Average and prime year projections, part 2

Jaime Garcia / SP / St. Louis
Average Year Projection:
199 IP / 3.53 ERA / 1.31 WHIP / 14 W / 10 L / 154 SO / 191 H / 70 BB
Prime Year Projection:
214 IP / 3.15 ERA / 1.21 WHIP / 15 W / 9 L / 177 SO / 196 H / 63 BB

Christian Friedrich / SP / Colorado
Average Year Projection:
203 IP / 3.78 ERA / 1.29 WHIP / 13 W / 10 L / 168 SO / 194 H / 68 BB
Prime Year Projection:
212 IP / 3.30 ERA / 1.21 WHIP / 15 W / 10 L / 183 SO / 194 H / 62 BB

Justin Smoak / 1B / Seattle
Average Year Projection:
.301 / .391 / 24 HR / 35 2B / 1 3B / 94 RBI / 84 R / 80 BB / 118 SO / 2 SB / 1 CS
Prime Year Projection:
.316 / .412 / 29 HR / 36 2B / 1 3B / 105 RBI / 96 R / 88 BB / 109 SO / 3 SB / 1 CS

Jhoulys Chacin / SP/RP / Colorado
Average Year Projection:
198 IP / 3.84 ERA / 1.32 WHIP / 13 W / 10 L / 175 SO / 190 H / 72 BB
Prime Year Projection:
209 IP / 3.42 ERA / 1.23 WHIP / 15 W / 10 L / 194 SO / 192 H / 65 BB

Domonic Brown / OF / Philadelphia
Average Year Projection:
.274 / .332 / 17 HR / 38 2B / 4 3B / 87 RBI / 85 R / 47 BB / 123 SO / 16 SB / 6 CS
Prime Year Projection:
.288 / .352 / 22 HR / 38 2B / 4 3B / 97 RBI / 97 R / 53 BB / 115 SO / 18 SB / 5 CS

Kyle Gibson / SP / Minnesota
Average Year Projection:
196 IP / 3.94 ERA / 1.33 WHIP / 13 W / 11 L / 167 SO / 193 H / 68 BB
Prime Year Projection:
209 IP / 3.52 ERA / 1.23 WHIP / 15 W / 11 L / 186 SO / 196 H / 62 BB

Wade Davis / SP / Tampa Bay
Average Year Projection:
196 IP / 3.90 ERA / 1.36 WHIP / 13 W / 11 L / 160 SO / 193 H / 73 BB
Prime Year Projection:
207 IP / 3.51 ERA / 1.28 WHIP / 15 W / 10 L / 176 SO / 196 H / 69 BB

Jordan Lyles / SP / Houston
Average Year Projection:
202 IP / 4.04 ERA / 1.30 WHIP / 13 W / 12 L / 173 SO / 197 H / 65 BB
Prime Year Projection:
210 IP / 3.60 ERA / 1.23 WHIP / 14 W / 11 L / 188 SO / 198 H / 60 BB

Mike Minor / SP / Atlanta
Average Year Projection:
201 IP / 4.11 ERA / 1.31 WHIP / 13 W / 11 L / 179 SO / 199 H / 64 BB
Prime Year Projection:
210 IP / 3.63 ERA / 1.24 WHIP / 14 W / 10 L / 192 SO / 201 H / 60 BB

Logan Morrison / OF/1B / Florida
Average Year Projection:
.307 / .391 / 21 HR / 40 2B / 2 3B / 90 RBI / 83 R / 87 BB / 108 SO / 2 SB / 1 CS
Prime Year Projection:
.320 / .412 / 27 HR / 41 2B / 3 3B / 101 RBI / 95 R / 93 BB / 99 SO / 3 SB / 2 CS

Jenrry Mejia / SP/RP / NY Mets
Average Year Projection:
195 IP / 4.21 ERA / 1.35 WHIP / 13 W / 11 L / 170 SO / 193 H / 71 BB
Prime Year Projection:
207 IP / 3.76 ERA / 1.27 WHIP / 14 W / 11 L / 185 SO / 197 H / 65 BB

Aroldis Chapman / SP / Cincinnati
Average Year Projection:
199 IP / 4.24 ERA / 1.37 WHIP / 13 W / 11 L / 186 SO / 195 H / 77 BB
Prime Year Projection:
209 IP / 3.77 ERA / 1.28 WHIP / 14 W / 12 L / 200 SO / 197 H / 70 BB

