The Daily Grind: Moustakas, Kelly, Mayberry, Marisnick

Agenda

  1. Farnsworth on Moustakas
  2. Daily DFS – Archer
  3. GB / FB Splits
  4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Kelly, Sanchez, Mayberry, Marisnick
  5. Factor Grid

1. Farnsworth on Moustakas

The early returns on Mike Moustakas have been encouraging. He’s spraying the ball to all fields, and some teams have already ceased shifting him. Will he continue his hot hitting ways? Resident swing expert Dan Farnsworth says it’s unlikely.

Moustakas’ issue has been that his hands and shoulders all turn as a unit and rotate toward the ball, cutting off the amount of time his bat is in the way of the pitch’s path. He looked like he tried to improve that last year by getting his back elbow working before his hands started, but he was still moving the hands and shoulders together rather than getting that rollback look with the back arm like the best hitters. Even on his better hits this year, it still looks the same, and often he’s down through contact rather than on a slight upward path with the pitch. I think he’s just hitting the right part of the ball in the early going, but I don’t expect much different results without a big change in approach or mechanics.

Bummer. I’ve still grabbed a few shares of Moustakas using sell low parts like Taijuan Walker. Most owners are happy to get anything in return for Moose.

2. Daily DFS – Archer

Yesterday’s Grind

There are about a dozen viable stack options today. I trust you can find those. The Padres worked out well yesterday at Coors Field. They’ll look to double down against another lefty – Tyler Matzek.

Chris Archer has looked like a premier power pitcher through his first 19.2 innings. I’m not sure I buy a breakout. His average fastball is up to 96 mph – one tick higher than his career velocity. His fastball and slider have played as plus-plus pitches. Unfortunately, his repertoire is rounded out by a below average sinker and a changeup. The change is a decent pitch, but Archer doesn’t seem to have much confidence in it.

He’s up against the Red Sox at Tropicana Field today. I can’t quite bring myself to recommend him in DFS play, especially when Carlos Carrasco (U.S. Cellular) can be had for an additional $100.

Stack Targets: Matzek, Tim Lincecum, Jason Marquis, Jason Vargas, Hector NoesiKyle Lobstein, Bud Norris, Taijuan Walker

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

Jeff produced over 40 names today, so be sure to check out the full list (linked above). Here are a few I like best.

Billy Butler vs. Hector Santiago
Carlos Santana vs. Noesi
Joey Votto vs. Mike Fiers
Wilmer Flores vs. Trevor Cahill
Josh Harrison vs. Travis Wood
Salvador Perez vs. Tommy Milone

All six hitters have at least a .800 OPS against the split they’ll face today.

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Kelly, Sanchez, Mayberry, Marisnick

Pitchers to Start: Joe Kelly has always flummoxed me from an analysis perspective. He’s not particularly well-regarded within the industry – perhaps because his command and control sometimes evaporate. However, I always see a plus fastball and a couple good breaking balls.

Through 12.2 innings, Kelly is averaging 97 mph on the gun. It’s too soon to get excited, but his swinging strike rate is up to 10 percent. He’s yet another starter with a mediocre sinker. His version is at least visually impressive – enough so that I wouldn’t advise him to de-emphasize the pitch. It does hurt his strikeout potential. He’ll pitch against the Rays at pitcher friendly Tropicana Field.

Also consider: Jimmy Nelson, J.A. Happ

Pitchers to Exploit: I understand that Aaron Sanchez is a well-regarded pitcher. He looks the part, but he certainly doesn’t act it. He leans heavily on a plus sinker, but the rest of his repertoire is forgettable. His curve has some potential, but it hasn’t induced many whiffs this year. He also has a 95 mph four-seamer, a change, and a cutter. He doesn’t really use those last two pitches.

Sanchez frequently pitches in some of the most hitter friendly environments in baseball. It could be a long and ugly season. He’ll see the Orioles tomorrow.

Also consider: Vance Worley, Jason Hammel, Eric Stults, Dillon Gee, Nate Karns, Mike Pelfrey, Kyle Kendrick,

Hitters (power): The Mets have not faced many left-handed pitchers. When they have, John Mayberry has hit in the heart of the order. He’s a classic lefty masher with a career .270/.325/.536 line against southpaws. He’ll see Stults.

Also consider: Cody Asche, Eric CampbellTravis Snider, Yonder Alonso, David Peralta, Ike Davis, Seth Smith

Hitters (speed): In his third shot for a major league job, Jake Marisnick is showing improved contact. The result is a .324/.351/.529 line. If he can maintain his eight percent whiff rate with an aggressive approach, he could produce a .270/.310/.400 type line with 10 home runs and 25 stolen bases.

Do note, there is some wishcasting in that sample line. For tomorrow, he’ll have the platoon advantage against Happ. That’s all that matters.

Also consider: Odubel Herrera, Alejandro De Aza, Eric Young, Ender Inciarte

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

It should be a rain free day, although there is a small risk in Pittsburgh.

The Link. You have a typical assortment of choices, so it’s a good day to include stadium in your process.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment. 





You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam

15 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
eelz
8 years ago

Stack target, Jerome Williams?