Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – September 29th, 2017

2:22
Paul Sporer: Yoooo!! It’s the final regular season chat for me!! Let’s talk some baseball

2:24
Dave: Name the fantasy-relevant pitcher whose 2018 ranking you are most unsure of right now. Why?

2:27
Paul Sporer: Luis Castillo. I love him, but want to be careful not to overrate him. The Luis Severino comps seem to forget that Sevvy flopped after his debut before exploding this year. Prospect growth isn’t linear!

2:27
Luke: Who’s winning the World Series?

2:28
Paul Sporer: No clue, of course. I think it’s a wide open playoff and should be a lot of fun, but I’ll go Nats. They’ll finally win a  series and then take off to the World Series

2:28
Moltar: Sigh, Quintana’s going to throw a gem against me in my insanely tight h2h points championship. Here’s trying to jinx him out of a no hitter at least

2:30
Paul Sporer: It’s only the fourth inning!

2:30
AD: With some good money on the line and 1 roster move remaining, do you like Chacin, Bridwell, or Mengden if I need to nab one more start this weekend? Bonus points for Wins and ERA

2:33
Paul Sporer: SF is one of the road spots where Chacin has actually pitched pretty well. I’d go the order you list bc Mengden in Texas is tough

2:33
Dat Dude: Up 6 points with 3 days left in Roto, just wanted to say thanks for the help all season!

2:34
Paul Sporer: You’re welcome! Good luck bringing it home!!

2:34
Al Gone Quinn: Tanaka ended the season with a gem. Where does he rank going into next season?

2:37
Paul Sporer: I’m not sure I can commit to better than top 50 right now before diving in. I’m going to run away from him as I’m sure many are, but I won’t overdraft him, either

2:37
YKnotDisco?!: Which hit mode do you use while playing MLBTS17? What about pitching?

2:37
Paul Sporer: Zone hitting and Analog pitching. Analog can be tough to get used to, but it’s well worth the growing pains

2:37
Gruf: Hi Paul

2:38
Paul Sporer: Hi Gruf

2:38
Ethan: I feel like Donaldson is going to be a massive value in drafts next season because people are going to see his line and not realize he missed a third of the year. His full season pace would leave him just shy of 50 home runs

2:39
Paul Sporer: I think he’s going to go no later than the 3rd round with regularity which is definitely nice for what he can do, but I’m not sure it’s a huge discount

2:40
Slapshot: It’s the end of the FY at work.  I should be focusing on work, instead I’m watching the Sporer chat before heading off to the Nationals game.  Thanks for making my Friday better, Paul!

2:40
Paul Sporer: hey no problem!

2:40
JhayDhee: Gonna put in the Events grind for that PS Verlander?

2:40
Paul Sporer: Hell yessss

2:45
AD: My league mates forced me to keep JD for $22 after the preseason injury (despite a clause in the league rules that says you can back out of keeping a player if injured in preseason), and now I just laugh as he destroys their hopes and dreams in the playoffs. Thanks for the help this year, Paul!

2:45
Paul Sporer: Hahahaha, karma for ignoring the rules!

2:45
Paul Sporer: Congrats on your success!

2:45
Moltar: Win or lose, I’m gonna be so sad next week when fantasy baseball is over :(

2:45
Paul Sporer: Always, but we’ve got a playoff coming and then offseason coverage!!!

2:45
khaaan: Thanks for the fantasy help all year.  I dropped Miggy for David Wright on the last day to give the Captain another ring.

2:46
Paul Sporer: Congrats!! I love it. Did your team vote to give him a full share of the winnings? :)

2:46
Gruf: +1 Moltar

2:46
Gruf: Hi Paul, 3 Keepers for next season who to select from Santana, Moncada,Buxton, Conforto,C Taylor,Bogaerts and Moose. Normal Cats+OPS. Help me Sporer, your me only hope.

2:51
Paul Sporer: I assume that’s Domingo. I mean, I think you gotta go Moncada and Buxton just bc of their upside and market value. You might consider trading one for a more established young bat if you see fit. After that, it’s kinda open. Hearing Conforto will be healthy and ready to go, but still tough to trust for me. I like Taylor’s diverse profile with positional flexibility. I’m leaning to him among this group.

