Paul Sporer Chat – 8/3/18

Check out the transcript below!

2:34

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone!! Thanks for coming out!

2:36

Jed: Better keeper going forward: Mikolas or Stripling?

2:36

Paul Sporer: I prefer Strip

2:36

Elvin: Mallex Smith a 10-team play for the SB-needy?

2:36

Paul Sporer: If you’re starving, yes

2:36

Lars: So we can move on from Jose Martinez in 10-team, right?

2:36

Paul Sporer: Yes, he’s just not playing enough and wasn’t traded

2:37

Melvin: Okay to panic with Joey Votto, right?

2:37

Paul Sporer: If you want, but what are you really going to do about it? The power hasn’t been there, but it’s not at all actionable

2:37

Jimmy: Of this group of new/fringe closers, rank in order of most likely to help my squad for ROS: Givens/Yates/Leclerc/Fry/Tepera/Clippard

2:38

Paul Sporer: Yates, Leclerc, Givens, shoot me

2:38

Brad: Andy Miller or Devniski for holds ROS?

2:39

Paul Sporer: Coin flip really. I guess I’ll go Devo since we haven’t really see Miller yet since he was just activated

2:39

Mike Honcho: Hey Paul,

2:39

Paul Sporer: hi!

2:39

BeefLoaf : Is Matt Albers still 86% donuts?

2:39

Paul Sporer: 88.2% at last update

2:39

Stan: Lemahieu or Odor ROS? (14 team roto with AVG and OPS)

2:39

Paul Sporer: Odor’s game yesterday was so insane. He’s been on one of late, I’ll take him.

2:40

Dan: Yo Paul. Love the podcast longtime listener back to the tower of power days. Anyway when can we expect August SP ranks. Need them for my trade deadline tomorrow lol

2:40

Paul Sporer: After this chat. Been agonizing over them all week and I apologize for being a few days later

2:40

Paul Sporer: I’m loosening the thresholds a bit bc the landscape is SO awful that I think you have to be more grateful for the boring guys like Porcello and Lester

2:40

Mike Honcho: How does it feel to be friends with celebrities (Bogman & Welsh)?

2:41

Paul Sporer: How much did you get to say that?

2:41

Paul Sporer: Orrr, are you the Welsh under a fake name? :)

2:41

Scott TINSTAAPP: Who will be best return ROS in 5×5?  Villar, Bader, the Dentist?

2:41

Paul Sporer: Bader! Not sure Villar runs in Baltimore

2:41

Kyle: Traded Correa, CMart, and Taillon for Sevvy, K Davis, and Bichette in a 12 tm keep 10 forever. I have Machado to play SS and my aces (Kersh and Kluber) are old so I wanted a younger ace. Did I do ok?

2:42

Paul Sporer: Ya, it’s OK. I’d prefer the ace hitter over pitcher in a keeper deal like this, but your reasoning is perfectly fine and KDavis stays underrated. Is Bichette a free minors keeper? Otherwise, not sure you can justify making him a top 120 guy

2:42

Rob: Robbie ray is a top ____ pitcher for the rest of season? Thanks!

2:42

Paul Sporer: Speaking of agonizing over the rankings….

2:43

Paul Sporer: Like 50ish. I ranked him solely on K accumulation this year and wish I’d have trusted my gut more and opened with like a 35-40 rank

2:43

Matt: What are you thoughts on Bumgarner vs Wheeler ROS? If I can gain value plus Wheeler, could Wheeler’s production be pretty similar?

2:45

Paul Sporer: I think they can be close, but I still favor Bumgarner. It’s MUUUUUCCCHHH closer than it was even a month ago, though

2:46

kyle gibson weed wacking service: I’m on my way, should be there while you’re recording your podcast

2:46

Paul Sporer: YOU WERE ALREADY HERE THIS MORNING!! (pod out later!)

2:52

Paul Sporer: test… cpu was freezing, sorry about that

2:52

Scott TINSTAAPP: in NFBC 12 team, you starting all these guys on two start weeks?  Joe Musgrove (@COL, @SFG), Drew Pomeranz (@TOR, @BAL), Marcus Stroman (BOS, TBR)

2:54

Paul Sporer: I want to vomit at that trio, espec. w/the matchups. I’d like to avoid ALL of them tbh. I think I’d rank em… open spot, a hitter, quit the league, Musgrove, Pomy, Stro

2:54

Kyle: Do you believe in Hamels ROS?

