Picking Apart the Phillies Flaws

Bold, sweeping declaration: The 2011 Philadelphia Phillies are good at baseball.

At present, the Phillies boast a hefty run differential of +174 (second to only the Yankees) and are on pace for a franchise-record 106 wins. Chief among their many merits? One of the best rotations you’ve ever seen. Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee are both Cy Young worthies, and Cole Hamels has been roughly their equal when healthy. Even Vance Worley has thrived in spot duty.

Given the strength of the Phillies’ starting pitching and given that they’ll almost certainly enjoy home-field advantage throughout the postseason, consider them the favorites for the belt and the title.

Of course, no such thing as a fait accompli in baseball. The short playoff series lends itself quite nicely to fluke-ish outcomes and minor miracles. In a game with so much structural, built-in parity, nothing is to be assumed in October. But beyond those annual considerations, do the Phillies, the best team in baseball, have a soft, hidden underbelly that could be exploited in the postseason?

One would expect a team playing .657 ball to do lots of things well, but is that the case with the ‘11 Phillies. The numbers sayeth …

Statistic Phillies 2011 NL Rank
wRC+ 5th
Rotation WAR 1st
Bullpen WAR 10th
UZR 12th

To the surprise of no one, Philly’s weapons-grade rotation tops the loop in WAR. But the rest is something of a mixed bag.

The bullpen seems to be a problem, no? However, consider that, because of Philly’s ability to pitch deeply into games, they’ve logged the fewest bullpen innings of any NL squad (Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, and others will tend to do that for you). So the sample size is not as large as you might think, and, because of the strength of that rotation, the Phillies depend upon their bullpen less than most. As well, consider that the Phillies were without the services of Brad Lidge until late July. So while the bullpen would seem to be lacking, the Philllies, thus far, haven’t suffered as a result.

The defense, according the UZR, doesn’t grade out especially well, but consider that, a, Philly pitchers tend to miss a lot of bats and, b, even at the team level one year (or less) of defensive data may not mean too much.

As for the Philadelphia offensive attack, it’s mostly a matter of not hitting left-handers …

Statistic Phillies 2011 Rank

wRC+ vs. RHP 5th
wRC+ vs. LHP 11th

Such a split is not surprising, perhaps, on a team whose top right-handed power source is part-timer John Mayberry. And this is the case despite the fact that Citizens’ Bank Park tends to be a fairly accommodating environment for right-handed power hitters (who, in turn and of course, tend to hit lefties fairly well). And even so, the Phillies are much less potent when a port-sider is on the mound for the opposition. This raises the matter of whether this particular Philly weakness might be exploited during the postseason.

Now let us state the obvious: to be exploited by a lefty, one must first face a lefty. The good news for the Phillies is that, among likely NL playoff opponents, no team has a bounty of left-handed starters. The Arizona Diamondbacks, who will almost certainly face the Phillies in the NLDS, have only Joe Saunders from the left side. The Milwaukee Brewers have Randy Wolf and Chris Narveson, but Narveson is unlikely to be part of the playoff rotation. As for the Atlanta Braves, no lefty figures to be a postseason starter.

If the Phillies do as expected and make the World Series? Largely, the story continues. The Red Sox? One lefty likely in the playoff rotation. The Yankees? Same story. The Tigers? Not a single lefthander to be found. The “sum of all fears” scenario, however, is an encounter with the reigning AL-champion Texas Rangers. The Rangers, one might notice, will perhaps trot out three lefthanders in the playoffs, and two of those lefthanders — C.J. Wilson and Matt Harrison — are the Rangers’ most effective starters. Scaled across a seven-game series, that might come to five starts against lefties. Suffice it to say, the Phillies would prefer other circumstances. They might, for instance, prefer that the AL West flag go to the Angels, who, like the Tigers, have no lefties in the rotation.

Of course, Philly might well prevail regardless of opponent. But for the smoothest road ahead, the Phaithful should summon their energies against a possible World Series match-up with the Rangers.