken a few shots myself, including cutting Lucroy for him in one. If he doesn’t pan out, I’ll find someone as good as or better than Lucroy on the wire (he’s been awful)

2:47

Rick: Where does Suarez rank ROS among third basemen for you?

2:47

Paul Sporer: Like, 7 or 8 off the top of my head

2:48

Fick: Jack Flaherty is at 67 IP right now, will cardinals be careful with him or is 150 – 170 innings possible?

2:49

Paul Sporer: He’ll be good to go at least that. I have run the data for IP limit guys to watch, but I haven’t posted yet. I need update it and run it next week! Flaherty had 170 last yr, he shouldn’t have any worries despite his age

2:49

Biff: I love your updated SP ranks, but why no updated positional ranks?

2:51

Paul Sporer: It’d just take too much time and I feel like I’d make so few changes on the top guys that I’d just spend all the time answering comments about why I didn’t move Superstar A down despite the fact that he’s hitting .210 in April

2:52

Matt Chapman: Are you still high on me ROS? What about in keeper leagues moving forward?

2:53

Paul Sporer: Still interested this year in 12+ mixers (as CI or reserve) and like him even more in keeper leagues as I see him developing into a nice power source at 3B

2:53

Pat: Which guy do you like RoS…Jose Abreu or Charlie Blackmon?

2:53

Paul Sporer: Blackmon, despite his ho-hum first 3 months

2:54

GraphsFan: I’m out this year in a shallow keeper league… Which super prospect is most likely to get the Bryant/Acuna treatment next year, and potentially be worth a top 6 round value?

2:54

Paul Sporer: Vlad

2:54

Bautista Bat Flip: Seems to have a pulse with the Mets..  Any hope for Jose Bautista to be a productive bat the rest of the way?

2:56

Paul Sporer: Not out of bounds at all. We’re not that far removed from him being a plus bat (122 wRC+ in ’16) so it’s not hard to imagine him rebounding from last year’s nightmare, but I think it was easy to just write him off bc of his age

2:56

CT: Paul, thanks as always. In 12tm roto 7×7 where there has yet to be one trade in our league (everyone just streams apparently), does my Wacha for his T. Story straight up work? Wacha is my 3rd best pitcher, E. Escobar is my primary SS currently.

2:57

Paul Sporer: It works for you, but I don’t think it’ll work the other person. Maaaayyyybbbe if Wacha was healthy and they were pitching-starved, but Story’s been awesome so that’s not enough

2:57

scrapper: Was Stripling the most surprising first half for you?

2:58

Paul Sporer: Oh for sure, he’s been incredible

2:58

DerekD: Carlos Rodon….Buy low?

3:01

Paul Sporer: Ehhhhh… I just think it’s still going to be so volatile. I think I like the idea of Rodon more than Rodon himself. I can see him being good, but I’m not seeing it at this point. I’ll keep an eye on him rest of season

3:01

Joe: Does Hendricks have any dynasty value at all?

3:01

Paul Sporer: Probably to a Cubs fan…

3:03

Paul Sporer: Look, he put up 590 IP of 2.94 ERA before this year so I can’t pretend he’s worthless, but I have *zero* interest in him for keeper leagues so I’d be looking to deal him at the first chance

3:03

Kyle: Last place guy in our in league is tanking and has trea turner worth offering C Seager+Torres for Turner and lesser piece? Been holding Seager in a DL spot all year and running into quite a bit of injuries.14 team keep 5

3:03

Paul Sporer: Yes, and I’m not sure the other piece needs to be that much “lesser”. I do love going for Trea

3:03

GraphsFan: What happened to Teoscar :( ?

3:05

Paul Sporer: He’s not a 1.000 OPS-level player. He also has a profile that suggests volatility. He’s had a .760 OPS since May 1st and that’s not terribly far off the low-to-mid .800s I’d expect

3:05

Mark Thane: 1/2 my team is suddenly on the DL or day-to-day. Are players getting a mid-season break or what’s going on?

3:07

Paul Sporer: Think it’s just your turn to experience the hell many of us have at some point this year. There likely is something to the idea that some guys are getting pushed through the break if their original return time was like the 12th, but I don’t think it fosters a rash of DL stints

3:07

Don’tbeaHader: Are Duvall and Bour going to get close to .250? Is Bour a better option if traded?

3:08

Paul Sporer: Bour has a much better shot. Duvall is a .240 hitter. I like Bour better even if he’s stuck in MIA

3:09

Smalls Kills: Received Harper, Maximus Muncy & Suarez (along with draft pick help) for Machado, Haniger and Bauer in a 10 tm h2h keep 5 forever. Did I pay too much?

3:09

Paul Sporer: No, that works

3:10

Gest : I realize there’s almost no difference, but what made you slot Morton 1st out of Morton, Bauer, and Snell?

3:11

Paul Sporer: Because there’s a person who comes to my stream and constantly gasses Snell up so I had to cut him down a peg.