2:55

Paul Sporer: To a degree, yes. And not just bc of the 1 start we’ve seen in CHI. I just think he can be hi-3s, lo-4s w/Ks rest of year which is a godsend in this pitching landscape

2:55

awHALEnaw: Whaddup paul

2:55

Paul Sporer: HALE! how’s it goin man?

2:55

Kevin: Hey Paul! Who do you take between Heaney and Buehler next year, in a vacuum?

2:55

Paul Sporer: Buehler

2:55

Enrique: Should I go after Starlin Castro or DJ Lemahieu for the final season push? Roto- avg and ops

2:56

Paul Sporer: Hmm, gimme Castro

2:57

Pie: My keeper league had a Machado-Kluber trade a month ago, and it just came out that the keeper rights for the players were retained by their original teams. There wasn’t any precedence for this type of transaction, so there’s a bit of confusion on how it should be handled. What is your take on dealing with transactions with questionable legality?

2:58

Paul Sporer: Wait, so they dealt MM (let’s say Team A) for Klubes (Team B), yet Team A can still keep Klubes and B can keep MM? So they’re trading them back end of season? That’s whack IMO, but without an explicit rule, I think it has to stand and then you can put a rule on it next year

2:58

C mart: Am I worth holding onto? I’ve heard I miss 3-4 starts but there’s gotta be a chance the cards shut me down right? 10tm H2H categories

3:00

Paul Sporer: Can you not DL him? If not, then I can understand cutting him. It’s that time of year where if you’re out a few weeks, you’re a cut candidate

3:00

Salty: Paul – who do you think has a better chance of contributing (if either) in August and September – Nick Kingham or Fernando Romero?  And if either gets the call, would you drop Weaver for him?

3:01

Paul Sporer: Think we’ll see both back up at some point. I prefer Kingham b/w the two, but neither over Weaver

3:01

Henhouse: Just lost Pham in a 12 team mixed any sleeper replacements

3:01

Paul Sporer: No idea who’s on your wire

3:01

Me, me, pick ME!: Where

3:01

Paul Sporer: here

3:02

Me, me, pick ME!: I have no idea if this leads baseball, but Velasquez has taken 3 no-no’s into the 6th so far this year. Tonight he makes it 4. That is all. . . .

3:02

Paul Sporer: That’s interesting…. he’s got electric stuff so I’m not even shocked by that

3:02

Paul Sporer: Kyle Gibson is back… weed whackin like crazy

3:02

Devonte: Where’s your pitcher rankings

3:02

Paul Sporer: After this chat, which is why we’re on a tight hour today

3:02

Kakie Bryan: Thanks for your take on Bader and O’Neill on the pod. Sounds like you’re higher on Bader, but is O’Neill the pickup in an OBP & SLG league?

3:03

Paul Sporer: No problem! And yes in that league format, it’s O’Neill. Bader was my preference in standard cats. bc of speed, but OBP/SLG leans O’Neill. Like both generally speaking

3:03

Aaron: Any reason to buy the Homer Bailey resurgence after the DL stint?

3:04

Paul Sporer: Slightly intrigued bc I’ve been a fan forever, but I can’t really go for him in anything but deeep leagues. Another good one or two and he starts to get some 15 and maybe even 12-team appeal just bc the landscape is so wrecked right now

3:04

Paul Sporer: Of course guys like Bailey are why it’s wrecked bc they give you 2-4 good starts and then ruin ALLLL of the good work with an 8 ER bomb

3:06

kyle gibson weed wacking service: pham broken foot per rotoworld

3:06

Paul Sporer: or as Vlad Sedler said phractured phoot

3:06

Dexy’s Midnight Fowlers: Worried about Max Muncy’s playing time? He’ll lose some 2B starts with Dozier in the loop, and he is in a bit of a slump (which is now quite poorly timed).

3:07

Paul Sporer: Not really. Taylor is the big loser here

3:08

Guest: Start both Freeman and Acuna vs. deGrom or hedge and just go with Acuna? Seasons hangs in the balance of the next 3 days! Thanks Paul!

3:08

Paul Sporer: Did you just ask about starting Freddie Freeman………..