2:52
Paul Sporer: As far as Bogaerts goes, I think he’ll be overlooked next year and can be drafted back at a nice price instead of kept. Santana had a tremendous season in line with Taylor’s from a HR/SB standpoint, but OF is so deep and he still Ks 30% of the time

2:52
Moltar: I can keep Jansen at roughly market rate. Even if there’s no surplus value there, is it worth it just to have an elite reliever locked down?

2:53
Paul Sporer: Ya I personally go for the upper tier of closers regularly. They can flop as any player or position can, but I like that advantage of not having to devote in-season resources to chasing saves

2:53
Minty: Luis Castillo, Albies, or Pham as my last keeper? Have OF depth and thinking flip Pham and keep Castillo

2:53
Paul Sporer: Ya I think you should do that. Don’t completely sleep on Albies, though. Pair him and Pham perhaps for a big piece

2:54
Ed: Yo Paul, I know it’s waaaay early to start thinking about next year, but in a 14 team H2H OPS league, you can keep two of Bellinger, Hoskins, Mookie, Bryant.  Who are you rolling with?

2:54
Paul Sporer: Mookie and Bryant still

2:54
Ed: I meant to say Freeman, not Hoskins.

2:54
Paul Sporer: I still prefer Mookie & Bryant, but Freef is right there

2:54
khaaan: Can we name the Gold Glove awards after Rafael Palmeiro now?  I love Mays, but this defies logic.

2:54
Paul Sporer: How many Cy Youngs did Cy Young win, though?!

2:58
Mark: Please help!! Im in the finals, huge fan of you and Eno btw, Who can I stream this weekend for K’s and to lower ERA and WHIP? I already picked up Gibson for tonight.

2:59
TJ: Remember when PS would engage in marathon chats, without regard to the state of his bladder or Charlotte’s? Ah the good old days!

2:59
Paul Sporer: Hahaha, those are much more viable in the throes of the season.

2:59
sabrtooth: Are you excited for episode FIVE HUNDRED of Sleeper and the Bust? Congrats!

2:59
Paul Sporer: I am!!!

3:00
Gallo-p Polls: Where do you see Gallo going in a 6×6 obp/slug league next year with 1b/3b/of eligibility? Top 40-50 hitter in that format this year

3:02
Paul Sporer: Ya he definitely rockets up the board. I could see a top 50 hitter

3:03
Sleepy: keep three in a category (OBP, SLG, R, RBI, SB-CS) H2H:  Arenado, Correa, Machado, T. Turner (difference in cost is negligible)

3:03
Paul Sporer: Hot damn, you have all 4? Nice. I think Machado is the odd man out as difficult as that is to say

3:04
E: Start Dan Straily tonight? I have a slim 1.55 era advantage to his 2.06 era so far this week. I’m losing by 12 Ks and 2 W. He has Odorizzi going tonight.

3:05
Paul Sporer: Ya I’d start him v. ATL

3:06
Moltar: Big shoutout to the baseball gods for that 5th inning from Quintana. And a bigtime sorry for anybody who has him on their team but I had to do it!

3:06
Paul Sporer: LOL, remember when you were calling no-no in the 4th inning?!

3:07
Moltar: I am completely out on Conforto. Maybe if the Mets had a functional medical staff I’d take a chance, but I feel like best case scenario is 2017 Brantley, and worst case is 2016 Brantley.

3:07
Paul Sporer: Ya I can totally understand the fears with any injured Met going forward

3:07
dee’s nuts: You think Sale actually makes his start on Sunday?

3:08
Paul Sporer: Ya I’d think so. It doesn’t hamper him for the playoffs at all

3:08
Jazzflute: Albies or Devers in a keeper league (OBP)?

3:09
Paul Sporer: I prefer Albies

3:09
Ton: Would you start Mengden, Tomlin, Pivetta or Sanchez on Sunday? Need Wins and K

3:10
Paul Sporer: I really don’t like Tomlin in general, but you need wins and he’s got the best backing.

3:10
James: Dexter Fowler fantasy relevant in 2018?  Keep-forever dynasty league with OBP.

