http://rotoanalysis.com/expected-hrfb-rates-and-expected-home-runs/

What’s your feedback on this formula?

xHR is a more than obvious one: Formula: xHR= AB * CT% * Fly Ball% * xHR/FB….i actually called this an expected homerun score in a faketeams post i posted w/out ever reading this.

…I’m more concerned with trying to project a HR/FB. Does he simply provide ranges that are too inclusive? He’s not really taking into account IFFB% which inherently reduces HR/FB making any FB that was a IFFB a 0 chance of ‘falling’ for a HR.

Thanks

]]>http://rotoanalysis.com/expected-hrfb-rates-and-expected-home-runs/

]]>i’m projecting his HR/FB next year to be 17.5% based on the average distance from like distances (i think i used 5-7 players that included salty,raburn,mccutchen,avila,etc…if i remember correctly). I landed on 17.5% HR/FB and a 31% FB giving him 19 HR.

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