Stream, Stream, Stream: 2x SP 7.1-7.7

Here are this week’s recommendations, with ownership figures help from Twitter pal Zach Swanson:

Phil Hughes – 16.1% ESPN/32% Yahoo! – @MIN (.311 team wOBA), v. BAL (.333)

Hughes hasn’t been all that great this year (4.82/4.40/4.43), but his peripherals are almost all identical to last year, when he was a +2.3 win pitcher with 16 wins, a 4.23 ERA, and solid strikeout rates. The penchant for home runs is a bit troubling (1.7 per 9 in ‘12/1.5 per 9 in ‘13), but the Twins don’t hit many. That may only be one half of this week’s matchups for Hughes, but it’s not a strong week for options here either.

Roberto Hernandez – 0.7% ESPN/2% Yahoo! – @HOU (.297), v. CWS (.292)

Hernandez is up to most of the same tricks that made him a solid mid-rotation guy for a spell in Cleveland, primarily including a solid groundball rate (51.4%) that while good, still pales in comparison to his impressive 57.9% career mark. But Hernandez’ is right around his career strand rate (a bit low), and that in conjunction with a less-than-ideal HR rate and lots of balls in play have made Hernandez’ pitching-slash a bit unwholesome (4.98/4.50/3.45).

It’s still possible to see some good projection for Hernandez. His strikeout rate of 7.4 per 9 is almost two full whiffs more than his career mark, and he’s shaved a full walk of his career marks too. This week is a good time to take a step forward, as both of these offenses are markedly worse than league average (.313 wOBA)

Samuel Deduno – 2.7% ESPN/3% Yahoo! – v. NYY (.297), @TOR (.318)

Career evolutions around the age of 30 rarely take place, so there’s plenty good reason for pessimism surrounding Deduno’s solid body of 43.1 innings this season. But he’s limited the free pass in ways never thought possible (2.9 per 9 versus career mark of 5.0) and gotten groundballs by the bucketload (60.7%) thanks in large part to a phenomenal amount of sink on his fastball (3.2 z-movement draws parallels to noted enthusiasts Justin Masterson and Doug Fister).

But for now, keep an eye on the walk rate. Deduno’s stuff is good enough to rack up strikeouts, but as the strikeouts rise, so too can the walks. That’s going to be the danger with Deduno, whom skipper Ron Gardenhire calls “effectively wild.” If he can stay within his game as he’s shown so far, he should be an effective spot-starter for fantasy teams this week. Deduno and Hughes will actually square off at Target Field on Tuesday.

Previous Results:

Week 1: 1-3, 30 IP, 3.00 ERA, 5.4 K/9, 2.3 K/BB, 1.13 WHIP (Kevin SloweyUbaldo JimenezJoe Saunders)
Week 2: 2-3, 25.1 IP, 5.69 ERA, 6.8 K/9, 2.4 K/BB, 1.74 WHIP (Joe BlantonJames McDonaldEric Stults)
Week 3: 1-2, 32 IP, 3.66 ERA, 7.9 K/9, 3.1 K/BB, 1.22 WHIP (Wade DavisCarlos VillanuevaPatrick Corbin)
Week 4: 2-1, 22 IP, 6.14 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 2.1 K/BB, 1.95 WHIP (Julio TeheranJason HammelGarrett Richards)
Week 5: 2-2, 30 IP, 3.60 ERA, 5.4 K/9, 1.6 K/BB, 1.23 WHIP (Scott DiamondNick TepeschAndrew Cashner)
Week 6: 2-3, 32.2 IP, 4.96 ERA, 5.5 K/9, 2.0 K/BB, 1.44 WHIP (Justin GrimmJuan NicasioHector Santiago)
Week 7: 1-0, 29 IP, 3.41 ERA, 6.8 K/9, 1.8 K/BB, 1.34 WHIP (Julio TeheranPhil HughesScott Kazmir)
Week 8: 1-0, 34.2 IP, 4.93 ERA, 7.0 K/9, 4.5 K/BB, 1.27 WHIP (Jhoulys ChacinKevin SloweyDan Straily)
Week 9: 3-1, 34 IP, 2.65 ERA, 7.4 K/9, 4.0 K/BB, 0.94 WHIP (John DanksAndrew CashnerChris Tillman)
Week 10: 4-0, 35.2 IP, 2.27 ERA, 5.6 K/9, 3.7 K/BB, 1.12 WHIP (Tony CingraniCorey KluberJohn Lackey)
Week 11: 0-1, 27 IP, 5.67 ERA, 6.7 K/9, 2.2 K/BB, 1.41 WHIP (Dillon GeeDan StrailyUbaldo Jimenez)
Week 12*: 0-2, 19 IP, 3.79 ERA, 3.8 K/9, 1.6 K/BB, 1.26 WHIP (Esmil Rogers, Kevin Correia, Eric Stults)

Total: 19-18 (.514), 351.1 IP, 4.05 ERA, 6.4 K/9, 2.5 K/BB, 1.31 WHIP
League Averages (Starters): .495 win percentage, 4.07 ERA, 7.2 K/9, 2.6 K/BB, 1.30 WHIP

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In addition to Rotographs, Warne writes about the Minnesota Twins for The Athletic and is a sportswriter for Sportradar U.S. in downtown Minneapolis. Follow him on Twitter @Brandon_Warne, or feel free to email him to do podcasts or for any old reason at brandon.r.warne@gmail-dot-com

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