Polanco, Johnson, Roberts, Espinosa: 2B Showdown

Recently, I did a little work looking at the owned % and the likely hood that a player would be starting on a fantasy depending on the league size. Using Yahoo ownership rates, 90% ownership is probably the starting level for 10 team leagues, 85% for 12 team leagues and 10% for 20 team leagues. Originally, I figured I could just go down the ownerships of each position and get the players on the edge, but multiple positions eligibilities caused some confusion, especially for IF positions like 2B, SS and 3B. The following is the 2B who rank around the cutoff value for 12 team leagues, 85% and below.

The 4 players I will be looking at today are Placido Polanco, Kelly Johnson, Ryan Roberts and Danny Espinosa. Here are their ownership rates and stats so far this year:

Player % Owned H/AB* R HR RBI SB AVG
Plácido Polanco(Phi – 2B,3B) 83% 86/298 32 4 39 3 0.289
Kelly Johnson(Ari – 2B) 76% 61/286 43 13 34 8 0.213
Ryan Roberts(Ari – 2B,3B,OF) 73% 62/244 43 10 33 11 0.254
Danny Espinosa(Was – 2B) 70% 68/284 40 15 48 9 0.239

After looking at the these 4, here is the order I would prefer to own/play them:

1. Danny Espinosa: He has the combination of speed (9 SB) and power (15 HR) that the others don’t have. His average is not ideal, but it is expected considering his BABIP (0.264) and K% (25%). It would be nice to see him make some more contact, but his combination of speed and power from 2B is tough to find.

2. Ryan Roberts: The 30 year old is having a career season and I would ride to the end of it. He is already at career highs in SB and HR only half way through the season. His triple line slash of 0.254/0.341/.439 isn’t far this season are that his preseason ZIPS projection of 0.251/0.3290.400. Ryan was finally given the opportunity to play every day and he is taking full advantage of it.

3. Kelly Johnson: He is performing like Danny Espinosa lite. Power and speed, but can’t hit for average at all. His BABIP has risen from 0.227 at the end of March to 0.267, which has helped his AVG some. The main reason for the low AVG is that every third at bat he is striking out. If/once he begins to make contact on a more regular basis, he will instantly become more valuable.

4. Placido Polanco: He has hit for good AVG, but that is about it. He is showing little speed (5 SB) and less power (3 HR). This is a case where the abilities he has, doesn’t translate to fantasy baseball. If you need help with AVG and have plenty of speed and power, he may be worth acquiring.

As a whole, each of these 2B can make decent contributions to a fantasy team. Out of these 4 though, I will take Espinosa, which currently has the lowest ownership rate.



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Jeff writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first season in Tout Wars, he won the H2H league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.


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ericd
Guest

I’ll take Ackley over all of them.

GTW
Member
GTW

You will lose.

Lewis
Guest
Lewis

Don’t think so. He’s a great young hitter.

Plus he has a solid chance to lead the league in Handsome/9.

Phillie697
Guest
Phillie697

Are you serious? Once Espinosa matures and starts striking out less and put better contact on the ball, he’s literally the next Chase Utley, although perhaps not quite as good defensively (that said his defense isn’t too shabby to begin with). You’d take Ackley over that? Really?

He is what Dan Uggla was suppose to have been this year, except with much more speed.

NBH
Guest
NBH

Espinosa’s issue is that he has an uppercut swing with a hole in it. That’s why his contact rates are poor (high K%) and why he has a terrible LD%. Take Espinosa for the 20/20, but .240 is his ceiling with that swing. Nothing wrong with that in this low scoring environment.

Slevin Kelevra
Member
Slevin Kelevra

Ackley could be the next Chase Utley, Espinosa just the next Uggla with speed

As you said

Eric Dykstra
Guest

Ackley, right now, is better than Espinosa. Walks more, strikes out less, and has better contact when he does hit the ball.
Espinosa has more power, and that’s it. “Once he matures and strikes out less” is pure speculation. ZiPS has him projected at a 28% K rate for the rest of the season compared to Ackley at 16.5%.

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