Archive for February, 2015

The Beginners Guide to the Positional Adjustment

Getting newcomers on board with Wins Above Replacement has a number of challenges, but the way we measure and evaluate defense is typically one of the biggest sticking points. Getting an open-minded person to believe in wOBA instead of average and RBI isn’t that difficult. Getting someone to accept that there’s more to base running than the number of stolen bases is pretty easy. Convincing them that it’s useful to compare players to replacement level is a bit harder, but nothing really compares to the questions people have about defense.

There’s good reason for this. Again, a thoughtful person can see the flaws in using errors or fielding percentage, but it’s harder to sell the merits of runs saved metrics for a number of reasons. If you want a little more information on how we measure defense and why we do it that way, check out our beginner’s guide to measuring defense. Today, we’re going to consider a corollary to the actual measurement of defense which is the positional adjustment.

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Stats to Avoid: Batting Average

Batting average is the most recognizable statistic in the game. It might be the most famous statistic in sports and it’s probably up there with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) among the most popular statistics about anything anywhere on the planet. Even people who don’t like or watch baseball understand what batting average means. Just like how you know a singer is famous because your mother knows who they are, you know batting average is huge because you never have to explain it to anyone.

Which is why it’s so difficult to remove it from our vernacular. Batting average is built into the language of the sport, but it’s simply not a useful statistic and if you want to analyze a player properly, it’s something you don’t want to pay close attention to at all.

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The Beginner’s Guide to Replacement Level

Like any good acronym, the letters in WAR each stand for something. The “W” stands for wins, which is something with which we’re all pretty familiar. The “A” stands for above, which is just an adjoining word, but the “R” stands for replacement which is a place where newcomers sometimes get lost. What is replacement level, why does it matter, and how do you calculate it? If WAR compares players to replacement level, to understand WAR we need to understand R.

Let’s start from the beginning. Replacement level is simply the level of production you could get from a player that would cost you nothing but the league minimum salary to acquire. Minor league free agents, quad-A players, you get the idea. The concept is pretty tidy. These are the players that are freely available and if five of your MLB level players came down with the flu, you could go out and acquire replacement level players without really giving up anything you value other than their union mandated payday.

In other words, if you had no one on your roster on April 1st and just needed to populate a team, you’re generally signing replacement level players.

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