Week 21 FAAB Estimates

I feel I’m entering uncharted waters as the FAAB results are agreeing and conflicting with the narratives. For the first few weeks, my FAAB predictor was working fine and then right before the trade deadline, most bids were a third of the expected values. While I speculated owners were hoarding FAAB for trade deadline moves, I had no evidence yet for the assumption. I’ll show the assumption might have been right and what to expect to spend this week’s bids.

Overall Trends

When I last ran this report (sorry for missing last week, but I was at the SABER Seminar) on the 34 leagues in the NFBC Main Event, the estimates were far from the results. Two ideas crossed my mind as causes. First, dead owners were no longer spending, or they were saving every dollar for deadline deals, especially those who had the most FAAB. It seems like the FAAB hoarding situation was correct as spending spiked as the highest percentage of remaining FAAB was spent last week.

Besides the percentage being the highest, it was a four-week high in total dollars spent.

With the values on the rise, I’m going back to the old formulas but will definitely readjust them next week as this is the first non-trade deadline FAAB period.

Estimates

Here are the 10 most added players from CBS Sportsline along with the FAAB estimates. Additionally, I’ve included the 10 least owned players for those owners in deeper leagues.

Week 21 FAAB Estimates
Name Week 19 Ownership Week 20 Ownership Onwership Jump Estimated FAAB
Scott Alexander RP | LAD 2.0% 29.0% 27.0% $110
Lance Lynn SP | NYY 67.0% 83.0% 16.0% $54
Tyler Glasnow SP | TB 22.0% 42.0% 20.0% $58
Pedro Strop RP | CHC 31.0% 50.0% 19.0% $116
Ryan Madson RP | WAS 5.0% 25.0% 20.0% $100
Mallex Smith CF | TB 32.0% 49.0% 17.0% $100
Austin Hedges C | SD 34.0% 48.0% 14.0% $63
German Marquez SP | COL 48.0% 60.0% 12.0% $69
Ryan Borucki RP | TOR 17.0% 30.0% 13.0% $76
Trevor Cahill SP | OAK 44.0% 56.0% 12.0% $53
Aledmys Diaz SS | TOR 9.0% 21.0% 12.0% $66
Brad Keller SP | KC 11.0% 17.0% 6.0% $19
Brian Johnson SP | BOS 7.0% 16.0% 9.0% $18
Hunter Renfroe RF | SD 8.0% 15.0% 7.0% $45
Jeff McNeil 3B | NYM 5.0% 14.0% 9.0% $42
Franmil Reyes OF | SD 6.0% 14.0% 8.0% $35
Tommy Milone SP | WAS 6.0% 13.0% 7.0% $11
Blaine Hardy RP | DET 3.0% 12.0% 9.0% $8
Addison Reed RP | MIN 6.0% 12.0% 6.0% $21
Jacob Nix SP | SD 0.0% 6.0% 6.0% $2

Alexander and Madson were the least owned coming into the week with the highest jumps in ownership. I’m a little surprised they are so close together. Madson is likely to have the job for only a week while Alexander could hold it for a month. Besides this pair, not many must owns popped up.

Overall, I don’t feel good about these values. I really want to see how this week goes and then re-evaluate the process and recalibrate the formulas. Happy fishing.



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Jeff writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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