Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – September 21st, 2018

Transcript is live!

1:32

Paul Sporer: Hello! How’s it going? Let’s talk some baseball!!!!

1:32

The Bringer of Rain: Would you recommend starting Bauer today?

1:33

Paul Sporer: Only if you’re good with a couple innings

1:35

Jim Leyland Palmer: Paul, do you have a good Christin Stewart comp?

1:38

Paul Sporer: Don’t really have a name comp, but he’s a low-AVG, big power bat. .220+ ISO with 30 HR potential

1:38

Matt: Final weekend of my H2H 5×5 league. He’s got 6 more SPs, I have 4, but I have decent leads in ERA/WHIP and K’s. You think Wainwright or Glasnow is a better pick up to bolster my chances?

1:39

Paul Sporer: I’d go Glasnow against the awful Giants lineup

1:39

Jamie: Need some Sporer good vibes for my final playoff day in my 30 Team H2H league, down 10 with Heaney going while hes got Q, Pivetta and Chacin. My offense needs to go OFF

1:39

Paul Sporer: C’mon offense!!!! You probably need one of those 3 to get torched, but all have shown that capability throughout the year so you have a shot

1:41

Fister?: Standard 12-team mixed roto. Would you keep Gary Sanchez or pick in the 4th round? Keep one of Corbin, Aroldis, or Encarnacion, or pick in the 5th round?

1:43

Paul Sporer: If it’s 2 C, I’d go Sanchez. In the 5th, I’d go Corbin.

1:43

Astro Boy: Will Josh James or Jesus Luzardo be part of their teams’ starting rotations come opening day 2019?

1:44

Paul Sporer: Possibly James with Keuchel a free agent, but Luzardo will be a call up IMO

1:44

Ted: Am I the only person around who thinks that Eloy will be better than Vlad Jr?

1:44

Paul Sporer: Probably not the only person, but definitely in the minority

1:44

Bennybadatroto: Do you think Urias will reach his post surgery upside (#2-3) someday? And traditionally have you been more successful predicting pitching or hitting breakouts?

1:46

Paul Sporer: The shoulder capsule issue he had is very severe and often spells doom, but he’s back so hopefully he can stabilize and be a full time start next year. I’d keep his ceiling more around mid-rotation as opposed to that frontline excellence he was projected for initially

1:46

Chief Wahoo: I’m feeling Clevinger as a top 10 SP next season. Too soon?

1:47

Paul Sporer: I won’t have him there, but I think he’ll be in my top 20 and when you’re that high, a top 10 season is in the range of outcomes

1:48

tacopocket: I have 1 dollar left to pick up a player in a keeper league.  who is the best dart throw for next year:   domingo Santana, buxton, sano, knebel, the dentist?

1:48

Paul Sporer: Your favorite of the two Twins. They will continue to get opportunities and still have real upside

1:49

My Mama Says: Any chance Cody Reed ever becomes of value? Showed some glimpses lately.

1:51

Paul Sporer: Definitely a chance, he was getting some buzz a couple years back and has a healthy 16% K-BB rate in his 39 IP of work. I think Cincy is putting some things together and I can see Reed as a useful $1 spec next year

1:51

Mayor Quimby: Keep Darvish or Rodon for next year (or neither)? Either would be my #3 behind Scherzer/Kershaw.  5×5 cats plus QS and Holds.

1:52

Paul Sporer: Hmm, that’s tough as a 3. I want to invest in Darvish, but on a discount and slotting as your 3 isn’t a discount IMO. Rodon just hasn’t missed enough bats to fit that 3 role, either. I’d pass. Prefer them more in the 4-5 range

1:54

Parts and Gleyber: I’m in full agreement with your more mixed take on Bieber. Lots of contact. Think it’s a problem he fixes in 2019?

