Top-75 Stats-Based Pitching Prospects

It’s time for my latest computer based pitching prospects. In my last article, there was some confusion on how the rankings are to be used. Here’s a breakdown of what the rankings are and aren’t.

Are

  • A supplement to Eric’s and Kiley’s prospect rankings. This set utilizes stats, age, role, and some regression to find potential overlooked prospects before they start showing up on major prospect lists.

Aren’t

  • A complete list of every prospect. Some will be missed. I don’t care as I’m digging for one-offs. The most likely reason for not being on the list is they haven’t performed, not played much (major factor), or have graduated to the majors. Major league results are also not included.
  • The order doesn’t matter at all, at least to me. Why one person is #8 over some guy at #14 compared to other lists is irrelevant. These top prospects are already owned in most leagues. I feel the order only matters to desperate fan bases looking for some much-needed hope.

As for this pitcher ranking, I tinkered around with the setting and put a little less weight on age for level and more on results. I missed Chris Paddack and I want to include similar pitchers. While Paddack still didn’t make the list, he moved up the rankings (lack of playing time an issue).

Top-75 Computer Based Pitching Prospects
Rank Name TBF Age 100 Scale
1 Kolby Allard 992 20 68.7
2 Mike Soroka 742 20 68.6
3 Triston McKenzie 675 20 60.0
4 Nick Neidert 855 21 56.2
5 Luiz Gohara 643 21 54.7
6 Beau Burrows 878 21 54.6
7 Jack Flaherty 707 22 54.5
8 Forrest Whitley 465 20 54.3
9 Jose Suarez 582 20 53.5
10 Peter Lambert 943 21 53.1
11 Sixto Sanchez 563 19 53.0
12 Bryse Wilson 863 20 51.9
13 Michael Kopech 902 22 51.5
14 Jaime Barria 654 21 51.3
15 Genesis Cabrera 930 21 51.0
16 Enyel De Los Santos 977 22 50.8
17 Sean Reid-Foley 947 22 49.9
18 Dustin May 835 20 49.6
19 Logan Allen 862 21 48.4
20 Spencer Adams 1066 22 48.0
21 Jesus Luzardo 443 20 47.8
22 Adrian Morejon 508 19 47.7
23 Brent Honeywell 568 22 47.3
24 JoJo Romero 906 21 47.3
25 Zack Littell 942 22 47.2
26 Freddy Peralta 751 22 47.0
27 Zac Gallen 960 22 46.6
28 Ariel Jurado 979 22 46.2
29 Wennington Romero 920 20 46.1
30 Foster Griffin 1053 22 46.1
31 Ryan Castellani 1033 22 46.1
32 Caleb Ferguson 719 21 45.9
33 Grant Holmes 644 21 45.8
34 Touki Toussaint 1002 22 45.5
35 Justus Sheffield 747 22 44.6
36 Bo Takahashi 853 21 44.4
37 Franklin Perez 371 20 44.3
38 Roniel Raudes 748 20 43.8
39 Joey Wentz 694 20 43.5
40 Jose Mujica 802 22 43.3
41 Tyler Mahle 564 22 43.0
42 Ian Anderson 657 20 43.0
43 Sandy Alcantara 910 22 42.9
44 Pedro Avila 890 21 42.7
45 Brett Kennedy 835 23 42.7
46 Tobias Myers 532 19 42.6
47 Mitch Keller 825 22 42.3
48 Shane Bieber 983 23 42.3
49 Dennis Santana 732 22 42.2
50 Hunter Greene 281 18 42.1
51 Tyler Alexander 974 23 42.0
52 Pablo Lopez 858 22 42.0
53 Bryan Mata 599 19 41.9
54 Ljay Newsome 938 21 41.9
55 Tyler Phillips 758 20 41.7
56 Brad Keller 580 21 41.6
57 Devin Smeltzer 907 22 41.4
58 Vladimir Gutierrez 796 22 41.3
59 Lewis Thorpe 679 22 41.2
60 Dedgar Jimenez 947 22 41.2
61 Reggie Lawson 612 20 40.4
62 Luis Ortiz 588 22 40.3
63 Jake Woodford 901 21 40.2
64 Jonathan Hernandez 793 21 40.2
65 Edgar Arredondo 744 21 40.0
66 Luis Pena 989 22 40.0
67 Luis Patino 381 18 40.0
68 Jen-Ho Tseng 978 23 39.3
69 A.J. Puk 533 22 39.1
70 Chance Adams 906 23 39.0
71 Walker Buehler 412 23 38.9
72 Andrew Jordan 771 20 38.4
73 Stephen Gonsalves 757 23 38.3
74 Jose Rodriguez 970 22 38.1
75 Corbin Burnes 900 23 37.9