3:12

Paul Sporer: Just kidding… I honestly didn’t give them much thought as I was just focused on getting them in top 15. I can certainly listen to any order w/them

3:13

Rick: So Marco Gonzales – WTH? Is he a thing now for fantasy?

3:15

Paul Sporer: I think so! I remember writing him up in an SP Guide as a prospect and I was excited to see what he’d become, but then he was derailed by injuries so we’re finally seeing the fruits of a former top 50 prospect

3:16

Mike Honcho: What side do you like better? Donaldson/Blackmon ROS?

3:16

Paul Sporer: Blackmon

3:16

Mike: If healthy whereabouts would Buehler be in your rankings?

3:16

Paul Sporer: Top 30. I’m always starting him when healthy and in the rotation

3:16

Bill: How many homers does Max Muncy hit in 2019?

3:16

Paul Sporer: 29

3:17

Griffey: I held onto Zach Britton in a DL spot all year hoping I’d end up with a closer for the 2nd half.  But he’s looked awful so far.  Any hope?  Can I drop him?  (12 teamer).

3:19

Paul Sporer: Ya he’s clearly workin through it still. I’m fine with cutting him in 12-teamer espec. bc I think there’s a scenario where he does get going and then gets traded into a setup role

3:19

Rick: King Felix has looked more royal the past month – has he figured out how to pitch with less velocity? Is he trustable?

3:24

Paul Sporer: I hadn’t really checked in on him lately, but ya he’s got a 3.71 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in the last month with 16% K-BB, including gems v. BOS & NYY. I’m open to streaming him now, but I’m still keeping a very tight leash

3:24

John: Did the Cardinals make a big mistake trading Marco Gonzales for Tyler O’Neill?

3:24

Paul Sporer: Remember when everyone was making fun of Seattle for that trade because O’Neill hit a home run

3:24

Shaun: Read Nick Polack’s writeup and saw your rankings, what’s Kingham’s upside?  Top 50 SP?  Higher?

3:27

Paul Sporer: Sure, top 50 eventually. I like Kingham a good bit, though Nick is definitely the resident Kingham hype man

3:28

Raider: How many more years does verlander have of being a top 25 SP?

3:29

Paul Sporer: 2

3:29

Tommy: Is clev top 25 dynasty pitcher in your mind?

3:31

Paul Sporer: Hmmmm, not quite. I’d eyeball it at more like top 35-40

3:32

seth: trying to decide between two trade packages (quantity vs quality). My unkeepable Kershaw for either A) $7 Adames+$7 E-Rod or B) $4 Newcomb (15 team 5×5 $260 budget, keepers for 2 years)

3:32

Paul Sporer: I’d take A for sure. I don’t think we know Newk will outdo E-Rod so get Adames as essentially a throw-in

3:32

Eric: What to make of Edwin Jackson? He certainly looks for real!

3:35

Paul Sporer: I’m such an Edwin Jackson fanboy. I’d looove to buy in, but let’s tap the brakes a bit, espec. w/a trip to Houston on the docket next week. 15-team streamer at best right now

3:35

Matt: Got Bour at $3 as a bench bat in a dynasty league. Every time I’m about to cut him because he’s not showing power, he goes on a very short power burst. Is it time to just drop him? If I do that, will he get traded to a contender and mash?

3:35

Paul Sporer: I’d hold. I still really like Bour and we can definitely hope for a deal out

3:36

RockyMtnHi: Is Blackmon’s 1st 3 months hiding an injury or a prolonged Goldschmidt type slump?

3:37

Paul Sporer: Slump? He’s pacing for 30 HR, 10 SB, 125 R, 76 RBI with a .275 AVG. It’s not his peak performance, but it’s within the range of outcomes. Last year was his best year, that’s not coming back

3:37

Parts + Gleyber: Am I crazy to be starting Zimmerman v. Texas in my AL Only today?

3:39

Paul Sporer: No, you’re not. The slider is working for Jordan Zimmermann and he’s throwing well. Deep league option for sure with some 2-start appeal in shallower ones

3:39

Jake Junis Priest: You guys were cracking jokes about my namesake on the pod. Is he toast? Should I trade for anything I can?

3:40

Paul Sporer: If you can get something, go for it, but I just don’t see Josh Tomlin Jr. drastically turning it around. He allows far too many homers

3:40

The Man With No Name: Do you buy the new Descalso?  He looks like a legit play in daily leagues (since he sits vs. lefties).  Projections aren’t optimistic.

3:43

Paul Sporer: Ya projections won’t capture changes from a 31-year old utilityman, but I do think there’s some viability here as he’s definitely selling out for power. Agreed on daily league outlook or NL only

3:43

Parts + Gleyber: Right when you get on the Kyle Gibson bandwagon, he implodes x2! Payback?

3:45

Paul Sporer: Haha, nah, he hasn’t cracked the top 40. If he’s mid-3.00s the rest of the way, that works

3:45

Tim: 10 team roto would you do Maeda for Moncada?