1:55

Paul Sporer: I certainly think he attacks the issues, not sure if he fully fixes them. I’m interested in him and will have some shares, but think the hitability will breed some volatility

1:55

zurzles: Platoons don’t really work for fantasy but what about a platoon of two guys who hit RHP? In any given day there’s a solid chance one of them will be facing a righty. Thinking of ditching the 1B circus and using my last two draft picks on Ji-Man Choi and… someone. Ryan O’Hearn? Or a OF platoon involving Nimmo.

1:56

Paul Sporer: If you’re willing to commit, then it can be done. A lot of times those plans flop when the execution isn’t seen through. It’s hard to stay on top something like that all season so if you don’t keep up with it, you’re giving up something

1:56

Ghost of Ned Yost: Obligatory LeClerc hype train post

1:57

Paul Sporer: He’s been a monster. Just beware the ides of Knebel… ok that joke doesn’t really track, but just be mindful that it can implode when you walk guys at that clip

1:58

Parts and Gleyber: Seemed impossible a little while ago, but is there any chance Voit starts 2019 at 1st for the Yankees?

1:59

Paul Sporer: It’s not impossible, but I could see them getting Machado and moving Andujar across the diamond to keep Voit as more of a part-timer

2:00

Alex: Who should I start today between Pivetta, Heaney, and Gant?

2:00

Paul Sporer: Gant, Heaney, Pivetta in that order

2:00

Ham: For those of us out of it this year, are you noticing any interesting trends in these 2019TooEarly mocks?

2:01

Paul Sporer: Got a pod upcoming that deep dives the early rounds!

2:01

Paul Sporer: It’s looking like I won’t get Mondesi given his insane price

2:01

Scott TINSTAAPP: You think Astudillo has a shot at the starting gig next year in Minnesota?

2:02

Paul Sporer: Feels more like a utility guy, but I love the dude!

2:05

Dusty: Hi Paul. Can you share any updates on the MN Twins Wander Javier and his upside with us?

2:05

Paul Sporer: Best player ever upside

2:05

Mayor Quimby: I’m apparently behind on a nickname….who is “the dentist”?

2:05

Paul Sporer: Delino DeShields… DDS

2:05

Next Ace: Berrios or Buehler over the next 5 years?

2:05

Paul Sporer: Buehler

2:05

Scott TINSTAAPP: need power and RBIs for my last week in NFBC…you like Schebler or Donaldson?  I’m worried about Donaldson PT.

2:07

Paul Sporer: He’s play 4 of the last 5. If he plays the weekend, go JD

2:07

Matt: Any idea of the ETAs for Chris Paddack or Wander Franco? Both their stocks seem to be skyrocketing

2:12

Paul Sporer: Paddack May ’19, Franco is 2020 at the earliest, prob 2021

2:12

Rox: What are your thoughts on David Dahl? Top 30 OF? Will he at least get to play every day?

2:14

Paul Sporer: He could reach those heights as I do think he will FINALLY get a full go at a starting spot. Strikes me as someone whose offseason stock will soar

2:14

Scott TINSTAAPP: Wander Franco has a bit of Juan Soto profile to him but he’s with the Rays so can’t wait to see him up in the bigs in 2024

2:14

Paul Sporer: lololol 2025 just to make sure he’s OK

2:17

joromacsquibb: What do you expect to see from Yo Cespedes next year? (Assume he comes back in late May, maybe 300/350 PA)

2:18

Paul Sporer: .275/20

2:18

Scott TINSTAAPP: Do you think any of Beeks, Faria or Glasnow will be top 50 starters next year?

2:18

Paul Sporer: No

2:18

Corenzo Lain: Where does Mondesi get drafted next year in 5×5?

2:18

Paul Sporer: He has a 69 (nice… but not nice bc it’s WAY too high) ADP in Justin’s #2EarlyMocks. We discuss it at length on today’s pod (up later today)

2:18

Buck Martinez’s Wig: Pretty sure Glasnow doesn’t face the Giants?

