Top-75 Stats-Based Hitting Prospects

It’s time for the bi-weekly look at under-the-radar hitting prospects. There seemed to be some confusion on the point of the rankings which is to find under promote good prospects. Today, I will try to clear up the and dive into a few hitters not represented on top-100 prospect lists.

The last time I ran this report, there was some questions on why some hitters were missing. After investing, I found out it’s was a database issue which missed some newly signed players, changed the position labeling, and mislabeled when players lost their rookie eligibility. I’ve made sure everyone is included but added a few adjustments.

  • No positional adjustments are included in the final values.
  • Some players who lost their rookie eligibility last season are included. If I don’t include these players, some player like Victor Robles would be excluded. I hope to have an answer to this issue soon.

Besides these changes, here is what the lists are and aren’t.

Are

  • A supplement to Eric’s and Kiley’s prospect rankings. This set utilizes stats, age, and some regression to find potential overlooked prospects before they start showing up on major prospect lists.

Aren’t

  • A complete list of every prospect. Some will be missed. I don’t care as I’m digging for one-offs. The most likely reason for not being on the list is they haven’t performed, not played much (major factor), or have graduated to the majors. Major league results are also not included.
  • The order doesn’t matter at all, at least to me. Why one person is #8 over some guy at #14 compared to other lists is irrelevant. These top prospects are already owned in most leagues. I feel the order only matters to desperate fan bases looking for some much-needed hope.

And now for the current rankings using 2017 and 2018 data.

Top-75 Hitting Prospects
Rank Name Position 2017-2018 PA Age 20-80 scale
1 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 3B 762 19 74
2 Ronald Acuna Jr. OF 713 20 64
3 Fernando Tatis Jr. SS 945 19 63
4 Juan Soto OF 305 19 58
5 Kyle Tucker OF 895 21 58
6 Alex Verdugo OF 739 22 58
7 Bo Bichette 2B/SS 879 20 56
8 Rafael Devers 3B 358 20 54
9 Luis Urias 2B 903 21 54
10 Ryan McMahon 1B/3B 686 23 54
11 Eloy Jimenez OF 644 21 53
12 Franchy Cordero SS/OF 450 23 53
13 Brendan Rodgers 2B/SS 749 21 51
14 Willie Calhoun 2B 903 23 50
15 Jake Bauers 1B 797 22 49
16 Tyler O’Neill OF 765 23 49
17 Willy Adames SS 811 22 49
18 Franmil Reyes OF 802 22 48
19 Franklin Barreto 2B/SS 714 22 48
20 Amed Rosario SS 425 21 47
21 Dominic Smith 1B 748 23 47
22 Ozzie Albies 2B/SS 448 20 47
23 Gleyber Torres SS 291 21 46
24 Carter Kieboom SS 621 20 45
25 Jo Adell OF 529 19 44
26 Derek Fisher OF 521 24 44
27 Austin Riley 3B 782 21 44
28 Clint Frazier OF 554 23 44
29 Josh Naylor 1B 874 21 44
30 Lewis Brinson OF 340 23 43
31 Ronald Guzman 1B 548 23 43
32 Victor Caratini C 463 24 43
33 Victor Robles OF 511 21 43
34 Keibert Ruiz C 672 19 43
35 Danny Jansen C 688 23 42
36 Yordan Alvarez 1B 592 21 42
37 Colton Welker 3B 625 20 42
38 Yusniel Diaz OF 741 21 42
39 Michael Chavis 3B 545 22 41
40 Raimel Tapia OF 617 24 40
41 Rhys Hoskins 1B 475 24 40
42 Jason Martin OF 843 22 40
43 Ryan Mountcastle 3B/SS 773 21 40
44 Jordan Luplow 3B/OF 784 24 40
45 Austin Hays OF 748 22 40
46 Nick Senzel 3B 700 23 40
47 Taylor Trammell OF 888 20 40
48 Matt Olson 1B 343 23 39
49 Dustin Fowler OF 445 23 39
50 Justin Williams OF 736 22 39
51 Francisco Mejia C 702 22 39
52 Carson Kelly C/3B 471 23 39
53 Brandon Lowe 2B 836 23 39
54 Daniel Vogelbach 1B 790 25 38
55 Yoan Moncada 2B 361 22 38
56 Miguel Andujar 3B 522 22 38
57 Brett Phillips OF 716 24 38
58 Keston Hiura 2B 538 21 37
59 Ryder Jones 3B 580 24 37
60 Josh Ockimey 1B 844 22 37
61 Hudson Potts 3B 872 19 37
62 Tyler Wade 2B/SS 682 23 37
63 Akil Baddoo OF 564 19 36
64 Peter Alonso 1B 760 23 36
65 DJ Peters OF 948 22 36
66 Luis Santana 2B 365 18 36
67 AJ Reed 1B 891 25 36
68 Chris Shaw 1B/OF 789 24 36
69 Estevan Florial OF 632 20 35
70 Scott Kingery 2B 603 23 35
71 Isaac Paredes 2B/SS 830 19 35
72 Nolan Jones 3B 579 20 35
73 Edwin Rios 1B 669 24 35
74 Jesus Sanchez OF 826 20 35
75 Elehuris Montero 3B 527 19 35
Based off 2017 to 2018 production

Yusniel Diaz – Dodgers

The 21-year-old outfielder, like most player featured here, has an average profile. All of his future traits range from 45 to 55 with a 45 overall future grade.

His production has taken a step forward this year. In Double-A, he’s posting a .305/.415/.465 triple slash line with a 15% walk and strikeout rate. Additionally, he has eight stolen bases to go with his six dongs.

One issue keeping his value down is he’s can’t play center but doesn’t have the projectable power to play a corner spot. I’m not sure if he’s a must add in a dynasty league but is an interesting bat to track as he gets closer to the bigs.

Brandon Lowe – Rays

I’m going to have to rename my program 45-55 because that’s the only player types it digs up. The 23-year-old second baseman stock has really taken off this year. In Double and Triple-A, he’s hit .305/.405/.566 with 17 home runs and eight steals. He’s pretty much a dynasty must add at this point (if he’s not already). Since the Rays aren’t contending so he’ll continue to get fast-tracked to the majors.

I’m wondering if his skill grades are dated and he’s more of a 50 to 55-grade second baseman which is in line with a recent Eric Longenhagen quote on him.

… Lowe’s batted-ball profile is also changing, his ground-ball rate dropping from 42% to 35%. We had him projected as an average everyday player at second base, but it appears there might be another gear here.

He’s a hitter to keep an eye on.

Josh Ockimey – Red Sox

The 23-year-old first baseman is starting to develop an interesting profile. While drafted for his plus power, he’s developed a nice eye at the plate posting a walk over 10%. At times, the walk rate was boosted by intentional walks (nine in High-A last season) but he’s only had one this season in Double-A (17% BB%).

His power has not been elite and hampered by a strikeout rate between 25% to 30%. I’m not sure there is enough power for someone stuck at firstbase or as the DH. Maybe may be a Justin Upton-clone but at first base.



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Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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Jobu
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Jobu

Jeff, I am still very confused. Based on this table, am I supposed to interpret that guys like Franchy Cordero and Dominic Smith will have more impact than Rhys Hoskins? Or am i processing this info incorrectly? Please help.