Casey Kelly / SP / Boston
Average Year Projection:
198 IP / 4.25 ERA / 1.34 WHIP / 13 W / 11 L / 176 SO / 196 H / 70 BB
Prime Year Projection:
209 IP / 3.79 ERA / 1.26 WHIP / 14 W / 11 L / 188 SO / 199 H / 65 BB

Mike Leake / SP / Cincinnati
Average Year Projection:
207 IP / 4.20 ERA / 1.29 WHIP / 13 W / 11 L / 154 SO / 204 H / 64 BB
Prime Year Projection:
216 IP / 3.78 ERA / 1.23 WHIP / 14 W / 12 L / 166 SO / 206 H / 59 BB

Alex White / SP / Cleveland
Average Year Projection:
206 IP / 4.18 ERA / 1.31 WHIP / 13 W / 11 L / 148 SO / 204 H / 66 BB
Prime Year Projection:
217 IP / 3.74 ERA / 1.23 WHIP / 14 W / 12 L / 162 SO / 206 H / 60 BB

Mental Health and the CBA
A particular bit of language in the latest CBA could have negative consequences for some players.

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Mike Podhorzer
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Mike Podhorzer
Since you never answered in the initial post, where are these projections coming from? Are they just your own opinion and entered manually or some projection system? The Aroldis Chapman projection seems quite suspicious. An average year walk rate of just 3.5? And a prime year strikeout rate of just 8.6? Also, are the prime year projections just the best marks in each category throughout the player’s career or does it represent the player’s stat line during just one season dubbed as his best? These stat lines are pretty meaningless without knowing the answers to these questions and clarifying exactly… Read more »
Milby
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Milby

Agreed Mike. 

I love to see these sort of projections, but without context it’s difficult to understand what we’re looking at.

Matt, would you mind giving us an idea of where these numbers came from?

Matt Hagen
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Matt Hagen

Whoa, take it easy.

These stats are simply one man’s opinion.

They are based on analyzing major league norms, drawing comparisons between each minor leaguer and major leaguers with a similar skill set, each players minor league numbers and skill set, and my gut feeling.

Average year projection is what to expect in a normal, non prime year.  Prime year projection would be the numbers I’m expecting in a prime year, typically 27-31.

I hope this helps.  I spend a lot of time drawing comparisons and finding a balance between optimism and pessimism.

Nutlaw
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Nutlaw

Also, all of your pitchers are projected with nearly identical hit rates (okay) and walk rates (not okay). There really isn’t very strong variation in those numbers.

Matt Hagen
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Matt Hagen

Nutlaw, if you look at a list of the top ERAs in the major leagues, there simply isn’t a lot of variation in walk rate, apart from some extreme cases.  And I don’t expect any of these pitchers to be extreme cases.

Chris
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Chris

Chapman and Chacin having nearly identical BB rates? Outside of Chacin’s recent MLB games he has only one season of over 90+ IP where he posted a 3BB/9. Chapman who is known to over throw and be wild has 90+ IP in Cincy’s AAA affiliate with a 4.94BB/9.

Do you really think that Chacin’s history of solid walk rates will be countered by patient hitters at the MLB level and that Chapman will get himself under control? I don’t.

I do like the Morrison and Friedrich predictions though. Do you crunch any of these guys’ numbers with an MLE calculator?

Travis
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Travis
To defend Matt on the Chapman versus Chacin argument.  Chacin has been a professional pitcher for much longer and with each jump in level, his walk rate has increased, illustrating that more experienced hitters back off of his borderline stuff once they get a handle on what he’s throwing. As for Chapman, he’s still so raw, it’s difficult to project what his walk-rate will be like.  Given Chapman’s raw talent and his ability to learn quickly (keep in mind he was only throwing 97-100 mph when Cincy signed him, and with a few minor tweaks to his delivery he’s ramped… Read more »
Nick
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Nick

An average year from Logan Morrison probably won’t consist of 22 HR. Maybe he’ll hit 20 in his prime, but he has really zero power right now. 1 in 100 AB’s, 6 in the minors this year…

Chris
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Chris
Travis: To be fair, pre-2009 Chacin’s BB rate actually dropped at every level (R-A+) and he probably would have benefited by staying in AA for all of 2009 and learning better either A. better control or B. get ahead of guys with his fastball earlier. Chacin is the type of pitcher that if he can command his fastball early in the game he will dominate you and he’s been showing that more and more this season. Other than his first outing back in the rotation in (Aug 17 against LAD) he’s posted a 3.15 BB rate in 20 IP. That… Read more »
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