The Daily Grind: 8-2-14 – Presented by FanDuel

Agenda

  1. A DFS Note
  2. Daily DFS
  3. Sunday Picks
  4. Table

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1. A DFS Note

Trades have changed some typical lineups, which can substantially alter player value. Based on yesterday’s lineups, here is a list of a few new leadoff men. They are more interesting than they were a couple days ago due to increased plate appearances.

Austin Jackson – Mariners leadoff
Mike Aviles – Indians starting shortstop, batted second last night
Rajai Davis – Tigers leadoff against a lefty
Sam Fuld – A’s leadoff against a righty
Ender Inciarte – Dbacks leadoff against a righty

Other down-in-the-order players to benefit are Allen Craig, Oscar Taveras, and Mookie Betts.

2. Daily DFS

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: Two games are early, sorry for ya. Shane Greene and Allen Webster should make for an interesting game to watch, and we’re also missing Jon Lester‘s A’s debut against Jason Vargas.

Late: We’re left with 13 games in the late slot, which is a bit unusual for a Saturday.

There’s always a chance for a handful of home runs when Miguel Gonzalez pitches at home (Camden Yards). The Mariners have more than enough lefties to take advantage of Baltimores 128 HR park factor for left-handed hitters. Unfortunately for the M’s, most of their lefties are of the occasional long ball mold.

The Indians have to be viewed as big favorites over Miles Mikolas and the Rangers. Perhaps Mikolas’ biggest issue in his brief major league exposure is an inability to get swinging strikes. Another issue is his walk rate, which was 1.6 percent in the minors this season and 7.3 percent in the majors. An elite walk rate could help him provide more adequate numbers.

Yohan Pino and Scott Carroll reprise their battle from earlier in the week – this time at U.S. Cellular Bandbox. There’s a better chance for offense with the friendly park, but we’re still talking about two mediocre lineups.

Rapid Fire: Tyler Matzek is the latest lefty on the Tigers to-smash list. Jake Peavy has returned to the NL West, but he’s in CitiField today to take on a lefty-leaning Mets lineup. I like Tyuyoshi Wada, but the Dodgers have a certain amount of potency in their bats.

Why I Didn’t Pick…T.J. House: He’s been extremely homer prone in the majors, leaving him with a 4.50 ERA and 3.68 xFIP. While he doesn’t put up great fantasy numbers, he should do well at Progressive Field with his ground ball profile. Righty power is penalized by the park, and lefties won’t have the platoon advantage. Furthermore, the Rangers have a lousy lineup and a Mikolas start should give House a chance at the win.

3. Sunday Picks

Pitchers to Start: If you’re able to grab Marcus Stroman, do so. His matchup against the Astros augers plenty of strikeouts. Sure, they could blast some home runs, but that’s always a risk.

Pitchers to Exploit: The next lefty up in Detroitland is Jorge de la Rosa. If you own him, try to trade him for Kevin Gausman. That’s what the Rockies did. In case you’re new around here and wondering why de la Rosa should be exploited, it’s mostly because the Tigers are professional lefty slayers.

Chris Tillman is pretty mediocre this season. With his peripherals, I’m somewhat shocked he’s managed a sub-4.00 ERA. Camden Yards could hurt him tomorrow against the Mariners lefty-fest.

Edwin Jackson is not right. The Cubs are trotting out their most expensive pitcher just hoping he’ll get his act together again. His last outing wouldn’t have been bad if not for the three walks.

Try to load up on Pirates against Trevor Cahill. He’s a walking meltdown these days.

I thought Clay Buchholz was turning things around after a 12 strikeout complete game shutout against the Astros. He’s since allowed 15 runs over 17 innings. The Yankees aren’t an offensive force, but they manage to squeeze runs across.

Hitters (power): Chase Headley and Stephen Drew will have to contend with Fenway’s (mostly) deep right field. They’re against Buchholz.

Travis Snider is drawing frequent starts with Starling Marte on the sidelines.

Entirely necessary Seth Smith line.

Juan Francisco is paired with Scott Feldman. Let’s dance.

Trevor Plouffe has the platoon advantage against Jose Quintana, but he’s a pretty good pitcher. I wouldn’t go out of my way to grab this matchup.

Dustin Ackley seems to be batting second these days. Kendrys Morales remains the cleanup hitter.

Hitters (speed): Arismendy Alcantara, Chris Coghlan, and Luis Valbuena are all possible assets.

Rajai Davis tends to not be available. If he is, take a shot at de la Rosa.

4. Table

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Boston has a 50 percent chance for showers, while Baltimore and Detroit could see isolated storms early during their games.

The Link. The weather is mostly unchanged from yesterday.

This post, covering one of the leading sites for daily fantasy, is sponsored and made possible by the generous support of FanDuel. FanGraphs maintains complete editorial control of the postings, and brings you these posts in a continued desire to provide the best analytical information on the latest in baseball.



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ABSkippers
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ABSkippers

Brad, in my 12-team mixed 5×5 H2H, I need a power bat on the roster that I at least have the option to plug into the lineup during the playoffs in Sept. My options right now are Chris Carter, who actually has lowered his K% in July to 27%. A Chris Carter who’s K-ing at 27% and maybe hitting .240 with a HR or two per week can be a useful thing. If he reverts to a 37 K% and puts up a 1-for-24, it’s the kind of week that can kill you. Is this lowered K% a fluke, or something that could continue?

My other option is Josh Willingham, who’s regained some of his power but is also whiffing like mad. Which one is the better speculation for September? There was a lot of roster shuffling in our league following our own trade deadline, and I expect both of them to get picked up tonight in our weekly FAAB.

Also, what do you think of Danny Salazar ROS? He’s had decent results since his return, but hasn’t been lighting up the K’s quite the same way (22%). Can we a) expect a normal usage pattern, and b) something like 3.50/1.20 with a K per IP?

Thank you for your thoughts.

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