2:19

Paul Sporer: Correct. Waino faces them… Waino against the awful Giants… sorry Matt (the guy who asked the Question)

2:19

Paul Sporer: My bad on that one

2:21

Slapshot: What do you think of Eno’s column over at The Athletic advocating for ending the fantasy baseball season before the regular season ends due to September baseball with expanded rosters, much like how most fantasy football seasons operate?

2:25

Paul Sporer: It’s not a terrible idea. I do hate roster expansion and think they desperately need to alter

2:26

joromacsquibb: Do you expect Dinelson Lamet to regain his spot in the starting rotation next year? Seems like an interesting player to watch with the high K potential

2:29

Paul Sporer: Ya but not til midseason

2:29

Justin: Is Luis Castillo back in your good graces for 2019?

2:29

Paul Sporer: Yes for sure. I’m not quitting him

2:30

NotGraphs Revivalist: Has there ever been a sub-.500 team to get more combined WAR out of their top two players than this year’s Angels? Simmons and Trout currently at 14.5

2:30

Paul Sporer: Throw in Ohtani’s 3 as well. That’s an interesting query. I can’t imagine there have been many such teams

2:30

Rhys Hoskins Jr.: Is Ryan O’Hearn a long-term viable first base option? Dude is slugging

2:31

NotGraphs Revivalist: Do you see Buehler’s strikeouts dipping significantly next year? SwStr% doesn’t seem to back his high K%

2:31

Paul Sporer: Think he’s definitely a strong side platoon guy (whoops didn’t hit enter hard enough)

2:35

Paul Sporer: Buehler does have a 13% SwStr since July 31st

2:36

Moelicious: Why did you take a SS in both rounds 2 and 3 in your mock draft?

2:37

Paul Sporer: Machado is 3B eligible and also they were the best players

2:37

joromacsquibb: For 2019 and beyond, rank Franmil Reyes, Adam Duvall, and Max Kepler (Standard 5 categories with OPS also)

2:37

Paul Sporer: Kep, Fran, Duvall

2:37

Matt: After seeing the strides Baez made this year, would we really be all that surprised if Buxton is a top-30 player next season?

2:38

Paul Sporer: Yes, I’d still be VERY surprised, tbh.

2:38

Matt: Will I be effed if Corbin is my only pitcher kept in a keep6 h2h points? I think I’m priced out of keeping Kershaw (would be 2/5 of my budget, have had him for 8 years!), and my only other pitcher on the bubble is Morton.

2:38

Paul Sporer: No I think pitching is wide open and you’re gonna wanna speculate anyway

2:39

Paul Sporer: brb dog break

2:43

Next Ace: Lopez a smart play v the Cubs today?

2:44

Paul Sporer: Smart? Probably not, but viable… yes

2:45

Austin Meadows: How much am I worth as a keeper in standard AL only? ($260 budget).

2:46

Paul Sporer: Like $8-10

2:47

Moelicious: Thoughts on Jeff McNeil for 2019?

2:47

Paul Sporer: An empty .280

2:47

E: Is Christian Yelich a first rounder next year?

2:47

Paul Sporer: Probably a firm 2nd rounder, but that means he’ll bounce into some 1sts

2:47

Gloria Esteban Loaiza: Porcello or Quintana next year?

2:47

Paul Sporer: Porcello

2:49

Liam: Is Brian Dozier a borderline guy at this stage? Or do we expect that he returns to form next season?

2:49

Paul Sporer: I’ll probably still buy in around pick 100-110

2:50

Quality Start: Hi, Paul. Looking for a quality start tonight. You prefer Gant (v Giants) or Wei-Yin Chen (v Reds)? Thanks.

2:51

Paul Sporer: I’ll go Gant

2:51

High 5 Ghost: Hi Paul

2:51

Paul Sporer: Yo

2:51

Gloria Esteban Loaiza: Flaherty or Berrios for 2019?

2:53

Paul Sporer: I’ll lean Flaherty

2:53

E: But what about Glasnow against Toronto? Would you start him?

