Archive for December 2009

A second look at scoring bias.

It’s all a matter of your point of view.

You, too, can be a sabermagician.

Fancy run estimators like linear weights explained in layman’s terms.

How well do we know what we think we know?

Pretty accurately, but not perfectly.

Looking at updating a projection in-season. Beware of math.

A closer look at how regression to the mean affects players at the extremes.

Regression to the mean: good for groups, but it can’t tell the future. A graphical analysis.

Does it help us predict future performance?

Why we should be spending less time arguing about BABIP, and more time looking at how to convert DIPS theory into runs.

A preview of shape of things to come.

Why some arguments don’t need to be had.

Comparing FIP, xFIP and tRA.

Or deal with the draft. You choose.

The funny thing about the improbable is that it’s not impossible.

Introducing Simple Zone Rating, and looking at infield defense since 1871. Yep, 1871.

How much of an effect does an umpire have?

Should Micah Owings hit or pitch?

Sometimes a big lead just means you have that much farther to go to get back to the bag.