Stream, Stream, Stream: 2x SP 5.6-5.12

Let’s first start with results:

Week 1: 1-3, 30 IP, 3.00 ERA, 5.4 K/9, 2.3 K/BB, 1.13 WHIP (Kevin SloweyUbaldo JimenezJoe Saunders)
Week 2: 2-3, 25.1 IP, 5.69 ERA, 6.8 K/9, 2.4 K/BB, 1.74 WHIP (Joe BlantonJames McDonaldEric Stults)
Week 3: 1-2, 32 IP, 3.66 ERA, 7.9 K/9, 3.1 K/BB, 1.22 WHIP (Wade DavisCarlos VillanuevaPatrick Corbin)
Week 4*: 1-1, 16 IP, 6.19 ERA, 7.9 K/9, 2.3 K/BB, 1.94 WHIP (Julio Teheran, Jason Hammel, Garrett Richards)

Total: 5-9, 103.1 IP, 4.36 ERA, 6.9 K/9, 2.5 K/BB, 1.43 WHIP

A blowup game from Richards kept a couple of 3.00 ERAs in the dark so far this week, and the WHIPs have all been terribly ugly this week. In fact, Richards presently holds the lowest WHIP for this week of the trio with a 1.76. Yikes.

But the K rates are starting to improve — this week *may* change that — and things are generally looking pretty good. Here are this week’s picks, with the help of Twitter pal @tlschwerz:

Scott Diamond – 0.5% ESPN/4% Yahoo! – @BOS, v. BAL

Since coming off the DL, Diamond and Kevin Correia — I can’t believe it either — have acted as the de facto ‘stoppers’ for a team with a pair of struggling starters in Mike Pelfrey and Vance Worley. Diamond has pitched very well this year, adding a few Ks, dropping a few walks, slicing down the homers a bit, and has done so all with a BABIP that should come down about 50 points by the end of the season.

It’ll sound weird to non-Twins observers, but Diamond seems almost unflappable out there. He doesn’t have great stuff — an 88 mph fastball and a decent curve — but he manages to work all different parts of the zone, and has a good feel for what’s working and what isn’t. Neither of these matchups are particularly good, either, so I’m sticking my neck out a bit on this one.

Nick Tepesch – 3.7% ESPN/9% Yahoo! – @CHC, @HOU

It might be a popular thing to suggest this is a pair of downright, flat-out amazing matchups for Tepesch this week, but the Astros have picked up the past considerably, and are now a top-half offense. Still, the ‘Stros are striking out like nobody’s business, and the Cubs are still among the worst offensive teams in baseball.

Tepesch is getting grounders by the bucketful, which is a pretty good idea when guys like Andrus and Beltre are in your stable. He’s got a pretty good cutter and a nice curveball, which is good because his fastball velocity — almost a flat 90 mph — won’t typically fool anyone. Backed by the Rangers offense, I think Tepesch has a good shot to get me back towards .500.

Andrew Cashner – 8.8% ESPN/27% Yahoo! – v. MIA, @TB

Cashner’s one of a rare breed, and that is a strikeout/groundout pitcher. The strikeouts and velocity are down, but he’s also starting more than relieving, and contents can settle during transit. Still, 7.7 K/9 and a 53.8% grounder rate are healthy rates; he still has to find a way to cull the walks (4.6 per 9) though.

The walks and durability are always going to be troublesome for the fireballing righty — who hasn’t thrown more than 60 innings at any stop in his pro career — but it boiled down to Cashner and Jarrod Parker (@CLE, @SEA) for this week, and I took the gamble on the guy who has been a little better, and who I think has a little better matchups — because the Indians are hitting like nobody’s business.

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In addition to Rotographs, Warne writes about the Minnesota Twins for The Athletic and is a sportswriter for Sportradar U.S. in downtown Minneapolis. Follow him on Twitter @Brandon_Warne, or feel free to email him to do podcasts or for any old reason at brandon.r.warne@gmail-dot-com

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I created a formula ranking opponents by wOBA and K rate, 70% weighted toward wOBA and 30% toward K rate. This also takes into account how teams hit R pitching vs. L.

Based on under owned pitchers and outside of who you mention above, the best matchups this week are B McCarthy(26th best ranked Dodgers and 16th ranked Phillies), McCarthy (@LAD 26th, PHI 16th), J Hefner (CWS 29th, PIT 13th), Arroyo (ATL 21st, MIL 12th).


Cool – what about home/road? Some guys like Milone have extreme splits. Stuff like that comes into play when you’re deciding on that borderline 6th SP for the week – Cashner vs. Quintana vs. Detwiler etc.


I can’t find wOBA and K rate stats broken out by Righties vs. Lefties and layering on Home vs. Road. If you can, I’d love to incorporate home vs. road