Starting Pitcher SIERA Overperformers — 5/4/2022

Yesterday, I shared and discussed the nine qualified starting pitchers that have most underperformed their SIERA marks. Let’s now flip over to the overperformers. This group has posted ERAs significantly below their SIERA marks. Are these ideal sell high candidates? Let’s find out.

From disappointing surface results during his 2021 debut to microscopic sub-1.00 ERA over his first five 2022 starts, Logan Gilbert has enjoyed quite the turnaround. But all doesn’t really seem as rosy as at first glance. His strikeout rate is down slightly, his walk rate is up, and his SwStk% has tumbled into single digits. His pitch mix and velocity are identical, but his slider and changeup are simply not generating the rate of swinging strikes as they did last year. He will likely be perfectly decent the rest of the way, but given his former top prospect status and smoke and mirrors start, he makes for the perfect guy to shop around.

Are my eyes failing me or is Zack Greinke’s strikeout rate really just 6.5%? I know it’s true, because somehow I managed to roster him in not one, but two, leagues. I’m not sure where his strikeouts went as his velocity is essentially unchanged in three seasons and he has only made slight adjustments to his pitch mix. If I offered him around, is anyone buying? He’s shown the ability to outperform his SIERA in the past, but I don’t think anyone could overcome such a pitiful strikeout rate. That rate either jumps into the high teens quickly, or his ERA is going to skyrocket.

There’s Cal Quantrill again, significantly overperforming his SIERA for the second straight season. Last year, he posted soft skills, but a low BABIP & HR/FB rate, combined with a high LOB%, saved him. This year, his skills have gotten even uglier, as he’s walked the same number of batters as he has struck out! Luckily, his BABIP has fallen even further and he has allowed just one homer. It’s not like he’s allowing soft contact — his Statcast xERA is 5.74, slightly above his SIERA. I’m not sure how much perceived value Quantrill has, but as a former pretty good prospect, and coming off a sub-3.00 ERA in both 2020 and 2021, he seems like an ideal sell candidate.

Merrill Kelly’s fastball velocity has increased to a career best, which has likely helped his strikeout and SwStk% rates rebound. It’s a decent skill set, but still hard to get excited about a league average strikeout rate and single digit SwStk%. I doubt he has much trade value and he could post a high 3.00 ERA the rest of the way if his strikeout rate is maintained.

Is it cool to own Chad Kuhl? So far, it has been. Oddly, his SwStk% is at a career high, but strikeout rate his lowest since his 2016 debut! He’s a Colorado pitcher with a below league average strikeout rate, which means I wouldn’t touch him in any league format, regardless of its depth.

Alek Manoah’s sophomore season has been heavenly so far, but that .210 BABIP and insane 94.1% LOB% mean it has required quite a bit of good fortune. It’s a good thing home runs are way down around the league, otherwise that 50% fly ball rate would be scary. Now, it has helped reduce his BABIP and hasn’t led to too many dingers. A 26.9% CSW% is disappointing so far and suggests it could be tough to maintain his current strikeout rate if it doesn’t increase. I know how hard it would be to shop him around and trade him away, but man, I am almost as sure as it gets that you would bring in more value than he would earn over the rest of the way.

Miles Mikolas’ velocity is at a career low, and his SwStk% has dropped to its lowest since his 2012 debut, and yet his strikeout rate has jumped above 20% for the first time. Like Kelly above, Mikolas should be acceptable the rest of the way, but if you could get a player that earns more than just acceptable value the rest of the way, jump on the opportunity.

Joe Ryan is making my strikeout rate related bold prediction look really good so far. His spring training velocity increase has carried over to the regular season, and although his strikeout rate is virtually identicaly to his 2022 debut, his SwStk% has surged. He’s also benefiting from a drop in HR/FB rate across the league as an extreme fly ball pitcher. I own him in a couple of leagues and am not looking to sell, as a 2.90 SIERA is elite.