The Daily Grind: No Words About Dietrich Enns

I wanted to go with “No Column for Old Enns,” but I decided the pun was too tortured for the headline. However, it’s just tortured enough for the first sentence.

AGENDA

  1. So Here’s the Deal
  2. Weather Reports
  3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
  4. SaberSim Says…
  5. TDG Invitational

1. So Here’s the Deal

It seems I have another conflict. Tomorrow, I’m getting up at 3:00am to drive eight and a half hours north. If I arrive on time and have the energy, I’ll pen a short column at that time. Said timeliness and energy likely depends on just how terrible D.C. traffic is around 7:30am. It’ll either be stop-and-go or stop-and-park. I considered going later to avoid the D.C. morning rush hour, but then I’d just have to sit in normal interminable D.C. traffic AND Pennsylvania afternoon rush hour.

Either way, there will be no Invitational. And either way, I’ll see you again next week. Oh, if you’re only here for the baseball words, you can skip this section. Helpful of me to say that now, huh?

2. Weather Reports

The White Sox game may see some spotty storms. It doesn’t look like they’ll hang around long enough to risk a postponement.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Early Slate: The cute little early slate includes just four pitchers – Gerrit Cole, Dinelson Lamet, Luis Castillo, and Drew VerHagen. If you’re the kind of person who enters the full 150 entrees into a contest like the FanDuel Squeeze, you can practically account for every affordable combination of players. Well… not really, but you’ll never get closer. Castillo is my pick for best pitcher in this slate, closely followed by Cole. VerHagen is the obvious dud, making him an interesting contrarian choice.

Stack Targets: VerHagen, Lamet

Main Slate: That leaves us with 10 games this evening. Jacob deGrom is the priciest arm on FanDuel, although I think everybody will rightfully focus their attention on James Paxton, Yu Darvish, and Danny Salazar. deGrom is opposed by the Phillies, a team that has a top five offense over the last month – albeit against a soft schedule. To be fair, nearly every team has a soft schedule when it comes to the pitchers they face. Only recently, it looked like the supply of stud arms was growing too quickly for the number of teams in the game. Now, at least three-fifths of starters are scrubs.

Moving on, Paxton has a friendly matchup against Mike Trout and friends – “friendly” so long as he avoids Mr. Trout’s bat. Paxton is on fire since late June, having posted over 40 FD points in seven of his last eight starts. The other start was a 35 point performance against the Angels…

Darvish is visiting Arizona – far from an ideal locale for a DFS pitcher. However, with the possible exception of Coors Field, I don’t usually worry about Darvish’s matchups. If I can afford to use him, then I will. He rarely throws more than seven innings, but that isn’t a problem for $9,700.

Salazar is massively volatile. He’s kind of like Kevin Gausman in that he has a long history of first half struggles followed by second half dominance. After totaling 153 points over his last three starts (average of 51 per start if you can’t do that math), it looks like Salazar is back to his old habits. He’s set to face the Rays.

But wait, there’s more! Sonny Gray is visiting an inconsistent Blue Jays offense. Gray tends to play as a high floor, decent ceiling option. Absolutely nothing wrong with that. For the exact opposite profile, look to Brad Peacock at former U.S. Cellular Field. The White Sox lineup can’t hit righties. You have to watch out for short starts from Peacock.

A whole slew of names are playable if unspectacular. Think Lance Lynn, Tanner Roark, Zach Davies, and Marco Estrada. I’ll note, Estrada appears to be back on track after a lengthy slump. A few options, namely Carlos Rodon, Vince Velasquez, and Tyler Skaggs, offer more volatility. Rodon and Velasquez in particular could easily range from between -5 to 60 points.

Stack Targets: Chris Smith, Wade Miley, Anthony Banda, Blake Snell, Dietrich Enns

4. SaberSim Says…

deGrom, Paxton, Darvish, Peacock, and Snell are the top rated pitchers today. I’m obviously out on Snell. I’m really unsure why he’s getting ranked so highly. I’ve compared his projected components to his actual performance, and they seem completely divorced. It’s like the simulator has created a Pod-Snell.

Bryce Harper, Giancarlo Stanton, George Springer, Yoenis Cespedes, and Michael Conforto top the charts today. Seems Velasquez is on the doodoo list. Values include Jesus Aguilar, Enrique Hernandez, Adam Lind, Neil Walker, and Austin Barnes (if healthy).

5. The Daily Grind Invitational

Yesterday’s contest didn’t fill. Which is a shame from my perspective since I would have continued my much needed winning streak. We’ll head on over to FanDuel today where the contest runs regardless of fullness.



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CJ03
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CJ03

Rodon has pitched well in the last month (2.74 xFIP, 2.92 SIERA, 14.3 K/9), but I still don’t think I can justify streaming him against the Astros..