Kevin Youkilis Is Gone, But Hope Isn’t

The Boston Red Sox won their first game of the season 9-7 against the New York Yankees. As a result, their 1-0 record had them in first place in the American League East. They haven’t been in first place since.

They’ve been close — they were a half-game off the pace as recently as July 3 — but right now they are six games behind the Yankees and also looking up at the Tampa Bay Rays.

The latest playoff odds have them with a 23 percent chance of playing meaningful games in October.

So — can they get back into this race, even with all the injuries they’ve suffered?

There is still a remote chance that a team in the AL Central or West could capture the wild-card berth into the playoffs. Realistically though, it will come down to Boston, New York and Tampa to decide the AL East crown and wild-card winner.

The problem is, Boston is in the most perilous position of the division’s three top teams. It’s a position made all the tougher with the recent news that Kevin Youkilis will miss the remainder of the season after having surgery on his injured thumb.

The Red Sox entered the season with a different approach from previous years. Highlighted by the departure of Jason Bay, the front office made several moves designed to maximize the defensive assets of the club, which drew some criticism; the belief was that if you have money, why spend it on defense?

Playoffs or not, hopefully the success of the Red Sox and the San Diego Padres outweigh the failure of the Seattle Mariners and help put to rest the stereotype that teams must build through offense. Ironically, though, Boston’s offense has been really good this year, highlighted by turnaround campaigns from David Ortiz and Adrian Beltre (Beltre smacked a grand slam just last night). Youkilis’ second straight .300/.410/.550 campaign certainly helped, as well. In fact, according to park-adjusted wOBA, the Red Sox have had baseball’s best offense, although that will likely change with Youkilis out.

The defense, as advertised, has been solid.

The problem in Beantown has been that the pitching, which should be elite, has been merely above average. Josh Beckett has faced injury problems and general ineffectiveness while John Lackey has been far less than the Red Sox paid for. Daisuke Matsuzaka continues to post his frustratingly high walk totals and pitch at his agonizingly slow pace. If it weren’t for Jon Lester’s great season and Clay Buchholz slashing his home run rate enough to soak up innings, the Boston rotation would be a problem.

As it stands, the starters have been adequate while the bullpen has let them down with one of baseball’s worst FIPs. Make no mistake about Daniel Bard, who is proving that his 2009 was no fluke. While Bard appears ready to assume the closer’s role, the rest of the unit has slid backward. Jonathan Papelbon looks even more on his way out with a decidedly average season. His strikeout rate has dropped five points and his home runs (six allowed) already exceed his 2009 total (five).

Manny Delcarmen, who seemed so promising just two years ago, has lost all ability to record strikeouts and has just 25 this season compared to 22 walks. Hideki Okajima has gone from striking out a quarter of all the hitters he faced in 2007 and 2008 to striking out just 16 percent this year. When you’re the Red Sox and your second-best relief pitcher has been Scott Atchison (no offense to Scott), something has gone wrong.

Not all is lost, though. One thing the Sox have going for them is simple: They play their divisional superiors a lot more this season — including six games against the Rays and 10 against the Yankees, starting tonight. They have the ability to take games from the teams above them.

That might be a tall order, though: Boston is sub-.500 against both teams this season (4-8 versus the Rays, 3-5 versus the Yankees).

What has to worry Boston is how 2011 looks. Obviously the Yankees are not going anywhere, and while the Rays seem destined to lose Carl Crawford there remains a figurative battalion of young prospects behind him ready to contribute. The Red Sox are not going to be able to count on another fluke season from Beltre, either. He’s nearly certain to decline his player option given the performance he’s put up. Ortiz is a free agent as well and Papelbon heads to his final arbitration year. Boston allocated a team-record $168 million in payroll in 2010 and has more than $100 million already guaranteed for next season while several significant holes remain.