3:11
Paul Sporer: Always relevant in OBP unless he stops walking 12+% of the time as he has forever

3:11
Brian: gausman, sonny, quintana, teheran, duffy. do i take it personally that they bent me over a barrel during finals week?

3:11
Paul Sporer: Ouchhh. The Gausmanning at PIT was especially savage

3:11
Jazzflute: Does Jake Lamb ever figure out lefties?

3:12
Paul Sporer: I won’t completely rule it out, but I’d never draft him EXPECTING it

3:12
khaaan: But every baseball fan is really part historian, and everyone is going to go back and look at how bad Mays was in the WS.  Mays was probably the greatest all-around player ever, but Reggie or Jeeter or Bob Gibson (if you want a non-yankee) is more deserving, because this is such a specific award.

3:12
Paul Sporer: Everyone is? …. I don’t think everyone is going to do that

3:13
Matt: Bellinger, Dozier, Turner, Springer, JD Mart, Beltre, Paxton. Can only keep four, points league. Who do you cut?

3:13
Paul Sporer: Pax, Beltre, Dozier

3:13
E: Anibal Sanchez at MIN or Daniel Mengden at TEX on Sunday? could be a big $$$ add!

3:13
Paul Sporer: Ouchhhh. Out of all these Sunday questions, I think yours is the first where I go for Mengden

3:13
Bob Villar: Kopech up by july next year?

3:14
Paul Sporer: I don’t know when guys are coming in-season let alone 6 months BEFORE said season starts

3:14
Dirty Sanchez: Listening to the latest Pod right now. When you said you were going to put on Ed Sheeran, I literally went to turn it off. Fuck Ed Sheeran.

3:14
Paul Sporer: You obviously missed the joke and wildly overreacted

3:14
Paul Sporer: For Sanchez –

3:15
Dirty Sanchez: Seriously, anyone who chooses to put on a song by Ed Sheeran should be shot. Just my opinion.

3:15
Dirty Sanchez: I am triggered by Ed Sheeran. I have problems

3:15
Paul Sporer: I can see that

3:16
Bob Villar: How long would you wait on Rosario next year to figure it out enough not to be a complete drain in an OBP league?  All star Break?

3:17
Paul Sporer: Amed Rosario? It depends how bad the drain is. If he’s looking Buxtony (early-season Buxton, of course… he apparently transforms in Aug/Sept) by early-May, I’d move on in most leagues

3:17
Bob: Baez, Puig, or Domingo Santana in a keep forever?  Standard scoring..

3:17
Paul Sporer: I love Puig, but it’s Baez or Santana for sure. As far as they go, you can kinda flip a coin. If you already have OF, then Baez

3:18
dee’s nuts: when attempting to figure out which hitters to start in a daily, what’s your process?  obviously, you’re going to start your studs, but if you’re stuck trying to figure out the last three guys on that days roster, what do you do?

3:18
Paul Sporer: skills, matchup, venue

3:18
Matt: Tommy Pham has been phenomenal this year, but how on earth do you project a guy like that for next season? Any thoughts on what a reasonable expectation for his numbers might look like?

3:20
Paul Sporer: He’s going to be one of the toughest projections next year for sure, but I completely believe in the skills. Health and his degenerative eye condition are concerns, but I buy skills so I’ll be investing

3:20
Steve: Who hits more home runs in 2018 – Bellinger or Hoskins?

3:20
Paul Sporer: Hoskins

3:20
Minty: Albies over Devers? Not hating just surprised. What do you see from Albies?

3:20
Paul Sporer: Speed!

3:20
Bob: What does a peak season for D Santana look like?  Over 30 homers, and 15 sbs?

3:21
Paul Sporer: This might be the peak. I could see more power, but I’m not sure the speed would stay in a 35+ HR season

3:21
Jazzflute: your prediction for Michael Fulmer next year?

3:23
Paul Sporer: I think he’ll be fine as the surgery isn’t supposed to be something that will greatly impact his 2018. I still think there’s K upside, too. The stuff is there. I’m not really changing my projection from this year. I still see a 185+ IP year with health

3:25
Hannah Hochevar: Looks like the trophy will prove elusive this season, but thanks for all your excellent, both in quality and enjoyability, fantasy advice this season!