3:08

Paul Sporer: did

3:08

Paul Sporer: that

3:08

Paul Sporer: just

3:08

Paul Sporer: happen

3:08

Paul Sporer: I’d start both btw

3:09

Watty: ROS for 2B…. Chris Taylor or Ian Kinsler?  Position flexibility not a factor.  CBS points league where K’s are negative points.

3:09

Paul Sporer: Leaning Kins bc as I mentioned earlier, Taylor is the biggest PT loser with Dozier going to LA

3:10

Pine Needles: Over under .250/.850 AVG/OPS for Cody Bellinger ROS?

3:10

Paul Sporer: Over by a bit

3:10

Rouse: Points league, ROS – Zack Godley, Marco Gonzalez or Mike Clevinger

3:11

Paul Sporer: Clev then Godley/Marco basically tied

3:11

Dexy’s Midnight Fowlers: How worried are you about Klubot? He came back insanely strong from injury last season but this time feels different.

3:14

Paul Sporer: Worried long term bc of that weak ass fastball but I think he’ll be fine ROS

3:14

Dexy’s Midnight Fowlers: Finally gave up on Zunino and traded to acquire Grandal. Approve?

3:14

Paul Sporer: For sure!

3:14

Gest : Has Gregory Polanco made any real changes that you’ve noticed to spark this extended hot streak he’s on?

3:15

Paul Sporer: Ya he’s definitely committed to power with a heavy flyball lean

3:15

Scott TINSTAAPP: You think you’ll ever bring the SP Guide back?  Or gonna stick with fantasy black book?

3:16

Paul Sporer: I’m trying to map out this offseason to see if I can do it this year in fact

3:16

kyle gibson weed wacking service: start Severino today?

3:16

Paul Sporer: Absolutely

3:16

Spo-No!: Love your work, please don’t take this the wrong way. But–is “Tyson Ross Is a Must Start” this year’s “Trade Almost Anyone to Get Eric Thames Right Now” call?

3:17

Paul Sporer: Not at all, tbh. It’s exactly why I update the SP ranks regularly and why pretending SP ROS rankings are useful is just stupid. I felt completely comfortable w/him as a must-start during those early months, he’s regressed and now isn’t that anymore

3:17

Scott TINSTAAPP: I added Villar in there because of this:

 

Steve Melewski
@masnSteve

 

Showalter asked if Jonathan Villar has a green light to steal said – “What’s greener than green?”
2 Aug 2018
3:17

Paul Sporer: Woo!

3:17

Matty P: Traded Posey, Clevinger, and Nimmo for Stanton and ya boy Gibson in a 12 team redraft. seem fair?

3:17

Paul Sporer: Ya I  have no issues w/that assuming needs align and all

3:19

Jessica : Votto is 4th in the xwOBA leaderboards despite having the 23rd best wOBA. Can you explain this discrepancy? Has he been unlucky? Is it due to faults in the xwOBA calibration?

3:19

Paul Sporer: Elite plate skills and an uncharacteristic 10% HR/FB rate are likely the explanation

3:19

Jed: Any concern with Bryant’s shoulder in 2019 and beyond?

3:20

Paul Sporer: Always worry about shoulder injuries for power

3:20

Tim: Good time to pick up eloy u think he will be up soon

3:21

Paul Sporer: Ya I like speculating now bc once he’s called up, it’ll be a huge price surge

3:22

Cary: Gibson or Scherzer?

3:22

Paul Sporer: lol

3:22

Guest: Better ROS Bieber or Castillo?

3:22

Paul Sporer: Castillo

3:22

Kosmo: How do you best deal with punks who ruin the league by making unfair/fraudulent trades.

3:22

Paul Sporer: Boot ’em and undo ’em if they’re colluding

3:22

Jake Junis Priest: Willie Calhoun can still be a sexy beast, right? Big 2019?

3:23

Paul Sporer: Oh for sure and he’ll be priced to buy bc so many ppl freak out if someone doesn’t click instantly

3:24

Zack: Just lost Pham. Harrison Bader or Tyler O’Neill?

3:24

Paul Sporer: Bader

3:24

St. John: When is Max Kepler going to put it together – hitting RHP & LHP?

3:24

Paul Sporer: Never?

3:25

Paul Sporer: I’m kidding, he’s just 25, but I don’t think it’s anything close to a guarantee. There’s definitely some upside and the fact that he’s doing some things vL this year is encouraging

3:25

Tiger: Is Pomeranz droppable in 12-team dynasty with 50 roster spots?