Genesis Cabrera

The reason the 21-year-old lefty made this list was his 9.8 K/9 in 16 Double-A starts. Before the season, Eric Longenhagen wrote the following on him.

A quick-armed lefty, Cabrera was up to 95 for me in the fall and has some changeup feel. He displays significant mechanical variation, and I put a 30 on his breaking ball. He projects as a reliever for me right now, but there’s rare arm acceleration here for a lefty, and I think he could have an impact changeup one day.

So, it’s a 95-mph fastball and nothing else coming into the season. John Eshleman of 2080 gave the following report on him from the Southern League All-Star Game

Cabrera’s delivery and stuff position him for a future bullpen role. His delivery is too difficult to repeat consistently but the juice on his future-plus fastball gives him some rope out of the pen., particularly when he locates it down, and the slider, while not a bat-misser, gives him an average secondary that will play in middle relief. There’s more than a LOOGY here, as the fastball runs away from righties enough for me to trust him for full-inning work.

Basically, it’s the same report, a one pitch lefty. His chances of producing at the major league level are thin. He’s a hard pass for me.

Enyel De Los Santos

The 22-year-old righty, has been having a strong season in Triple-A with a 1.81 ERA and 8.6 K/9. The last report from FanGraphs have him with three average pitches (92-95 mph fastball, change, and curveball).

… garnering swings and misses on his 92-95 mph fastball both within the strike zone and above it and with his fading changeup. De Los Santos also has a solid-average curveball that he can bend into the zone for cheap, early-count strikes the third time through the lineup, but he’s becoming more adept at burying it in the dirt when he’s ahead. He generally lives in the strike zone and is a good bet to start; the only knock I’ve heard from scouts is that the stuff plays down due to poor extension, which might explain the modest strikeout rate despite good reports on the stuff.

From this season, MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki reported on De Los Santos and the curve may be a slider.

“He’s pounded the strike zone with a well above-average fastball,” Phillies director of player development Joe Jordan said Saturday. “His slider has continued to get better. He’s had a good feel for a changeup since he’s got here. He’s been a pleasant, pleasant surprise, just from the standpoint that I didn’t expect him to be maybe quite as polished, quite as calm and confident.”

I love to target pitchers like De Los Santos in dynasty leagues. He’s off top-100 list but on the team’s top-30’s so he may be under the radar for most owners. He’s near the majors so we’ll know soon if he has the endurance and ability to make it in the majors. Finally, he has a developed arsenal and doesn’t rely on one gimmick. I’m all for owning him where available.

Zac Gallen

The 22-year-old righty is performing OK for the Marlins Triple-A team (4.24 ERA, 8.8 K/9). This production may be a bit of a letdown after he posted a 10 K/9 and 3.48 ERA in four starts last season with the Cardinals Triple-A team.

Gallen has four average pitches (91-mph fastball, curve, change, and cutter) and average command. Mr. Average meets the same criteria as De Los Santos in that his owners won’t have to wait long for him to make his major league debut.

His 4.24 ERA doesn’t bother me as he currently has a .370 BABIP. The biggest issue with Gallen was that both his walks and strikeouts took a major step backward. Gallen is a step behind De Los Santos for me, mainly based on his 2018 struggles. If he gets a major league call-up, I’m interested in adding him to see if he’s made an improvement to warrant the promotion.



Print This Post

Jeff writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

newest oldest most voted
roydjt
Member
Member
roydjt

First of all, thank you for coming up with this tool! Next, I’m going to selfishly ask for more information because us nerds can never be satisfied. Can you please add the organization and maybe the level for each player? Thank you!