3:45

Paul Sporer: If I just need HR and SB and had SP surplus

3:46

Zock Jr.: Paul I find these chats to be better and better every week. You’re a mensch. My Carlos Santana for his Zach Eflin? I’m reloading in a 16-team h2h points league

3:47

Paul Sporer: Thanks so much! I think you can get more for Santana. He’s a points lg star. Eflin has impressed me enough to move him up the rankings and stay tuned to each of his starts, but I’m still maintaining some skepticism for ’19 and beyond

3:47

The Man With No Name: Jordan Hicks looks like a new pitcher since introducing a slider last month.  In non-saves leagues, can he be a top-40 RP?

3:51

Paul Sporer: Well the slider usage hasn’t really changed, it’s just actually a worthy pitch now. But ya, it’s become a force. He has 26 Ks in his last 19 innings and I could see top 40 even with just the occasional save

3:51

SparkyMcguffy: Is Muncy legit? I dropped him 2 weeks back after a few 0/4s and I now I feel reeeeaaal dumb.

3:53

Paul Sporer: Ya I definitely think there’s legitimacy here. Eyeballing his gamelog, I’m guessing you cut him around June 1st. Since then: 1.300 OPS, 13 HR in 115 PA. Obviouslyyyyy he won’t stay at that level, but I think he’ll hold a high .800s the rest of the way

3:54

Kevin: I am in a head to head league.  My offense should be really good, but I have a ton of guys struggling.  Harper, Dozier, Inciarte, Ozuna, Hoskins.  Somehow my team is consistently hitting .230 each week.  Counting stats are sometimes there.  I am just stuck and hope they turn this around right?

3:54

Paul Sporer: Ya, I think you have to ride it out with that group. Ozuna and Hoskins have already gotten going and I think the others will, too

3:55

RMR: Dozier coming out of this or is he finally toast?

3:56

Paul Sporer: Whattya mean finally toast? He’s been a fantasy superstar the last two years. It’s been rough, but I don’t see anything in the profile to make think he can’t come out of it with his patented 2H surge

3:56

Moate: BIG GAME JAMES DESERVES TO BE ON THE PITCHER LIST AND CAPSLOCK IS THE ONLY WAY I’M GOING TO BE ABLE TO MAKE THIS HAPPEN

3:56

Paul Sporer: Nah.

3:56

Mike: Is there something left to like about Luis Castillo?

3:58

Paul Sporer: He’s still missing bats….

3:58

Make Me A Winner: Do we still have faith Buxton is going to figure it out, or has that ship sailed well over the horizon?

4:00

Paul Sporer: Meh. I was already lowering his ceiling last year and I’ve obviously seen nothing this year to make me regret that. Didn’t Eno write something that kinda showed a potential Cameron Maybin/BJ Upton future and that’s looking more likely by the day

4:00

Rob: my j ram and Krush davis for his springer Mccullers and Lorenzo Cain. Who wins?

4:01

Paul Sporer: All trades depend on needs at this point. Judging off raw value is kinda worthless at this juncture in the season. So if you needed some pitching and speed, you accomplished that albeit at full market price

4:02

Nick: Jurickson Profar just wants to remind y’all that prospect growth is not linear

4:03

Paul Sporer: I was juuuust looking at his profile last night and I’m going to write about him next week

4:03

Kevin: I started following you on twitter a few weeks ago.  You made me google the real life name of squintz just to make sure.

4:03

Paul Sporer: lololol, that’s awesome

4:03

Kevin: Are you picking up Jenry Mejia in keepers leagues?

4:03

Paul Sporer: Nah, I’m not rushing to at all

4:03

Willie: Braun is giving me ulcers. Is he droppable in a 12 team redraft?

4:06

Paul Sporer: Ya, if you find someone you want more, you can cut him. He’ll probably then bounce on and off waivers a few times

4:06

PB: Is Nomar Mazara for real?

4:06

Paul Sporer: I’m a huge Mazara fan

4:06

Ron: Cueto worth the risk in fantasy?

4:06

Paul Sporer: Yes, I’m not freaking out over a bunk first start off the DL

4:07

Ron: Pham sure had a rough June.  Does he bounce back?  What kind of offensive player do you think he is moving forward?

4:08

Paul Sporer: I’d be surprised if he didn’t bounce back. His profile is still strong and he mentioned working through a mechanical flaw. I know the eyes are always a concern, but he’s usually open about when that’s impacting him

4:08

Ricky: Dynast league…..Acuna for Nola.  Who says no?

4:08

Paul Sporer: If anyone, probably the person with Acuna

4:08

Beef: Give me the gospel of Dereck Rodriguez…where did this dude come from?

4:08

Paul Sporer: Pudge Rodriguez’s balls

4:09

JFL19: Over/under:  Garrett Cooper 110 wRC+ end of year

4:10

Paul Sporer: Under

4:11

Paul Sporer: OK, y’all I gotta get going! Thanks for coming out. Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Snapchat (psporer), and Twitch (psporer24), where I will be streaming later this evening and talking plenty of baseball! Peace!



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Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and contributes to ESPN's Daily Notes. He is the purveyor of the SP Guide (on hiatus for '17). Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer, on Snapchat at psporer, and on Twitch at psporer24.

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Thanks for the chat!