3:25

Paul Sporer: I don’t think so

3:25

Parts + Gleyber: Would you start David Price (AL only) vs. the Yankees this weekend? I know there’s no Judge, but still…

3:25

Paul Sporer: Not if you don’t have to, I’m sitting him in my H2H

3:26

Pine Needles: Where do you draft Juan Soto next season?

3:26

Paul Sporer: Top 75ish right now, but I can’t imagine I’ll get him at that pick. He’ll likely go Top 50

3:26

yojiveself: forced to drop one – andujar or moustakas?

3:27

Paul Sporer: Keep Andujar if you need AVG and Moose if you need pop

3:28

Phuku: How are you feeling about Jon Gray these days?

3:28

Paul Sporer: Still scared of Coors, but he’s a must-roster and someone ya gotta start more often than not bc of his skills and the ugly SP landscape

3:28

Paul’s Friend: Hey buddy.  Hope all is well.  My Votto and Upton for his Freeman and Berrios a fair deal?

3:29

Paul Sporer: Hi! I’m doing well and yes this is fair

3:29

No Keeps Til Brooklyn: Not sure what you mean about Votto being actionable… Are you saying he should be dropped or started?

3:29

Paul Sporer: Paul Sporer
2:37 If you want, but what are you really going to do about it? The power hasn’t been there, but it’s ***not at all actionable***

3:30

Spliff: Cole Kalhoun or Jake Bauers worth a pickup to replace Pham?

3:30

Paul Sporer: switch that C and K and then pick up Calhoun!

3:30

Nelson: Is there any strategy to use with these hybrid  Rays pitchers?

3:30

Paul Sporer: Their best use is starts-capped H2H leagues bc they aren’t eating your starts and can give you 3-5 good IP w/a possible W

3:31

Buff: 12 team NL only. Best for 2019, Ian Happ or Paul DeJong?

3:31

Paul Sporer: They’re close IMO, I’ll go Happ

3:31

Ben: Hey Paul, you dropping Eflin for either of Rodon or Gausman?  Thanks!

3:32

Paul Sporer: Rodon, I guess. The trio isn’t too far away, so ride the hot hand w/Rodon

3:32

OddBall Herrera: I am highly tempted to cut bait on Haniger, he of the 1 HR since mid June, and stream that spot with guys like Calhoun/O’Neill/Pederson.  Odds I’m going to regret this?

3:33

Paul Sporer: Odds aren’t that high that you’ll regret it and I’m cool cutting him for any of the 3. I’ll take em in your order listed. As much as I like Joc, he’s straight up platoon

3:33

Jay: I think your response to Pie assumes there is a period where trades are permitted prior to declaring keepers. If there is such a period, then the agreement makes some sense. If there is no such period, then it seems outside the rules?

3:34

Paul Sporer: I guess I’m just uncomfortable w/it being agreed to beforehand. What if Kluber needs TJ and the guy who got Machado now says he doesn’t wanna do the re-swap later or something like that? It just irks me a bit

3:34

No, Your Name: How extreme do you get in Keeper trades fora potential win it all season.  Is Kyle tucker too much to pay for someone like EE?

3:35

Paul Sporer: I’m all about winning so if I think the move does the trick, I’m open to it. If you need EE’s power to greatly improve your chances, I can get behind it. Do an honest assessment of your team and chances and go from there. I’d definitely put someone like Tucker on the block, though, if you haven’t, bc  you could get something offered better than EE

3:35

Friendly Neighborhood Spiderman: Is Pham droppable now?

3:35

Paul Sporer: If you can’t DL him, ya I’d say so

3:35

Friendly Neighborhood Spiderman: My Upton for his Thor….Thoughts?

3:36

Paul Sporer: Didn’t you just lose Pham, though? Fair deal in a vacuum

3:36

PSpore FanClub: Any underrated pitchers you expect to have a good to great ROS?

3:36

Paul Sporer: Don’t have names off the dome, but SP ranks out this afternoon

3:36

Jordan : Why the Musgrove hate? Trending well…

3:36

Paul Sporer: Do I hate him?

