The daily grind: 4-16-13

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner. Use the team-by-team TDG eligible players spreadsheet for more detailed information.

Today’s grind

The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:

Pitcher (to start): Dillon Gee got rescheduled to today. Some readers are not as keen on Gee as I am.

If only A.J. Griffin were more available. Wily Peralta is plenty available but he’s also a wild card.

Pitcher (bum): Yesterday I fed you a list of exploitable pitchers. Today I’ll pare it down to my top two.

Mike Pelfrey‘s match-up against the Angels is dangerous. Thus far, their bats have been quiet. Everyone expected the Angels to score runs in bunches with Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, and Josh Hamilton trouncing opposing pitchers. So far that has not come to pass—the team is currently 22nd in runs scored—but I’m confident in saying that the runs will come. And Pelfrey is as good a place as any to start.

Jeremy Guthrie was a solid pitcher in Baltimore for a long time. And after some hiccups last year, he seems to be a solid pitcher again. I’ve listed him here because the Braves have been quite good at punishing mid-tier pitchers in the early going.

Hitter (power): Daniel Nava seems like a good grab for today. He offers balanced production in the non-steals categories.

Evan Gattis has been fun to watch thus far. As I mentioned yesterday, I think he’ll find himself “figured out” soon, but the grace period should still be open.

Hitter (speed): Juan Pierre should be putting balls in play, which translates about 25 percent of the time into a steal opportunity.

I expect Xavier Paul to start, although like Nava he’s more of a well-rounded choice. Unlike Nava, he might also sneak a bag.

Tomorrow’s grind

Pitcher (to start): Yesterday I learned that Bud Norris is lightly owned. I then verified that he’s basically been the same pitcher who posted a 4.23 FIP last season. So use him with caution against the hot-hitting A’s.

J.A. Happ is worth targeting if you’re in a rather deep league.

Pitcher (bum): I’ve never been a fan of Alfredo Aceves as a starting pitcher, so I think the Indians will do just fine.

Here’s a potential slop fest – Tommy Hanson and the Angels versus Vance Worley and the Twins. I think I’ll have a Fanduel lineup with just Angels and Twins.

The Incompleat Starting Pitcher
The end of the nine-inning start and how we got here.

Hitter (power): Alberto Callaspo offers neither power nor speed, but he can post a nice average when matched against a guy like Worley.

I think Chris Heisey against John Lannan should benefit the hitter.

Hitter (speed): Aaron Hicks has another good match-up if the Twins are going to stick with him. If not, go grab Darin Mastroianni for steals duty. He’s a one category contributor, but he’ll swipe bases in bulk.

Nate Schierholtz has been the Cubs’ top hitter thus far. He offers a little power and speed against guys like Justin Grimm.

Weather watch

The Mets and Rockies look like they’ll have to battle occasional snow showers for their double-header, but the forecast isn’t as bad as it was yesterday and they should be able to play.

The Reds, Phillies, Cardinals, and Pirates may be interrupted by thunderstorms, but it looks like they’ll be short.

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callaspo is not playing in the twins series


Doesn’t Aaron Hicks have to actually, you know, get on base to steal bases?  I mean, his OBP is .128.  He has stolen one base this year.  I think I’d prefer to take my business elsewhere.

Brad Johnson
Brad Johnson

I’m a little thin on SB guys right now. I agree in general, but at some point he should be able to recover from an .087 BABIP. Couple that with a contact oriented opposing pitcher and his match-up looks a little better.

So basically I’m saying that in certain match-ups, I expect a strikeout rate no worse than 25% and a BABIP no worse than .275. Given his ability to draw walks, that’s about a .300 OBP. Which is hardly good but also generates a fair amount of SB attempts.

You have to squint, but I think that logic adds up.