RotoGraphs Ridiculously Early Mock Draft: Rounds 16-23

Here are the first five rounds, here are another five rounds, here are the last five rounds, and now here are the final rounds of the draft. It took us six weeks, across the holidays, to do this draft. Slow drafts suck. Your RotoGraphs writers are dedicated men.

But the final rounds are my favorite. You’ll never find me groaning about them — the cost is so low here that you can finally take shots on random guys you like, and those guys are always the most fun.

I mean, how can you dislike rounds that include Jon Niese, Will Middlebrooks, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Seager, Josh Rutledge, Jason Kubel, Lance Berkman, Mike Fiers, Alejandro De Aza, Billy Hamilton, Shelby Miller and Wil Myers? They’re all so interesting!

181 16.1 Jackie Peanuts Josh Beckett
182 16.2 Wade Jon Niese
183 16.3 Sarris Wil Myers
184 16.4 Sanders Ryan Dempster
185 16.5 Bender Dayan Viciedo
186 16.6 J Zim Hiroki Kuroda
187 16.7 Zarzycki Pedro Alvarez
188 16.8 Harrison Wade Miley
189 16.9 Wiers Jedd Gyorko
190 16.10 Cwik Trevor Cahill
191 16.11 Swydan Grant Balfour
192 16.12 Petriello Todd Frazier
193 17.1 Petriello Alfonso Soriano
194 17.2 Swydan Will Middlebrooks
195 17.3 Cwik Ryan Vogelsong
196 17.4 Wiers Hisashi Iwakuma
197 17.5 Harrison Alejandro de Aza
198 17.6 Zarzycki Anthony Rizzo
199 17.7 Jeff Zim Trevor Plouffe
200 17.8 Bender Kyle Seager
201 17.9 Sanders Tommy Hanson
202 17.10 Sarris Starling Marte
203 17.11 Wade Scott Baker
204 17.12 Jackie Peanuts Tom Wilhelmsen
205 18.1 Jackie Peanuts Cameron Maybin
206 18.2 Wade Glen Perkins
207 18.3 Sarris Trevor Bauer
208 18.4 Sanders Jayson Werth
209 18.5 Bender Josh Rutledge
210 18.6 J Zim Torii Hunter
211 18.7 Zarzycki Jason Grilli
212 18.8 Harrison Emilio Bonifacio
213 18.9 Wiers Brandon League
214 18.10 Cwik Sergio Santos
215 18.11 Swydan Marco Estrada
216 18.12 Petriello Kenley Jansen
217 19.1 Petriello Kyle Lohse
218 19.2 Swydan Justin Ruggiano
219 19.3 Cwik Derek Holland
220 19.4 Wiers Alex Avila
221 19.5 Harrison Brandon Beachy
222 19.6 Zarzycki Casey Janssen
223 19.7 Jeff Zim Joe Blanton
224 19.8 Bender Steve Cishek
225 19.9 Sanders Jonathan Broxton
226 19.10 Sarris Casey Kelly
227 19.11 Wade Chris Carpenter
228 19.12 Jackie Peanuts Alexi Ogando
229 20.1 Jackie Peanuts Al Albuquerque
230 20.2 Wade Mark Reynolds
231 20.3 Sarris Jean Segura
232 20.4 Sanders Chris Archer
233 20.5 Bender Carlos Pena
234 20.6 J Zim Vinnie Pestano
235 20.7 Zarzycki Jaime Garcia
236 20.8 Harrison Brandon McCarthy
237 20.9 Wiers Ernesto Frieri
238 20.10 Cwik John Axford
239 20.11 Swydan John Jaso
240 20.12 Petriello Jason Kubel
241 21.1 Petriello Adam LaRoche
242 21.2 Swydan Daniel Murphy
243 21.3 Cwik Denard Span
244 21.4 Wiers David Robertson
245 21.5 Harrison Rafael Soriano
246 21.6 Zarzycki Jed Lowrie
247 21.7 Jeff Zim Kelvim Herrera
248 21.8 Bender Jason Vargas
249 21.9 Sanders Lance Berkman
250 21.10 Sarris Cory Luebke
251 21.11 Wade J.J. Hardy
252 21.12 Jackie Peanuts Alexei Ramirez
253 22.1 Jackie Peanuts Kevin Youkilis
254 22.2 Wade Dee Gordon
255 22.3 Sarris Kyuji Fujikawa
256 22.4 Sanders Michael Young
257 22.5 Bender Andy Pettitte
258 22.6 J Zim Jason Hammel
259 22.7 Zarzycki Clay Buchholz
260 22.8 Harrison Bruce Rondon
261 22.9 Wiers Sean Marshall
262 22.10 Cwik Chris Tillman
263 22.11 Swydan Andrew Cashner
264 22.12 Petriello Chad Billingsley
265 23.1 Petriello Bud Norris
266 23.2 Swydan Mike Zunino
267 23.3 Cwik Justin Morneau
268 23.4 Wiers Mike Fiers
269 23.5 Harrison Billy Hamilton
270 23.6 Zarzycki Carlos Marmol
271 23.7 Jeff Zim Danny Duffy
272 23.8 Bender Carlos Quentin
273 23.9 Sanders Jordan Pacecho
274 23.10 Sarris Shelby Miller
275 23.11 Wade Aaron Hicks
276 23.12 Jackie Peanuts David Hernandez