3:36

Paul Sporer: Oh the 2-start thing… he’s going to Coors

3:36

Paul Sporer: Generally, I’ve been quite pro-Musgrove, but the at COL got me

3:36

El Zilcho: You not buying Buck’s statement about Villar’s green light? Prefer him or Chris Taylor ROS in a 12-team obp league?

3:37

Paul Sporer: No that was a positive woo!, I’m in and I’ll take him over CT3

3:37

Regarding c mart: I have josh Donaldson and Gary “king of bapip” Sanchez on the DL currently. Would you hold Martinez over one of them? Thanks!

3:37

Paul Sporer: Nah, hold the hitters

3:37

Paul Sporer: Patty V, you repeated your question 3 times… it’s not getting answered, my dude!

3:38

Henry: Who is your favorite player to pitch with in Diamond Dynasty?

3:38

Paul Sporer: Starter: Mike Scott, Reliever: Alex Wood Flashback

3:38

Det. Jake Peralta: Have Cody allen, knebel, and Yates. Is Allen droppable for a streamer next week (prob Gibson)? Meepmorpzeep

3:38

Paul Sporer: Ya that works for me

3:38

Tones: Aaron Nola for Mookie Betts. Should I pull the trigger? H2H Points league. During the two playoff weeks Nola has potential starts versus the hapless Marlins. Mookie would be replacing Odubel Herrera.

3:39

Paul Sporer: I like the context inclusion and it makes Nola enticing, but I still gotta go Betts

3:39

Scott TINSTAAPP: Nice about SP guide possibility!  All good whatever you decide, appreciate all the work pal

3:39

Paul Sporer: Thanks! I’m actually going to start working on things in September this year (I usually wait til Oct) and I think the extra month might create the opening to do our profiles here, Black Book, HQ capsules, and SPG

3:39

Houstoned: Kemp or Marisnick?

3:40

Paul Sporer: Kemp

3:40

OddBall Herrera: Max Kepler?!  More like Max NotKeeperler, am I right?  Hahaha…because he’s not good enough…to…keep…no one?  Ok I’ll stop.

3:40

Paul Sporer: lol #gotem

3:40

Pall Mall: Kole Calhoun or Ian Desmond ROS

3:40

Paul Sporer: I’ve been buying Desmond all year just bc EVERYONE thinks he’s going to meltdown and he just keeps dominating in people’s faces. I get that his profile is weird as hell, but he’s producing like crazy

3:41

Alejandro: Do you stand or sit to wipe?

3:41

Paul Sporer: I lay down actually

3:41

Rocco: Is Kole Calhoun for real — or just ride the wave?   How would you rank K. Calhoun, Avisail Garcia and Tyler O’Neill for my last Util spot?  Thanks a lot

3:41

Paul Sporer: Just ride the wave, and I’d rank em as you have em

3:41

Paul Sporer: Calhoun is definitely the main man of this chat lol

3:41

Dillan: You probably already answered this but what has been wrong with Sevy?

3:41

Paul Sporer: Honestly, I can’t find anything that seriously worries me. Looks like a blip of poor starts as opposed to something serious

3:42

JD Martin: Should Bieber be untouchable (trade talk-wise) in a K/9, BB/9 league?  Bat missing has been much better than expected

3:42

Paul Sporer: No, not untouchable. Desirable, sure, but definitely not untouchable

3:42

Scott: Joc Pederson: new Seth Smith?

3:42

Paul Sporer: Good comp

3:42

Darth Sabean: Pham phractured his phoot? Phabulous. I’m ph***ed.

3:42

Paul Sporer: :applauds:

3:42

Saul Pporer: What’s your favorite stat for analyzing fantasy hitters in a points league (i.e. wRC+, wOBA, OPS, etc)

3:42

Paul Sporer: Points scored

3:43

Paul Sporer: ;)

3:43

Paul Sporer: Jokes aside, I don’t look at one single metric. I probably start with wOBA (bc I don’t need Coors neutralized down or AT&T neutralized up when assessing fantasy viability) and go from there

3:44

Paul Sporer: OK, y’all want these SP rankings so I gotta roll

3:44

Paul Sporer: Thanks so much for coming! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (psporer24), and Snapchat (psporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later tonight and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy baseball there. Have a great weekend!



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Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and contributes to ESPN's Daily Notes. He is the purveyor of the SP Guide (on hiatus for '17). Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer, on Snapchat at psporer, and on Twitch at psporer24.

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