2:54

Paul Sporer: Meh, you can. I’m not a huge fan, but he’s definitely been better with them

2:54

Scott TINSTAAPP: Who is Eno?  Never heard of that guy.

2:54

Paul Sporer: Some rando

2:54

Michael: Jake Lamb 2019- does he recover from his shoulder injury?

2:54

Paul Sporer: Hopefully!

2:54

Jim Lonborg: I am/was “The Dentist”, because I am literally a dentist now. But Delino can have it.

2:54

Paul Sporer: LOL, you’ve earned it more than he has

2:54

Scott: German Marquez top 25-30 SP next year?

2:58

Paul Sporer: That’s a little loftier than I want to project any Rockie, but I can go top 40-45

2:58

The Drizzle: Any chance you start Pivetta today? Chen instead?

2:58

Paul Sporer: Piv over Chen for me

2:58

Rox: Is David Peralta in the top 65-70 range next year? He’s quietly been amazing this year, but does it regress in 2019?

2:59

Paul Sporer: My boy Peralta!! I get made fun of by one of my homies for always hyping Peralta and I’m finally vindicated!! Think he’s more of a top 100 guy with a high around 75

2:59

bill mcgill: Streaming CC today?

2:59

Paul Sporer: Yes

2:59

Ghost of Ned Yost: In the early early mocks LeClerc isn’t getting drafted any where near as high as Knebel was heading into 18′ from what I’m seeing the earliest he is going in 18′ Colome or Familia. I 100% be setting the low pick on LeClrec in NFBC next year

3:00

Paul Sporer: Yes, that’s a fair point re: my be mindful of Knebel’s implosion when getting Leclerc.

3:00

PB: Thoughts on Mazara for 2019?

3:01

Paul Sporer: I’m still a fan. Still only gonna be 24 years old and he’s made more strides v. LHP. I still see a 30-100 bat here

3:02

Scooby: Just for fun:  Players you were most right and most wrong about this year?

3:02

Paul Sporer: Right: Albies, Wrong: Castillo

3:02

Advice from the Burgh: Something to keep in mind for your Sleeper and the Bust podcasts: Multiple people I’ve spoken with feel that you and your mates argue too much on the Pod regarding smaller facts, details and opinions. Constructive discussion is expected but calling each other out over mundane stuff is really distracting. Otherwise, it’s great stuff! Just some friendly advice from some big fans.

3:02

Paul Sporer: ‘ppreciate the feedback!

3:03

dave in slc: is freddy peralta someone you would throw a $5 bid at (our min) to take a shot on as good value for next yr in an nl only keeper? What about Luke Weaver?

3:03

Paul Sporer: If he has a rotation spot, I can see that for Peralta. More into Weaver. I was down on Weaver coming into the season bc of his sky high price, but now the price will sink and I’m back in

3:03

Felix Millan: How high will Bauer and Wheeler be on your 2019 rankings?

3:04

Paul Sporer: Top 25 and 40, respectively? I put a ? bc I haven’t done a run of 2019 rankings yet, but I will have one in October

3:08

HappyFunBall: Tonight only, start one sit one: Brantley (v Sale), Soto (v. deGrom)

3:08

Paul Sporer: Brantley since Sale will get a shortened outing again

3:12

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going. Going to edit & post the pod. Thanks so much for coming! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (psporer24), and Snapchat (psporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a great weekend!



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Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and contributes to ESPN's Daily Notes. He is the purveyor of the SP Guide (on hiatus for '17). Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer, on Snapchat at psporer, and on Twitch at psporer24.

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hscer
Member

Kepler? How long are we supposed to wait!? Or are you just lower on Franmil than I’d been reading into?

Ryan DC
Member
Member
Ryan DC

Kepler has a high walk rate, presumably that gives him an advantage in OPS leagues. In standard 5×5 leagues I’d go Franmil, personally