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With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.

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Two things stuck out to me.

1.) How late Rizzo went. MDC has him solidly in the 50-100 range, but in this draft he’s going after the likes of Todd Frazier?

2.) The order of RP’s taken. Given a lot of bullpen situations are up in the air right now, but the progression just seems really odd.


i wonder if the slow draft format limits the likelihood of a run at a position. I would expect a live draft with this exact same crowd, now that a lot of teams’ rosters are closer to being secure, would provide completely different results in the last 2/3 of the draft at least.

wily mo

yeah… if somebody wants to explain how and why wilhelmsen and sergio santos are going within a round of each other, i mean, i’ll listen, but

wily mo

or all of santos, alburquerque, pestano and frieri – none of which are closers or were expected to be closers during the holidays (madson signed in november) – going ahead of axford… i get that axford had a dicey season, but that’s still… and santos didn’t? it’s really weird


To the dismay of everyone else in your leagues, I am going to suggest that you take a good look at Todd Frazier’s numbers and position eligibility. I know your point is really about Rizzo going late, but Frazier also may have gone late.

As for MDC’s rankings right now, they are soooo reflective of their initial rankings at this point because of the high percentage of computer drafted teams that default to the preset rankings that they cannot be trusted. We should all really wait a month or so, or hope that someone does an analysis of their preset rankings, before considering the numbers reliable. They also still have Giancarlo as Mike. A minor issue, but if something that small is left unattended to, what else is sloppy behind the scenes at MDC?


Well just by a quick glance at the Fans projections so far:

Frazier: 72 R, 78 RBI, 22 HR, 6 SB, .268

Rizzo: 87 R, 104 RBI, 28 HR, 5 SB, .284

One of those guys is borderline waiver wire material, the other is 3rd round type numbers. Given, Rizzo’s projection may be a bit optimistic, and Frazier has flexibility–but there’s a huge gap in performance here.


Fans, as their namesake suggests, are derived from fans and come from a people selecting a statistic range from a handful of stat categories which leads to a projection after 8 people (I think) have submitted their projections. Likely not the best projection system to use.

Further, comparing Rizzo and Frazier is only useful if we’re talking about them both being 1B. They aren’t, Frazier is presently the Reds starting 3B. At 1B, sure, we can give Rizzo the nod.

Finally, does Rizzo really have that much more power than Frazier?

2012 ISOs

Frazier: .225
Rizzo: .178

Unless you somehow believe that Rizzo provides 26 more RBI and 15 more runs than Frazier, then Frazier was taken far too late. He could hit 30+ (prorate his 2012 numbers to 650 PA) and you’re talking about a top tier fantasy 3B.


I understand the limitations of Fans projections. Bill James’ projections are the only others posted on FanGraphs thus far, which are pretty much in agreement with Fans. When other projections come out, I imagine they’re going to be in the same ranges.

1B is not nearly as deep as it has been traditionally. Rizzo will likely be a top 12 1B by season’s end. Frazier, I’m not so certain will be a top 12 3B. And if your league has a utility slot, as most do, Rizzo is a much better pick to fill that than Frazier.

If Frazier hits 30+ HR’s, then sure he’s a top tier fantasy 3B. However the likelyhood of him hitting 30 HR’s is not very high.