The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for May 28

Agenda

  1. Pinch-hitting
  2. Daily DFS
  3. SaberSim Observations
  4. Tomorrow’s Targets
  5. Factor Grid

1. Pinch-hitting

EDIT: I have been let down by the WordPress scheduler, apparently. I apologize that this post came out late. I assure you it was written earlier. I hope it is still helpful.

I’m Dylan Higgins, host of the Field of Streams podcast here at RotoGraphs, and I am pinch-hitting for Brad while he is camping this weekend. Yes, calling it “pinch-hitting” is extremely low-hanging fruit. I regret nothing.

Brad left me the keys to The Daily Grind and hoped that I wouldn’t burn the place down while he is off in the woods, probably trying not to burn the place down. I am not running an Invitational contest for the day, and I am not going to try to predict the weather in the grid below (you should thank me for the latter). But I am going to run down plenty of DFS options for the weekend, because there are lots of good choices. I hope it is helpful, and I hope you readers get some sort of vacation in this holiday weekend as well.

2. Daily DFS

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: Nine games to choose from here. Rick Porcello opposite Marcus Stroman in Toronto means two pitchers that are good enough to not want to pick against but also have bad enough matchups to avoid. Kyle Hendricks may not go deep into games, but he certainly has the skills to give quality innings against a modest lineup like Philadelphia’s. Meanwhile, Jerad Eickhoff’s pronounced splits mean any left-handed Cubs batter is worthwhile.

The lefty-mashing bats in the A’s lineup are the big story here, as they get Detroit southpaw Matt Boyd. He’s worth exploiting.  Alfredo Simon and the Reds bullpen are a target as always, and Chase Anderson still has homer-itis. Homer fever? He gives up tons of homers. The Giants lineup top to bottom can certainly find success in Colorado against Eddie Butler.

Salazar could certainly rack up plenty of K’s against a swing-for-the-fences Orioles squad, but the most interesting matchup in this slate may be Michael Pineda against a Rays team that can’t hit righties opposite Matt Moore facing a Yankees team that can’t hit lefties. Plenty of strikeouts to go around and a good park for pitching. Wei-Yin Chen could also handle the heavily-left-handed-and-mostly-punchless Braves, and Carlos Rodon carries upside against a Royals lineup that looks like it is packing the last two years of expected regression into one season.

Stack Targets:  Eickhoff, Boyd, Simon, Butler, Aaron Blair, Ubaldo Jimenez.

Late: The six games in the evening slate are headlined by Yu Darvish making his 2016 debut. Many are nervous about trusting a pitcher in their return from the disabled list, but the matchup against Pittsburgh is fine and he simply has too much strikeout potential. Go for it. Kenta Maeda is looking a bit less enticing lately, especially opposite Noah Syndergaard. Meanwhile I am out just about entirely on Adam Wainwright and Dallas Keuchel, sadly, although the latter has a fine matchup if he can avoid Mike Trout.

Wade Miley is the intriguing one here. Even though the Twins have some interesting right-handed hitters, they haven’t performed this year: Minnesota is last in OPS against southpaws. That should mean good things for Miley and his solid peripherals, especially in Seattle. Speaking of last in the league in batting splits, that’s San Diego when they get righties. Your move, Zack Greinke. Despite how disappointing he’s been, you have to put trust in that matchup. I’d also like Gio Gonzalez a lot more if he wasn’t facing a Cardinals lineup full of decent right-handed bats.

Stack Targets: Wainwright, Keuchel, Jered Weaver, Phil Hughes, Cesar Vargas.

3. SaberSim Observations

SaberSim says Syndergaard is king on Saturday, but Salazar comes in at a solid second. I think that matchup with Baltimore is a very volatile one, but double-digit strikeouts are certainly in play. Darvish and Greinke are the other top options, but Hendricks is surprisingly high. Again, the ceiling is capped considering he has yet to finish the seventh inning this year (and only twice went past six), but the favorable matchup is undeniable.

SaberSim hates Juan Nicasio in Texas even more than Simon and Vargas. Wainwright and Jimenez are also predicted as favorable pitchers to match up against, and the Cubs are unsurprisingly the favorite hitter stack per the tool.

4. Tomorrow’s Targets

Pitchers to Start: I am big on streaming pitchers, but Sunday is a tough one. Nate Eovaldi and his newfound strikeout rate get a good matchup in Tampa Bay, while Martin Perez comes off a scoreless outing to face the Pirates. Bartolo Colon gets the Dodgers, who look a little broken, but he offers little upside and has to go opposite Clayton Kershaw. Archie Bradley is very unproven at the Major League level, but at least he gets to face the Padres.

I think the most intriguing option is Nick Tropeano, whose 2.86 ERA is a bit encouraging right before his 1.47 WHIP and 4.38 FIP bring expectations right back down. He gets an Astros squad that leads all of baseball in strikeouts, however, and Tropeano can miss some bats when he isn’t issuing walks or giving up homers. I’m hoping for the ball to stay in the yard and for Houston to swing themselves into trouble.

Also consider: Nate Eovaldi, Martin Perez, Bartolo Colon, Archie Bradley.

Pitchers to Exploit: The good news: Mike Pelfrey is throwing strikes. The bad news: they’re getting hit. A lot. The A’s have hitters that can take advantage.

Also consider: Tom Koehler, Ricky Nolasco, Mike Clevinger.

Hitters (power): I know I just suggested Tropeano against the Astros, but if you aren’t using him and you want a boom-or-bust power option, take a look at Luis Valbuena. He didn’t go yard on Friday, but he did in the three games prior. He’s warmed up, he loves to hit righties, and he could help keep Tropeano’s HR/FB rate inflated… if he makes contact.

Also consider: Sean Rodriguez.

Hitters (speed): Assuming Billy Burns is not available to you, Coco Crisp should be and seems to be running a bit again this year. The veteran is matched up against Pelfrey, who not only allows plenty of runners to reach but is also poor at keeping them from stealing bases. Additionally, the Tigers have allowed 30 stolen bases through Friday, which is tied for most in the American League.

Also consider: Chris Coghlan, Jonathan Villar.

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.





Dylan assists in producingFanGraphs Audio, Effectively Wild, and the FanGraphs Live Twitch channel. He also enjoys the Waxahachie Swap (RIP), the Air Bud principle, and the Oxford comma. You can Tweet him about any of those things @dhhiggins.

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zurzlesmember
7 years ago
Reply to  Dylan Higgins

I picked up Matt Moore last night and set my alarm to get him in my lineup before games started (FAAB-ish ESPN league so waiver claims don’t process until 11am) and I was so tired I forgot I even picked up a pitcher in that league. I benched his 20 point start and kept Pineda’s -11 point start active.