3:25
Paul Sporer: You’re welcome, let’s regroup and get those titles in 2018!!

3:25
Matt W: How excited are you for Matt Olson next year?

3:25
Paul Sporer: Pretty intrigued to see what he can do in a full seaosn

3:25
Paul Sporer: season*

3:35
E: I will be avoiding Tommy Pham next year simply because of Stephen Piscotty, Randall Grichuck, Allen Craig, Matt Adams. Is Tommy Pham better than all these guys? Probably. Am I going to bet on it next year? Nope.

3:35
Paul Sporer: Won’t ever really go broke fading 29 year old breakouts, so I hear you

3:35
Moltar: deGrom had the same surgery last year that Fulmer is getting, and he even had Mets doctors doing it! I’m still in on Fulmer.

3:36
Paul Sporer: Exactly

3:36
Steve: Where would you rank Luis Castillo as far as dynasty SPs?  Top 10?  20?

3:36
Paul Sporer: That’s sooooo aggressive

3:36
Paul Sporer: top 30 is my limit right now

3:36
E: Should the wife an I go out to dinner tonight or pick something up?

3:37
Paul Sporer: Take her out! Eating in is great, but nice to get out every once in a while, too

3:37
Mark: Matt chapman or Evan longoria next year?

3:37
Paul Sporer: I’ll still go Longo

3:44
Moltar: If Freef qualifies at 3B next year, how high up the rankings is he? Second after Arenado?

3:44
Paul Sporer: I’d go for Ramirez ahead of him and probably Bryant, too

3:44
Steve: Acuna or Vlad Jr in a dynasty?  How close is it?

3:45
Paul Sporer: Acuna for me. I think he has decent advantage there, but no shade to Vlad Jr

3:45
CubFan: Think Mookie comes with a discount next year?

3:45
Paul Sporer: Late 1st-early 2nd

3:45
Dirty Sanchez: DeGrom shut down for the season with gastroenteritis. LOLmets

3:45
Paul Sporer: haha

3:45
CubFan: What do you expect from Tim Beckham and Marwin Gonzalez in 2018? Repeat, regression, another step forward? Wondering if we saw a career year out of Marwin. Also wonder if he’s a starter or just a super UT.

3:48
Paul Sporer: I really like Marwin, but I gotta figure he comes back a bit. Beckham won’t put a whole season of his Baltimore work up, but I think he’ll be solid for a full season

3:48
CubFan: Would you pay $35+ for either Sale or Kluber next year in a 12 team 5×5 H2H AL league….$260 team salary? And are Severino or Carrasco good alternatives if one can get them for less than $25.

3:49
Paul Sporer: Yes, I’d pay that top dollar for them. If those guys are coming under $25, I’m in

3:49
Al Gone Quinn: Almost nothing better than going out to eat with the wife on a Friday night.

3:49
Paul Sporer: Word

3:49
CubFan: Does Jordan Montgomery build on this year or primed some regression in his sophmore year?

3:50
Paul Sporer: I think he can build on it. I really like J Mo. He’s got the stuff to  be even better than this 3.96 ERA

3:50
Steve: Do you believe in resetting keeper/dynasty leagues every 5 years or so? Sometimes things get stagnant

3:51
Paul Sporer: I’m not in any dynasty leagues. As far as my keeper leagues, there are rules in place to prevent stagnation

3:51
Mark: Is Jon Gray an ace if you take him out of Coors? His ERA compared to his FIP is ridiculous, so unfair

3:51
Paul Sporer: Oh ya, I think getting him out of Coors would definitely push him up

3:53
Paul Sporer: OK yall, I gotta get going! Thanks for a great season of chats!!! I will continue chatting in the offseason, a week off here and there, but stil consistent. Follow me on Twitter (sporer), Snapchat (psporer), and Twitch (psporer24) where I stream MLB The Show and talk baseball regularly. I’ll also be streaming a wildcard game (well, you’ll have to watch it on your own TV, but we’ll be chatting and discussing the game). Thanks!!



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Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and contributes to ESPN's Daily Notes. He is the purveyor of the SP Guide (on hiatus for '17). Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer, on Snapchat at psporer, and on Twitch at psporer24.

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Lewis Brinson in Milwaukee outfield in 2018?