The Daily Grind: 7-2-14 – Presented by FanDuel


  1. When Plans Backfire
  2. Daily DFS
  3. Thin Thursday
  4. Table

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1. When Plan Backfire

If you’re the kind of fantasy owner who likes to put a lot of schemes in play, some of them are going to backfire. I’ve been trying to dismantle Chad Young’s keepers in our staff ottoneu league so somebody else might win next season – hopefully me. Instead, one of my rivals slipped in and took a low ball offer for Yu Darvish. The return he received was consistent with the league history, but I’m quite convinced nobody is accounting for risk when they make trades. Rather than pout or mope, I have adjusted my position in the market – I’m willing to buy up elite talent if it costs 75 cents on the dollar. My team has no hope of winning this year, but I can easily keep or trade those elite types over the offseason. I only wish I had gotten involved in time for Darvish.

The moral of the story: keeper leagues often misjudge the value of prospects and “upside guys.” Sometimes you’ll want to sell (or buy), but the market dictates the opposite action. You need to decide whether or not it’s worthwhile to fight the tide.

2. Daily DFS

Early: Seven or eight games are in the early tier. Some platforms won’t include the Rockies 6:05 start time in either contest.

J.A. Happ will see a barrel of righties today. Righties with the talent to mash their opposite-handed foemen.

Vidal Nuno is always a meltdown risk.

After a bit of chatter in the comments yesterday, I decided Kevin Correia is the best type of matchup for the Royals. While they have very little power, they can spray hits all over the field. Since nobody whiffs against Correia, the BABIP gods will decide if a Royals stack will pay.

If you’re looking for an unpopular stack, the Mariners are away against mediocre righty Brad Peacock.

If you have the option, the Nationals face Tyler Matzek. The Rockies string of promotees all had a reputation as high upside pitchers before the fizzled out. It feels weird recommending against them so confidently.

Late: Seven games fall into the late batch.

Despite the Green Monster, Fenway aids right-handed hitters in a number of ways. The Sox will load up the order against lefty Travis Wood.

Miles Mikolas is allergic to walks. He issued only three in about 45 Triple-A innings. Mikolas was developed by the Padres and this is his first season with any starts since 2009.

Tyler Skaggs and John Danks make for highlighted targets at U.S. Cellular Field. You may recall that right-handed hitters bop 28 percent more home runs at the Cell than a neutral park.

3. Thin Thursday

We have nine games tomorrow. Lucky us.

Pitchers to Start: Nathan Eovaldi has fallen to 32 percent owned in Yahoo. He was an early season favorite after an apparent breakout, but regression has kicked in. His strikeout rate is back to mediocre although he has maintain an excellent walk rate. A matchup with the Phillies is a good place to target him. ESPN lists him as the starter, but most sites are showing TBA.

It’s possible to gamble on Brandon McCarthy or Vance Worley at PNC Park. If you want strikeouts, McCarthy is your guy. His xFIP is under 3.00 and PNC should help with any home run tendencies. Worley is more of a hot hand pick, but his 4.13 xFIP is offputting.

Matt Shoemaker has posted some nice ratios through his first eight start. The Royals terrorized him last time around, which killed his surface numbers (and mine), but he’s still a reasonable play. He’ll face the Astros today.

Pitchers to Exploit: Franklin Morales isn’t stretched out for a long start. If he treats the spot start like a relief appearance, he might do better than we would otherwise expect. He’s much better as a reliever. The Dodgers will benefit from the matchup.

Eric Bedard isn’t necessarily bad. He seems to have recovered enough mojo to be decent this season. But he is a left-handed pitcher opposed by the Detroit Tigers

Hitters (power): Scott Van Slyke will have the platoon advantage against Morales. Andre Ethier is banged up, so they aren’t likely to fight the obvious.

C.J. Cron sees another lefty.

If you need a spot catcher, John Jaso is your man. Remember, he doesn’t have power or speed.

Michael Choice has a bit of power even if the rest of his line is dreadful. He’ll see lefty Wei-Yin Chen.

Hitters (speed): Austin Jackson, J.D. Martinez, Rajai Davis or any other Tiger in the starting lineup is a good play. Obviously Martinez is really a power pick.

4. Table

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Scattered storms along the Northeast could affect games – particularly in New York, Baltimore, and Washington D.C.

The Link. I think you get the drill by now. Use the colors.

This post, covering one of the leading sites for daily fantasy, is sponsored and made possible by the generous support of FanDuel. FanGraphs maintains complete editorial control of the postings, and brings you these posts in a continued desire to provide the best analytical information on the latest in baseball.

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odorizzi @ NYY today at 1PM…start or sit?